저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
요약 보기
2018년 초 주식시장이 버블 형성 단계에 있으며 급등 후 폭락(최대 50%) 가능성이 있다는 주장. 그러나 단기적으로는 한 차례 더 상승(멜트업)할 수 있다고 봄. 그랜섬은 한 지인이 주식 투자를 위해 집을 팔려는 여성을 만난 일화를 들어 과열 신호로 해석함. 시장 심리(스토리)가 가격보다 중요하며, 버블 국면에서는 운용사가 소외되는 것을 더 두려워한다고 설명. 2018년 1월 3일 서한에서 단기 멜트업에 대비하라고 경고했고, 이 과정에서 투자자 고통이 클 것이라고 말함. 미 금융기관 설문에서 펀드매니저 70%가 글로벌 경기를 late cycle로 봤고 S&P500 평균 목표는 3,100 수준이었음. 그랜섬은 S&P500이 3,150을 넘을 수 있다고 봄. 반대 의견으로 뱅크오브아메리카는 연말 S&P500 3,000을 예상했고, 켄 피셔도 약세장은 완만하게 시작하므로 미국 주식이 올해 상승할 것이라고 봄. 그랜섬은 인플레이션 상승을 시장이 용인할 수 있으나, 1,500억 달러 감세안이 기업 실적 개선으로 단기 효과만 낼 것이라고 봄. 전반적으로 미국 주식 고평가 경고가 핵심 메시지.
다듬은 글
the secrets of an investor genius jeremy grantham gmo the notorious bear and gmo co-founder has touchy-feely evidence of a market bubble in the making and a battle plan when legendary investor jeremy grantham heard a colleague recount sharing a bus ride from new hampshire to boston with a young woman who wanted to sell her house to invest in stocks alarm bells went off this he thought signaled the euphoria seen before a market crash jeremy grantham and the secrets of a genius investor so let's get right into it it was late january and the us stock market had roared into 2018 posting new highs for six straight trading days the woman wasn't satisfied with her 300 000 house crawling up a few percentage points in value when stocks had risen by double digits annually since 2009.
she wants to be in the market says grantham who co-founded gmo in 1977 from his office on the boston harbor and she was reaching for a 20 return to the mind of grantham who called the major bubbles of 2000 in 2007 this story was more evidence of a melt-up in the stock market which he had warned about just weeks before this is when the market shoots up after several years of rising prices signaling the final stages of a great bubble near to bursting according to the 79 year old u.s stocks soared in 2017 with the s p 500 index returning 22 percent and continued to push higher this year before volatility shook the market in february after the index tumbled by 10 percent from an all-time peak on january 26th to this year's trough on february 8th analysts expect new highs in 2018.
as a value investor grantham has done plenty of homework on the stock market over the past half century he was not alive to witness the 1929 bubble but has studied it closely it's true that data can flash warning signals that a bull market is heading for a steep fall but it's the touchy-feely the traces of euphoria in ordinary situations that is particularly telling grantham says the stories are more important than the price he says be prepared for the fact that the market can break your heart on the upside the psychology of a bubble can be incredibly painful for asset managers with careers at stake according to grantham in normal times it's reasonable to believe clients are concerned about how well a manager can handle a downturn but in a bubble forget it he says clients care much much more about underperforming all their friends on the golf course grantham gmo's chief investment strategist has decades-long grasp of markets to inform his bets his office on rose wharf with its art its sofa and a balcony looking out to the harbor has a lived-in feel redolent of history and study newspapers are spread about the room and beyond his desk are several sculptures including a buddha a photograph of the destruction left by boston's great 1872 fire leans against one wall in a melt up it's easy to stand out for lagging performance while everyone is bragging about their gains sitting on a pile of cash can cost asset managers their clients so many managers stay invested they're leaping around with great energy comparing notes says grantham they simply can't stand that one or two of their rivals are playing the game and making a lot of money and making them look bad when stocks plummet the situation is markedly different everyone becomes catatonic trying to avoid discussing how much they lost he explains no one gets fired in that moment clients wait until the event concludes before sorting through what happened grantham warned in a january 3rd letter that in his very personal view investors should brace for a melt up in the near term prudent preparation for a downturn will take a psychological toll he notes know how much pain you can stand because the average client is going to lose patience the market instead of going down not only goes up but goes up at a faster rate than normal he says you're going to feel dreadful seventy percent of fund managers view the global economy as late cycle the highest level since january 2008 according to a bank of america merrill lynch survey conducted in early february these managers expect on average an s p 500 peak of 3 100.
the index which measures the performance of large u.s companies has largely recovered from its early february drop we thought a pullback would be normal says jill kerry hall an equity strategist with bank of america merrill lynch since 1930 the u.s stock market has fallen by at least five percent three times a year on average she says noting that such a drawdown hadn't previously happened since june 2016.
stocks haven't looked cheap before they're plunged the s p 500's 12-month forward price earnings ratio traded around a 15-year high of more than 18 times according to hall in november the p e ratio was 18.3 times the highest since may 2002 she notes we had so much excitement in january there's at least some chance that this thing will blow up now game over says grantham but i think it will recover and go to new highs grantham expects the melt up to eventually lead to a 50 drop in the stock market if not more if the market came crashing down this fall he says it would look like a perfect bubble paul isn't worried bank of america strategists expect the s p 500 to finish 2018 at 3 000 she points out ken fisher the billionaire founder and co-chief investment officer of fisher investments likewise expects u.s stocks to rise this year bear markets always begin gently and quietly fisher says in a phone interview a short sharp break off of all-time highs is never how bear markets begin instead they tend to fall by two to three percent a month over their entire duration with most of the decline coming in the last 40 percent bear markets begin by lulling in greater fools with peaceful minor declines says fisher nobody gets lulled by what just happened founded in 1979 fisher investments manages about 100 billion dollars for high net worth clients and institutional investors globally just under half of the camas washington-based firm's assets are tied to institutional clients fisher hasn't seen broad euphoria suggesting that big bad terrible thing so it's higher prices ahead he would also expect a major pickup in initial public offerings before potential collapse the market reflects how comfortable and confident investors feel grantham says their confidence is tied to inflation they hate it profit margins they love them large and the pace of growth and gross domestic product the us has been working well on all three fronts he says with very low inflation record corporate profits and steady not too rapid gdp growth though inflation has remained stubbornly low in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis recent signs point to a rise the u.s saw its fastest wage growth since 2009 in january up 2.9 percent from a year earlier according to a february 2nd labor department report the drop in u.s stocks steepened after the announcement still grantham believes the market may ultimately forgive a modest rise in inflation as the federal reserve has aimed for and missed its two percent target for years people will say heck we wanted to get to two percent we wanted labor to get paid a little more we've been starving these guys since 1970 for god's sake let's pay them something because they're all tapping out their credit cards default on credit card debt have picked up grantham notes a situation that eventually saps the economy in his view it's rational and ethical to hope wages rise but what do we do as a capitalist society we freak out that it may impact profit margins the 1.5 trillion dollar tax cut package passed in december slashed the corporate rate to 21 from 35 percent and should for a few quarters offset concerns over margins as companies earnings will benefit in the short term bank of america's equity strategists expect earnings per share to rise in 2018 as a result of the tax overhaul but like grantham they don't foresee lasting impacts the benefit is going to get competed away paul says we wouldn't really expect it to have a longer-term impact now grantham has a drier view of the u.s stock market than many analysts aaron brown head of asset allocation for ubs asset management isn't too concerned about the s p 500 being historically expensive the index's composite has shifted over the decades toward tech companies among others that tend to trade at higher p e ratios she says recent market volatility produced buying opportunities she adds while fundamentals have remained healthy or they're leading investors toward a full melt up the s p 500 soared about seven percent over a few weeks in january if instead of turning down in february shares had continued to climb at a slightly slower pace through march grantham thinks the index might have crossed 3150 points as a full-fledged bubble then the question is how are the touchy feelys doing grantham says if they kept advancing like january they'd be magnificent in two months ]
Comments 0