저자: MichaelBurry/소속미상 · 외국인
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영상 결론: 마이클 버리는 현재 시장을 역대 최대 투기 거품으로 보며, 거품 붕괴 시 투기자들이 큰 손실을 입을 것이라고 경고한다. 버리의 경고: 2022년 2월 트윗에서 '사람들이 시장에 대해 묻는데 답은 단순하다. 역대 최대 투기 거품이며 모든 것에 걸쳐 있다'고 주장했다. 비트코인, 전기차, 밈주식을 닷컴 및 주택 거품에 비유했고, 시장이 '칼날 위에서 춤추고 있다'고 언급했다. 거품 근거 주장: 개인투자자 43%가 시장이 거품이라고 응답한 eToro 설문을 인용했다. 주가가 실적으로 설명 불가능한 수준까지 올랐고, 주식이 이익 대비 과도하게 비싸게 거래되고 있다고 봤다. 반론(영상 측): 고평가 섹터는 있으나 S&P500 편입 기업의 2021년 2분기 실적은 91%가 발표했고 87%가 주당순이익이 추정치를 상회했다. 2009년 4분기 이후 최고 실적 성장률이 나오고 있다. 테슬라 등 기술주는 2021년 초 거품 영역에 가까웠으나 순환매로 압력이 완화됐다. 가치 및 섹터: 금융주 등 일부 자산은 여전히 저평가 상태다. S&P500은 1970년대 이후 드물게 3년 연속 상승 가능성이 있다고 봤다. 장기적으로 분산투자로 손실에 대비하라고 권고했다. 밈주식·암호화폐: 게임스탑, AMC 등 밈주식은 실적이 아닌 온라인 열기로 오른 것으로 설명했다. 버리는 암호화폐 레버리지를 이해하지 못하면 암호화폐를 이해하지 못하는 것이며, 투자자는 돈을 잃을 각오를 해야 한다고 말했다. 유동성: 2020년 3월 대폭락 이후 은행 유동성에 힘입어 주식, 채권, 원자재, 스니커즈 등 모든 자산에 투기가 번졌다. 인도 등 신규 계좌 급증도 언급되었다. 상승은 차입금이 시장에 흘러들어온 결과이며, 빌린 돈을 회수해야 할 상황이 오면 문제가 된다고 경고했다. 결론: 버리의 경고는 과거 여러 차례 무시되었으며, 시간이 지나야 정확했는지 알 수 있다는 것으로 마무리된다. 출연자 전망: 영상은 시장 전반에 대한 버리의 '거품' 주장을 중심으로 하며 특정 종목의 단기 가격 방향 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
michael bury warns of greatest stock market bubble ever shocking investor news michael bury from the big short has returned to twitter with a dire warning about the state of the stock market bury sees a huge stock market bubble in 2022 bigger than anything we've seen before could this lead to a stock market crash michael bury just revealed about the market crash and why he called the upcoming crash the mother of all crashes the famed investor who predicted the us housing market collapse and the gfc says we're living in the greatest speculative bubble of all time could he be right again when michael bury the u.s hedge fund manager immortalized in the big short talks people listen so it naturally rattled investors when he recently emerged from a 10-week twitter hiatus to tweet people always ask me what's going on in the markets it's simple greatest speculative bubble of all time in all things by two orders of magnitude hashtag flying pigs 360.
that's a pretty damning appraisal of the market with a clear warning bury has repeatedly chastised institutional investors for excessive greed wild speculation taking on too much risk and chasing unrealistic returns so what does this mean the hashtag likely refers to those old words of wisdom about the risk of greed when investing bulls make money bears make money but pigs get slaughtered burries tweet also echoed his other previously called out cautions for example he's compared the hype around bitcoin electric vehicles and meme stocks to the dot-com and housing bubbles and said earlier this year that the stock market was dancing on a knife's edge how will this affect the investors according to a recent global survey conducted by etoro there is an agreement among 43 percent of retail investors that markets are in a bubble but are they correct in thinking this and is bury on the money this time in my opinion after watching the stock market closely probably not it's worth remembering that while valuations are high equities are currently cheap compared to bonds as stock indices edge towards all-time highs we've seen an array of new retail investors joining the market over the last 18 months many of these investors are operating a 60 40 strategy of equities and bonds and are concerned about the same issues as their institutional counterparts such as inflation with the increase in retail participation in the market and with lots of bullish investor sentiment it begs the question who is left to buy it's argued that it's not as bad as it looks but a stark reminder that the market is pointing towards a more modest return rather than a market fall returns are likely lower in the second half of 2021 compared to the very strong first half which saw 38 new all-time highs year-to-date what to keep an eye on it seems that bury fear's stock prices have been driven way above their actual value with investors paying a significant amount more for stocks than earnings can justify he warns that the greedy will get slaughtered if this boom ends in a collapse and the bubble bursts it's true that valuations are high in some specific sectors but this is supported by solid growth and climbing revenues 91 of the companies in the s p 500 have reported earnings for q2 2021 of these 87 percent have reported earnings per share above estimates we're currently seeing the highest year-over-year earnings growth since q4 2009.
it's also true that tech assets boomed at the start of 2021 admittedly veering into bubble territory stocks like tesla and neo soared at a rate that earnings couldn't match pressure has eased during the year with growth in the tech sector slowing as investors rotated towards cyclical equities these include companies in discretionary industries that are more in demand when the economy is doing well such as restaurants hotel chains high-end retail and car manufacturing meanwhile other assets in the market are still undervalued such as in the financial sector the s p 500 looks set for a third year of straight gains a rare achievement which has only occurred twice since the 1970s showing there is still plenty of upside to be found are there any benefits to a market bubble one of the other bigger arguments for stock market bubble is the recent investment into meme stocks these are stocks that see an increase in value because of online hype rather than how well the company performs from gamestop to amc meme stocks have become an overnight sensation in global stock markets these mean businesses are often struggling or trying to implement a turnaround plan with professional investors shorting them provoking communities of retail investors to unite and support a brand they love as always investors should think long term by diversifying their portfolios to guard against potential losses particularly if they're concerned about a market bubble investing revolves around rewards and risks during the normal market condition investors get money from investments that flow on risk-free bonds in blue chip stocks that only have minimal risks and even no risk on treasury bonds it's hard to find a company right now that isn't overvalued but because the interest rate is very low and money is easy to access people just keep on going to find a new way to profit people also jump into the world of cryptocurrencies an asset class that clashes with the institution's interest and doesn't produce real money at all burri has taken a distinct swing in the cryptocurrency bubble saying all hype speculation is doing is drawing in retail before the mother of all crashes fomo parabolas don't resolve sideways when crypto falls from trillions or meme stocks fall from tens of billions main street losses will approach the size of countries history ain't changed murray stated in one of his tweets as well that no matter how much you think you know about cryptocurrencies if you don't know much about the leverage in cryptocurrencies then you don't know anything about cryptocurrencies there's nothing wrong with investing in cryptocurrencies but you need to prepare yourself and be comfortable with losing your money this is what's happening in the entire market right now which led bury to his great speculations across the markets the most significant sell-off in the stock market history which was seen back in march 2020 has been followed by the wild rebound in global market investors backed by the record liquidity from banks have dived into different asset classes the statement of brewery that speculation is widespread in all things gives a clue at the crazy joyride seen by asset classes from sneakers to lumbers to traditional asset classes like bonds equities and certain commodities that which market observers have called the everything bubble has been driven by a massive influx of investors across the globe a lot of people are making a so-called investment fueled by social media trends there's a massive record of dematerialized accounts opened in india in the recent 14 months as citizens who can't go out of their homes dived into the stock market with their savings through a mobile trading application in all of the asset classes right now most people think that they're genius because everything they bought has gone up however they don't realize that the reason why what they bought has gone up is that borrowed money is just being pumped into that market consider what would happen if the borrowed money had to be taken out to pay tomorrow although bury's warnings have always been discounted only time will tell if bury's warning was accurate time will tell if investors will get slaughtered like pigs just like what the ancient wall street saying goes bulls make money bears make money but pigs get slaughtered that's all for today
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