저자: TradingFraternity채널출연자 · 외국인
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8/22 시장은 중국 위안화 강세·항셍 막판 반등과 S&P 등 신용평가사의 미국 은행 등급 하향으로 변동성이 컸다. 내일 엔비디아 실적이 AI 테마의 방향을 가를 핵심 이벤트로 제시됐다. 엔비디아 매출 110억 달러 이상 기대, 다음 분기 가이던스 125.6억 달러 전망이 언급됐다. 실적 기대감에 엔비디아 관련 중소형주 RXRX 등을 단기 매매 대상으로 언급했다. 이 외 바이두 단기 매매와 바이오 종목 포지션도 언급했다.
다듬은 글
all right ladies and gentlemen I hope you had a wonderful day it was absolutely insane in the markets today and we had everything from bank downgrades to earnings and weird weird China news I'm gonna go over all of it but it leads into Nvidia earnings tomorrow is the AI bubble gonna continue our pop he will find out after hours but if you didn't see how it played out I'm telling you it was absolutely wild today so we have a lot to go over I got the place for you I got the plays I already said that and the plays because that's all we're gonna go over and then Nvidia but I'm just gonna run over everything that happened here in the morning because you should already be prepared with Jackson Hole we'll even talk about that tomorrow but hopefully you are seeing there's a lot of things happening now I mean it was crazy so first of all there was a a attitude insuit of relief in the morning you could tell by this Gap up I think like within a couple of minutes after the Bell the NASDAQ was up like one and a quarter a little bit more than that it was feeling very good there was a lot of relief but where did this come from well it starts again here with China and this is where I'm excited because you guys remember last week and the week before that I was always like oh something's happening right you guys remember that it was like every week or so I was able to show you something going on well pretty much that happened again today so the moral of this story is that the Chinese they strengthen their currency the way that they fixed it today was the strongest ever on a day-to-day basis since going back to 2018 so it doesn't have too much metrics wise when it's all put into context but they assisted their currency and then the awkward thing that happened today here is the Hang sang and if you notice it was like right before close on Asian markets even if you look at the Shanghai composite their last 30 minute was extremely bullish after hitting lows all day and again these are like six months almost one-year lows or at least going back to you know October November you know think about where U.S markets were and all of that so people reacted to that what they said was that it was possibly the government I mean imagine this imagine the market hitting a new low and then all of a sudden bouncing up like one or two percent in the final like 30 minutes or an hour uh they blame the government and we oh anyways but but that was the first thing that happened today and this was a very big deal that was part of the awkwardness but now get rid of all of this I mean if you didn't see the regional Banks I think they took it a lot better because the last time this happened we saw like a four or five percent down day you remember we brought it up in the videos and what I'm talking about is today there was another downgrade by one of the major Credit Agencies on the United States Banks this time it was the s p Global Credit agency they downgraded the banks in America they picked all I think all of them but they had a list of it it's funny because it wasn't disseminated in the same way as like Moody's and Fitch but think about it you've been hearing all of these Credit Agencies and this is what I want to highlight about today it was Moody's and Fitch that's who you have been hearing about this whole time whether it's U.S credit rating or in regards to the bank remember or the banks that you had Fitch and Moody make comments but s p they're the guys who downgraded the us back in the day and they've really been quiet up until now and they made their comment on the banks today so regionals dropped about three percent and the main thing I was talking about all day today was like if you pull out the chart I mean regionals were just back to the level of the peak of svb I mean this says a lot and it doesn't at the same time but it's like you're still in shock if you really think about what has happened since March or at least that is what the price index is telling us again Banks had a little bit more difficulty they've been coming down I mean they're not at the lows of svb so that's where you could kind of counteract it but definitely this was one of the biggest pieces of news today and this got thing is going crazy so that's what we woke up to that's what caused it and I don't know if I told you the more we gapped up and then sold it all off went a little bit like lower than the Pump It Up level and then you see where we're at now but thankfully it leads into a full trading day of tomorrow then it's Nvidia or Nvidia for some of the more sophisticated ones huh it's called Nvidia yeah but if anything Chad is gonna be wild I hope you're ready for but now let's talk about the earnings and let's go over a play I have a high play but it's now it's time like the video drop your thumbs up youtube.com stock market for the stream tomorrow and run it baby ladies and gentlemen like I said I hope you are up to speed with what is going to be happening with Jackson Hole we will be talking about that leading up into the event but so far we've recapped everything on the week now that you know what's been going on the last couple of days even today tomorrow you are gonna get PMI data there was economic data again you even had retail sales and a couple of other things that move things or retail earnings excuse me not retail sales but for the most part the two major themes that are really going to you know cause wind and sail to the markets in either direction it's gonna be either Nvidia earnings or Mr Jerome Powell having the whole world in his hands so that's why we've been talking about it so like I said tomorrow's not much I have plays related to the event but what I want to go over now is simply in the video's earnings and what is expected and if you save these numbers on screen you can use these numbers right here to pretty much right when the numbers come out see how big of a beat it is it's very simple if they come in way hotter than anybody is expecting that'll be another strong B if they come in any lower than these numbers you see on the screen then you're really gonna see what's up and you could even check the performance as well too so we're gonna run through it but you could save that here right now but now here's the other thing I want you to see this is Jackson Hall so I'm putting this up here too so maybe if you don't listen just pause the video dog and then you know read this a little bit get up to speed and you'll be ready as the time again and we'll see you on stream okay that's it that's it so getting back to the earnings now what I want you to see here is how we got here so right now the company is saying they had guidance of 11 billion dollars plus or minus two percent and this number right here is the average analyst estimate believe it or not this is what you've been seeing again even today you have more upgrades so people have raised their target they're actually expecting 11.19 billion I mean I think this is the simplest earnings in the world if this number misses on Revenue obviously everybody is going to pick apart all of these little things they're gonna look at gaming remember that has actually been struggling people are wanting to see data center go up I mean robotics hasn't made as much but if you could get gaming going up people will like it but overall most of this Revenue should be coming from data centers in AI if this number is amiss I think immediately people will not like that the next metric is margin and this is a very good margin again analysts are slightly good I do think this will have an effect again tomorrow they're expected to report analysts on average are expecting 70.1 percent we'll see how that plays out I don't think that number is going to matter as much operating expense that will be key because now here could be the caveat the way I see Nvidia being bad if they find a way to guide on Revenue up and beat Revenue where they might get killed is if expenses go too high but honestly if they guide high enough and beat high enough I think everyone's gonna say spend as much as you want Zuckerberg what it's not oh yeah you get it but that's why that's what happened to Mark anyways but hopefully you see where I'm getting at operating income this will be important expected to come in at 5.85 billion tomorrow with a non-gaap operating margin of 52.3 and an EPS of two dollars and eight cents now this is where it gets good the guidance for next quarter so analysts are expecting that guidance will be 12.56 on Revenue this is how everything happened last quarter on May of 2024 when the video went crazy what happened it was when not their earnings number was like really good it's because they guided they guided for this quarter it was supposed to be eight billion dollars they said we're actually going to come in with 11 billion dollars so this is where we're talking about this quarter but now how much higher do they come in here analysts and this is where everybody's been upgrading and all of that they're saying well if they beat on this quarter then this is how they're going to do this quarter that's why we're going to raise the price Target up by 100 200 ahead of the earnings so this number is very very important this is like the first line of defense Revenue uh operating income operating margin or gross margin and then operating expenses but now guidance and then those same metrics in that order more or less that's what's going to start guiding you here so 12.56 billion for next quarter that's going to be the number a gross margin around 70.6 operating expense is expected to go up so they got a ceiling up until 2.16 maybe until they freak everybody out and then an operating income of 6.69 billion which is great and then EPS of 239 and then cash from operations 5 billion dollars so if you see right here in the video they are already up oh you can't even see that I got to move it up a little bit but they are already up 53 since May 24th that's their last quarter s p is up 6.9 and then the Technologies ETF is up 8.9 so the options right now says they're implying about 14.7 I think they move today up five percent down that was part of the drama today too oh man I don't even think did I show you that I don't even think I mentioned that you know that in a video gapped up 80 or to 480 today and then sold it all off they're up like four or five percent after everything that we've seen and then even Nike uh again nine days in a row in Nike this is the longest losing streak in a row for them apparently ever in history uh even Schwab again there was uh some tweets going around talking about their asset levels and then all the bank downgrades but this is even their worst Street than since 2004 so stuff is brewing but anyways back to the Nvidia what I was trying to tell you is that they already moved like five percent or so so I do believe options around 10 to 15 percent and then last four quarters the recent one they moved 24 then they gained 14 and lost one and then gained four so not bad last quarters have been wild and then revenue is being 18 of the last 20.
EPS has beaten 19 of the last 20 and then forward quarter guidance has beat 12 of 20 but that's all that matters so we'll see what happens Chad but that will be the earnings tomorrow and now let us get into the place so there's a lot more I could say on it again we talked about it today in the video I think there's gonna be a very strong bias to support the numbers no matter what and what I mean by that is I think so many people are heavily invested I think tomorrow is going to be a very emotional day it'll be pivotal for the AI story it's going to be great I'm excited but like I'm saying I think a lot of people want to see it do good we'll find out what it is but at the end of the day you cannot predict it my play it's going to be playing after but now the play before this is the one I made today we made it before we did good on it RX RX you may remember this this is the company that Nvidia invested into not too long ago I was in July about like a just what just around a month ago a little bit longer than that remember Nvidia invested like 50 60 million then it tripled up we made a trade we sold out around this price level I think we did great on it but I got out of that plane I decided to double dip again here today and I came in with a thousand shares at 88 and now my logic with it it's tied to Nvidia it's tied to some of this AI stuff I think we get lucky on this play if it is mentioned in the earnings even tomorrow you're gonna have a whole trading day if all the people in the market want to get ready and try to go for all the sympathies I want to be positioned early on it but like I'm saying if Nvidia does good or they mention it we could get lucky but here's the thing this isn't a direct sympathy the reason why I like it we're closer to nvidia's Target and remember last time we played it we utilized those covered calls as well too but I think it can move up I think it's a nice sympathy opportunity but it's not as direct but I like the fact that we're closer and cheaper than the first time we flipped in we're getting in there and it just so happens to tie into the calendar and the new so I'm looking for a flip on this again we held it for a last time a lot decent amount of time last time so we'll see how that one plays out but watch out for them and now in the contrary what I was talking about sympathies for NVIDIA in the video I said it I said it right uh but what I want you to see is like if you really want to play something that is going to be tracking the movement again if Nvidia does good do you want to see the stock go up or if it does bad do you want to see it go down well a stock like Marvel AMD that is going to be more of a direct sympathy than rxrx I think rxrx it's pretty pretty it's moved a little sketchy lately in terms of liquidity but it's one of those smaller cap plays versus one of the bigger chip names that still even have earnings I think Marvel reports even later and they moved a lot so if you didn't notice like AMD this wasn't earnings this was their earnings this was Nvidia Nvidia and I said Nvidia so many times correctly in a row but hopefully you see where I'm getting at that's a pretty big deal so tomorrow that's the direct sympathy we went with rxrx on the cheaper one we will see how it plays out but that is play number one then play number two this one I made a flip on it but I like it a lot still I've been I've been telling you about it even with earnings I made a play on Baidu I got in at like 125 and sold out at like 1 30 today it was like 500 bucks 480.
I thought it was good 100 shares I wanted to hold it but I was like man this is back and forth just give me my money I don't want to end up holding it and then I've got a hold of it go down all that but I really like it I might just treat this one like Disney like I said yesterday and I'm gonna keep my eye out there but by do they beat on earnings again China is the broader risk so be cautious that's why I'm saying like in and out with it I think you could get some good moves if it does go a lot lower I would be down to build a way larger swing position but we do need a kind of play you know some of the broader currents in terms of the macro so watch out for that one that is play number two and then finally play number three it's folk uh and this one's interesting so it's a biotech play I grabbed 500 shares at like 550 it was a little bit more expensive and I kept it smaller because it was up 40 50 today but they held and this is the reason why I think it held is because they got a FDA approval to restart the drug and pretty much over here they had bad news about the drug that brought them down so FDA saying okay you could try again they still got money they're still pursuing along the plans that's why I was like it held up it stayed up kind of remind me of Trisha there was a lot of volume with it so I was like Hey higher up I didn't want to go too big but still went with decent sides but it's like 2 500 bucks 500 shares I mean at like 570.
we were up on it then it came down but I think we could ride this for a little bit and it might be pretty entertaining or maybe we get a day too we'll see what happens but those are the main plays besides that it's all about the earnings tomorrow then that's it man you already know you already know man even and then the curve steepener the curve uh the curve flattened today so I lost on the 30 year again I should have moved it to the ten I had an opportunity I was up on it this morning didn't take it but I was going to but we'll see how that one keeps playing out and I'm sure by Powell and all of that we'll get a lot of movement bachata Daddy sir watch us ladies and gentlemen make sure Audrey healthy ready to go make sure posture watch us make sure we see you there in the morning I need the armor on I need the helmet shining and I need you to remember short simple and sweet today and I don't know if you were there today it has more meaning you understand some of the context if it was your first time hearing this you're going hey this is going to hit you and you'll be like oh it was Assad it was a sign but listen simple your prayers are being heard that's it that's all man that's it I'm leaving on that I'm leaving on that that's it that's all I'm gonna say bro hands up bro you only say hold on no I got something for you let me go let me get the 35 they were doubting me hold on what's that man I don't know what it looked like backwards bro they were playing with me bro they were playing with me you know I've done this with 50s I told you I could throw this bro oh see bro this is why flexing is bad you know what I'm saying is you gonna hurt somebody you're gonna see us I'll rebuke it hey man that's a live example you see that when I Gotta Throw it I threw it now I actually threw it so that's evident I'm leaving I'm going home man all right see you later horn foreign
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