저자: 미상 · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 마이클 버리는 주식시장 과열과 인플레이션 우려를 근거로 시장 하락 위험을 경고하고, 캐시 우드와 ARK의 성장주 베팅에 반대 포지션을 취하고 있다. [시장 과열 경고] 버리는 주식시장 투기 수준이 1929년 대폭락 이전 이후 보지 못한 수준이며, 자산 고평가가 닷컴 버블 붕괴 전보다 심하다고 주장한다. 버리는 지정학적·경제적 혼란이 1970년대보다 크다고 보고, SEC와 연준이 이를 막기 위한 조치를 취하지 않는다고 비판한다. [리비안·테슬라 관련] 버리는 리비안 상장 후 시가총액이 1,200억 달러 수준인데 차량 판매량은 156대에 불과하다는 점을 지적한다. 버리는 일론 머스크가 개인 부채 상환을 위해 테슬라 주식을 매도하고 있을 수 있으며, 닷컴 버블 때처럼 테슬라 가치가 최대 90% 하락할 수 있다고 언급한다(이후 해당 트윗은 삭제됨). [버리의 과거 이력] 버리는 2000년대 주택시장 버블을 예측해 2007~2008년 붕괴 때 큰 수익을 거둔 것으로 알려져 있다. 그는 현재의 높은 인플레이션이 임금 상승을 따라잡지 못해 저소득층에 가장 큰 타격을 준다고 본다. [버리 vs 캐시 우드] 버리는 자신의 운용사 Scion을 통해 ARK 혁신 ETF에 대한 공매도(약 23.55만 주, 약 3,100만 달러 규모 풋옵션 포함)를 취한 것으로 보도되었다. 반대 입장의 우드는 현재 인플레이션을 일시적(transitory)이라고 보며, 헤드라인 인플레이션이 꺾이거나 경기침체 우려가 커질 때 파괴적 혁신 전략이 다시 보상받을 것이라고 주장한다. [인플레이션과 성장주] 버리는 인플레이션이 지속되면 연준이 금리를 올리고, 적자 기업이 많은 성장주·벤처·사모펀드의 자금조달 비용이 올라 밸류에이션이 타격받는다고 본다. [ARK 성과와 전망] ARK는 2020년 약 150% 수익을 냈으나 2021년 들어 연초 대비 약 6% 하락했고, 같은 기간 다우 대형주 지수는 약 20% 상승했다. 우드는 버리가 혁신 분야의 성장 펀더멘털을 이해하지 못한다고 반박하며, 정부의 지속적 공공지출이 ARK의 투자 기회를 뒷받침할 수 있다고 본다.
다듬은 글
michael bury's big bet on inflation the big short 2.0 watch this before it's too late the investor made famous by the big short has issued a dire warning about the state of the stock market michael bury warns that the stock market speculation has reached levels not seen since before the 1929 crash and assets are more overvalued than before the dot-com bubble burst today we're going to talk all about michael bury's big bet on inflation a michael bury warns that stock market speculation has reached levels not seen since before the 1929 crash and assets are more overvalued than before the dot-com bubble burst he also worries that geopolitical and economic strife exceeds that scene in the 1970s his fear appears to be that we're fast moving towards an economic calamity and government regulators such as the securities and exchange commission and the federal reserve are taking no action to prevent it in a tweet mr bury wrote more speculation than the 1920s more overvaluation than the 1990s more geopolitical and economic strife than the 1970s he added players grabbing the barrel of kyle rittenhouse's rifle while sec gov and federal reserve not approvingly he attached an opinion piece from the editorial board of the wall street journal headlined rivien the government unicorn and subheaded the ev truck maker is worth 120.5 billion dollars it has sold 156 vehicles electric vehicle manufacturer rivien backed by ford and amazon went public this week fast becoming the second highest valued automaker in the u.s after tesla valued at more than 100 million dollars by the end of its first day of trading it has nevertheless only sold less than 200 trucks and makes almost no revenue the company plans to manufacture more than one million vehicles a year by the end of the decade on the same theme mr bury also alleged in a tweet this week that tesla ceo elon musk might be selling stock in the company to cover personal debts and raises the possibility of the company losing up to 90 percent of its value as happened to many firms in the dot com crash he noted that even mr musk said that the company was overpriced in may 2020 when it was approximately 16 of its current value the tweet has since been deleted mr bury is most widely known for calling the housing price bubble that developed in the 2000s he's short of the housing market selling market positions on the assumption that housing prices will drop and when the market collapsed as he had predicted in 2007 and 2008 he made a fortune the subsequent fallout of the housing bubble bursting saw 3.8 million americans lose their homes and trigger the global financial crisis that rippled around the world leading to the great recession mr bury also focused on inflation this week noting that the current high rate of inflation is effectively depressing wages which although growing cannot keep pace he adds that as a regressive tax it hurts lower income people the most two of america's most respected investors each with their own claim on the affections of cryptocurrency bulls are locking horns over their conflicting views of the economic future on one side is kathy wood head of arc invest whose arc innovation etf holds bullish positions on companies like tesla and coinbase on the other side is michael bury whose 2007 bet against the housing market just before it triggered a financial crisis and the great recession has turned him into a near mythic doomsayer it was reported that bury through his scion asset management fund is betting against the success of woods innovation etf to the tune of 235 500 shares shorted or about 31 million dollars worth of put options the conflict has been largely framed as one between data-driven fundamental investing and more ideas-driven big-picture approach analysts who agree with bury's bet have pointed out the massively inflated price earnings ratio of arc holdings that debate is exemplified by arc's very large position in tesla an automaker whose market cap is larger than the next five largest auto companies combined yet only occasionally turns a profit wood as chronicled in coindesk's in-depth profile was vaulted into the upper tier of investors by her unwavering faith in tesla during the company's dark stretch in 2018.
even before shorting arc bury had a huge 534 million dollar short position against tesla aligning him with the tesla q skeptics who believe that elon musk's big promises about things like full self-driving or hot air but this is just the sexy philosophical surface of the debate look closer and the face-off between wood and bury is about something both simpler and bigger their different thinking about inflation bury as befits his doomsaying reputation is a notorious inflation hawk who in february compared u.s monetary policy to weimer germany that's a widely shared perspective among bitcoin advocates bury believes inflation spells doom for the kinds of companies arc holds including somewhat ironically coinbase inflation is a threat to the valuation of growth or innovation stocks largely because even moderate sustained inflation would lead the federal reserve to raise interest rates to rein in the money supply because so few of ark's portfolio companies are profitable they can be expected to need continued cash through loans or other financing as they grow higher base interest rates make the capital more expensive it would have a similar or even stronger effect on venture capital and private equity hedge funds wood meanwhile says she now believes current inflation is transitory correctly pointing out that commodity and used car prices are crashing back to earth in a tweet thread responding to reports of bury's short position she argued the equity market is likely to reward disruptive innovation strategies once again when headline inflation breaks and or fears of recession increase this is perhaps a bit surprising from wood who had supported the re-election of donald trump and so might be expected to join the mostly right-leaning inflation hawks her contrary position might show a flexible mind willing to reassess conditions on the ground on the other hand it might be a matter of convenience since predicting low inflation makes her fun's thesis look better and wood certainly has a motive to talk her own book after a sustained run of impressive annual returns around 30 percent arc returned a staggering 150 percent in 2020 thanks to positions in companies like zoom that saw outsized gains during the pandemic that success has both grown the balance sheet and attracted more capital and arc now manages nearly 22 billion up from nine billion dollars in october of last year but wood's impressive returns have at least for the moment dried up arc is down six percent so far this year while the dow jones big cap index is up 20 ouch woods signed off a long rebuttal of brewery with this i do not believe that burri understands the fundamentals that are creating explosive growth and investment opportunities in the innovation space for arc those fundamentals could actually include continued heavy us public spending as long as wood and her fellow travelers can coax enough of that cash into their own high-risk bets ] so so guys you
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