저자: Josh · 외국인
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NVDA 실적 발표를 앞둔 AI 반도체주 변동성 확대 전망. 공급 이슈가 핵심이며 실적이 좋으면 480 재돌파, 나쁘면 464 이탈 후 406까지 하락 가능성 제시. 테슬라는 230 지지 시 248 상승, 애플은 176 지지 시 180 상승 전망. SOUN은 238 지지 시 스윙 매매(315 저항), APLD는 569 지지 시 상승 전망. 아마존 134 부근에서 재진입, 디즈니는 80 하락 전망. NVDA 콜옵션 매수 포지션 공개.
다듬은 글
all right this video is not about Tesla but I'm going to lead with some commentary on Tesla price action it really had an incredible move yesterday where we left off yesterday I was pointing out that 230 dollars had right above it a very strong descending line of resistance that we had to see it break through well we went pretty powerfully into the close last night and we were above it which meant it was a hold position and then in the morning time we skyrocketed all the way to 240 dollars and then since it hit a brick wall and it's come right back to that 230 range I was watching it because 230 is the critical spot anything any sell-off beneath 230 and here's what it tells us it tells us definitively that we would be going back to 211 but as long as we stay above 230 even though we flashed back all the way from 240 if we closed today above 230 it means that we are very very likely going to move on from this spot and move up to 248 that's how we're watching the Tesla trade so far it's been very profitable but it's also been very very volatile so right now it makes more sense to get contracts that are further out expiration the first contract that I played was actually August 25th which I wouldn't recommend because that was a pretty risky move if it had not gone the direction that I expected it to go I would have lost 80 percent of my principal within a 24-hour window that's not the type of trade that most people who have never traded options should do at this point I'm pushing out my expiration dates on Tesla as long as we stay above 232 I'm going to stay in it for a push up to 248.
now today's video is about Nvidia and the AI stocks Nvidia is setting up extremely interesting it's had an incredible powerful move and we're also going to take a quick look at sound and apld because the charts are super interesting but the bulk of this video is going to be about Nvidia I'm not going to get deep into the fundamentals I'm going to briefly talk talk about the fundamentals only in respect to what Wall Street is expecting to see out of this play I'm going to tell you guys in this video how I'm playing Nvidia going into earnings what position I've taken already but I can tell you guys no matter what this is going to be one of the more risky trades because the volatility on Nvidia is through the roof right now it looks to me like this could have an 11 move up or an 11 move down on earnings so no matter which way you go it's going to be a big impact I think that move would be realized over the course of the week going into Friday 50 analysts are currently covering this stock which shows a high level of interest on Wall Street and their average price prediction for 2023 is 535 dollars and that would be 15 up from today's price as in all things that have a market value it all comes down to supply and demand and it seems to me that Nvidia has locked up demand there seems to be an unlimited Demand right now for their chips and so that leaves us with the question of supply and going into earnings I think that's what wall Street's going to be looking for because they've already priced in the opportunity but the question is can they get a confirmation that Nvidia is actually going to be in the position to supply those chips and achieve the financial goals that seem to be possible so everybody's not going to be looking at the demand side that's done that's concluded they're all going to be looking at the supply side what can they do to deliver these chips we know that data centers companies like apld Microsoft they want those chips Gamers want those chips Tesla wants those chips and so the question becomes how many chips can they Supply and we know that if it's a good earnings it's going to pull up the semiconductor chips and the AI stocks as well and that's why I'm going to look at a couple AI plays like sound and apld today guys this is the stocks with Josh show thank you again for hitting the like right at the open and if you're new to this page I make daily stock and crypto videos giving predictions charting analysis and I share my trade setups from day to day so hit that subscribe button and YouTube all notification Bell to make sure you get that next video I want to take a moment and acknowledge comment that I got yesterday from David dobson28 this individual watches all of my videos and they have a signature comment which is simply four green hearts and one red heart in the middle and he shared with me that he is going on a big 85 day trip out of the country his very first trip ever flying on an airplane and ever leaving the country and he's heading over to Lagos Nigeria to meet his fiance hopefully you can seal the deal man and make that fiance your wife and I just wanted to wish you safe travels and blessings on your journey I hope it turns out very very well all right let's get into the heat map of the S P 500 this morning most of the Magnificent Seven was green but later in the day they began to cool off and it's kind of turning gray there are still Speckles of red and green but clearly the big push from Friday to Monday has slowed down a little bit going into Tuesday and the two biggest stocks that appear to be down today are Tesla and Nvidia but it's somewhat understandable because they were rocket ships yesterday and they're just cooling off a little bit today I think and then we're gonna have some more action going into Wednesday now here's the big question about the markets this week I brought up the fact on Sunday that the majority of stocks on the NASDAQ were beneath their 50-day moving average which is a concern the question that we've got to ask ourselves going into this week especially with Jay Powell speaking Friday is was this pop-up that we got Friday to Monday was that just a dead cat bounce and this thing is going to begin to accelerate the sell-off going into the end of the week or have we pulled back enough to justify a reasonable correction on the Magnificent Seven and we could begin to go up and test and retest the local highs the question I'm going to be keeping my eye out for going into this week but I'm moving forward cautiously as I said yesterday quick comment on Apple you know it came down it hit that 172 level and it did exactly what I told you guys that it would do on Monday it backtested 176 and today we've popped up above it and what I'm expecting is for it to pull back and hit 176 and we want to watch that price point today to see if we stay above it because if we stay above 176 on The Daily Candlestick chart today so we've got a close above 176 today then it tells me that we are for sure going to move up to 180 dollars I'm going to be watching that very carefully as long as we stay above 176 I can have a stop loss in right beneath that and continue to hold Apple for a move up to 180.
all right I'm going to get into the technicals on Nvidia in just a moment let me take a quick station break for the MooMoo Investment app it's available in Australia the US and pre-registration in Canada in the U.S right now if you open up and fund your account for this zero commission trading exchange they're going to give you up to 16 free stock as well as a 50 cash bonus I love these guys for their news their stock screener and their earnings calendar it's the number one earnings calendar that I'm using and we're in earnings season right now it helps me keep an eye on the results once earnings are posted it gives you a very simple and clean overview of exactly what happened but the best part of Mumu is I host a chat group on the app a nice growing Community called stock Josh fam so check out the better trade tools on the MooMoo and Investment app get your free stock get your cash and then come over and find the chat group and we can continue the conversation there all right let's get into some of the technicals on Nvidia I'm not going to cover any news stories right now we know it's all about supply and demand this thing is still up 200 so far this year it has not pulled back the way some companies have pulled back and it woke up Friday going back into earnings week to tell us that the story is still alive and well I'm going to give you guys a price prediction to the upside and downside and we're gonna take a quick look at what's going on in the charts Nvidia had an all-time high at 480 it recently corrected 16 percent giving us a 78 loss per share now I thought that we would be a little bit more neutral and go sideways into earnings but that is just not the case it again pulled back 36 dollars another eight percent from its Spike up coming back and bouncing off 416 dollars last Thursday and then Friday and Monday it rocketed up gaining another 54 dollars and another 12 percent this thing's been volatile it shot up today to 481 dollars which we know is the all-time high Zone and immediately upon hitting that zone it said you know what we don't have enough validity to go higher than this at this point not until we get the earnings and so it immediately sold off now that wasn't bearish to me that made sense because it just had no justification to going higher than 480 right now not until we understand that Supply issue coming out of earnings that is what the Market's looking for to push it above 480 and so I'm going to tell you guys if they come out and they've got good earnings we're going to see an immediate Spike back up to 480.
as they continue to talk about the supply issue then it's going to crash down beneath 464 if the market doesn't like what it's hearing but if the market likes what it's hearing and we realize a full 11 move both on earnings night and going into the end of this week I think that this stock absolutely could move up to 515 dollars by Friday morning but if it's a downside story then we're going to go right back to 406 where it's then going to have to accumulate and find some more support now one of the main things I want to point out to you guys is this higher level channel that we fell out of this is the upper channel that puts us in an upward move now we fell out of it and then we pushed back into it on Monday but lo and behold we went a little higher and we fell out of it again that critical line of that channel is that 464 dollar price and so that's the line that I called the Line in the Sand with Nvidia if we fall beneath that that means we're going to be going lower if we stay above it after announcement that means we're going to be going higher the most obvious thing that I would expect is an initial move back up a pop-up to 481 but then we've got to see if we don't get that flash down and we've got to watch it stay above 464.
that's the critical critical level now I'm going to briefly cover some AI stocks and in the conclusion moment I'm going to let you know how I'm playing Nvidia so this coverage of SoundHound s-o-u-n is going to be pretty brief I just want to let you guys know that here is the critical range we have to stay above 238 it's as simple as that we want to see it stay above 230 8 and I think that the range as long as we're above 238 is between 238 to 278 and I think that we're going to see sound move in conjunction with Nvidia if nvidia's got good numbers and it pops up we're going to see sound easily pop up even as high as 2.78 but it needs to stay above 238 if we see that 238 level lost then we're going to come all the way back and we're going to back test 198 and if we get up to three dollars and 15 cents on sound anytime over the course of this week because we get some momentum I'm going to tell you guys for me that's a sell sell now it's not because I don't like sound it's because sound has been extremely profitable for me to swing trade that's how I like doing sound right now if you just want to accumulate and you want to hold long you go ahead and do that right now the most profitable thing I've been doing with sound is having the ability to buy more sound with the amount that I've allocated to this investment by making money off of these swings and I think that there is a lot of resistance at three dollars and fifteen cents and I think that we would move up we'd hit a wall and I might as well take my profits there let it come back down to 238 or somewhere in that range 246 and re-buy it for the next move up that's exactly how I'm playing SoundHound and then apld now guys a lot of people were getting bearish on apld I said that it was a buy between 6.50 and 5.50 and yesterday I want to point out this very critical level of support that we did not break and it's extremely bullish for a pld and that's 5.69 this is the Line in the Sand I always give you guys the Line in the Sand if we stay above 569 and we bounced on it yesterday with some good momentum we've got a number of areas of support so it made sense that that was going to be the bounce zone and if you had accumulated the way that I did from 650 and down you'd have a nice little position right now and here's what we're going to be watching for I think that on good earnings with Nvidia this thing could move up all the way to 7.30 and then potentially by Friday back to seven dollars and eighty cents I think it's going to be a huge win if things do not go bullishly and it comes back and breaks beneath five dollars and sixty nine cents then it opens us up to a quick drop down to four dollars and forty cents and even as low as sub four dollars but at the moment I'm leaning bullish and I don't see that happening even if it did I would simply get out at 569 and then I would just reaccumulate between four and four forty like I said sound and apld are not long-term holds for me right now they're on my watch list and they're simply swing trades within range these companies have not really been profitable and as a result I don't think companies that aren't profitable over long periods of time are very stable and so I'd want to see them come into a period of time in which they're in the profit that will really stabilize the company and then over time create a base for going long it's not there just yet for me on these companies so again small cap small position size swing trade stocks all right let me just wrap things up real quick I'm gonna give you guys a couple gems before signing off here like I said a moment ago the majority of stocks on the NASDAQ are beneath their 50ma which is a concern we don't know over the last couple days whether this was just a dead cat bounce and the selling pressure is going to accelerate going into Friday and the Jackson Hole conversation we don't know that we have to watch that so we don't want to get overly bearish we don't want to get overly bullish but I will tell you guys that I am going along and taking call positions on Nvidia I think there's enough reason to trust them going into this earnings but it's a high risk move because of the volatility that I explained to you guys this thing is either going to crush my calls or it's going to pump them so do not follow me do your own due diligence I purchased some call positions today around 1pm and I have left myself some room depending on how tomorrow looks to add to those positions if we dipped some more I would add if we went up some more I'd probably add going into earnings that's how I'm playing it real quick don't forget last call to hit that like last call to subscribe to make sure that you can get those follow-up videos and I'll let you know what I saw in the Nvidia earnings as well as apple and Tesla and all the companies that I talk about here on this channel each and every day for those who stayed to the very end I want to give you guys two gems I cannot talk about every trade that I'm in and I can't talk about every company every single day but I'm going to tell you guys a chart that you needed to have been keeping your eyes on that I've talked about in the past and that's Amazon Amazon is doing really well it's actually doing exactly what I said I told you guys when I took profit at 142 I think it was actually 143 dollars was where I was able to cash out I told you guys that it was going to pull back today we're sitting at 134 dollars I'm looking at that RSI I'm looking at the position that we're in and I think that this thing could Skyrocket all the way back up to 144 or 146 dollars so I've reloaded my risk on Amazon there's really nothing that I can lose on my Amazon Play because I made a ton of money from 126 all the way up to 143 and now I can just simply take a new position I've got a little bit of buffer there because of those winnings and I'm going to go along and try to get it again and my final gem I'm talking two gems at the end of this video is Disney me I was staring at the Disney chart before I made this video today and I'm just going to hold to my prediction that we will see an 80 Disney it had a minor pump up to around 90 dollars recently and there's a technical room for it to go as high as 100 before failing and turning around and going down to 80.
but the fact that we couldn't get above 90 is even more ominous for the stock and potentially could signal that we're going to push to that 80 sooner rather than later now there's still a chance that we could pop up to 100 but ultimately Disney is still in a downward Trend and I do not think that we've seen the low just yet and again I want to remind you guys I called 80 the beginning of accumulation now to be honest I've done a little bit of accumulation on Disney but I'm going to be looking to take a larger position sub 80 or at eighty dollars I just wanted to remind you guys of that and let you know keep your eye on Disney that's still a very good opportunity but it has yet to hit bottom all right that's all that I have for you guys again today I will see you soon in the MooMoo chat take care peace and blessings thank you
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