저자: TradingFraternity진행자 · 외국인
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버리가 은행주(웰스파고, 웨스턴얼라이언스 등)를 대량 매수했다는 소식이 주요 화제이며, 시장은 부채한도 협상과 옐런 재무장관의 자금 소진 경고에 따라 움직이고 있다. [시장 흐름] 미국 증시는 S&P500 4,100~4,200 박스권에서 횡보 중이며, 뉴스에 대한 반응이 약하다. 연준 인사 발언(굴스비, 키시카리, 하커, 보스틱)이 이어졌으나 시장 반응은 제한적이었다. 보스틱은 '일시 중단(pause)'을 언급했다. 뉴욕 연은 제조업 지수는 크게 악화됐고 소매판매·산업생산 등 지표가 예정되어 있다. [부채한도 이슈] 옐런 재무장관은 재무부 잔고가 880억 달러이며 약 15~16일 내 소진될 수 있다고 밝혔다. 진행자는 부채한도 해결 시 금·채권·VIX 모두 하락(긍정 반응)할 것으로 보고, 해결 전 변동성 확대를 이용해 금을 매수하고 해결 전 매도하는 전략을 제시했다. 진행자는 금 매수 후 부채한도 이전 청산, 채권 숏 포지션 정리를 고려하고 있다고 말했다. [은행주·버리] 마이클 버리가 13F 기준으로 약 6,000만 달러어치를 추가 매수해 보유 자산이 약 1억 400만 달러가 됐다는 내용이다. 진행자는 이를 시장 내러티브 변화 가능성으로 언급했으나 명확한 방향 예측은 하지 않았다. [기타] 아마존 AI 참전, 델타·에어버스 관련 이벤트 헤드라인이 있었다. 진행자는 이번 주 금요일 파월 연준 의장 발언 이후 방향이 나올 것으로 보고 있다.
다듬은 글
all right ladies and gentlemen I hope you had a wonderful day it was an absolute wild one even though the market didn't move and it is just because of the headlines so we got a lot to talk about I'm sure you already saw this headline Michael burry bought the bank stocks my guy was gambling four million dollars on FRC we'll talk about that a little bit Yellen gave a warning and this is going to lead into everything because once again the debt ceiling is back into place but there was a bunch of other headlines I got a lot going on I got the chain on today next to the bull so you got bull next to Bull I was gonna use the 20 bill for the thumbnail I was gonna show you this it was actually a fun fact if you guys didn't know uh every treasury secretary they sign your money so yelling got one munchkin got one and this is Mr Jacob Blue series 2013 this twenty dollar bill is from 2013.
look at that oh and Chick-fil-A got a new cup I told you I'll bring you breaking news man but that look at that it's a new cup by Chick-fil-A it's called the extra late okay I don't this is this ain't a sponsored post but anyways what I'm trying to tell you there was a lot of stuff today even beyond that the Michael burry news a lot of people were focusing on that we got to hear about other 13 F's and some of them caused movement but there was a lot of other event driven headlines like Amazon getting involved in AI even becoming a competitor there was like Delta and Airbus and then there was another update again on the dead ceiling so that's pretty much what we got today a lot of different news a lot of movement to end up going nowhere and I think this is reinforcing the theory that this Friday with Powell I mean we might have to wait till after that moment to get some movement because a lot is hanging on there now before I get into it though I'm gonna start with this because I kept saying it today and I really like it I believe it was from Scott Kaiser he said this today on Bloomberg and he was saying why the mark Market is being range bound right now is you got to think about it at 4200 on the SPX if you want to buy the s p right now and are looking for just a 10 return from 4200 you are implying that the market will then go to 4 600 whether that be by the end of the year or even 12 months from now halfway into 2024 but I thought that was a very interesting take but the whole point is I use you have to have noticed that we have been at the same range for a long time and everybody's asking when we're gonna move we brought this up yesterday we said take a look at after the option expirations like last year there was kind of a history of movement so Chad that's all we got today but you know let's let's get into what happened so here's today we gapped up a little bit and we sold off and then we kind of melted up throughout the day but the real big driver from the morning it was a couple of things remember one this whole week is all fed speakers we had four fed speakers today in the pre-market Austin Goolsby Chicago he is a voter and he said something very interesting one people thought he was going to be the guy who dissented and he even addressed that and said it was a close call so that was an interesting take but beyond that the other thing he said which was kind of bullish he said that the market was right to price in lower interest rates in response to svb so that was bullish but then the other thing Mr Biden made some statements about the debt ceiling and the market received it very well in terms of these conversations we were having now this is where it gets interesting because you get this little melt up throughout the day you had some little drops we actually had bad debt ceiling news throughout the day so that's what got us up in the morning the good debt ceiling news and then middle of the day McCarthy said nothing is happening nothing is changing there has been no progress on it and then yelling she gave an update saying yeah we're actually running out of money the treasury balances came out on Friday and now the treasury has 88 billion dollars left we pretty much have now 88 billion dollars in 15 or 16 days left of time and that's where everything is about to go crazy so that was a big deal and this is where now maybe the volatility might come up and that's why even gold kind of moved around a little bit today but we had all this in the morning again the FED speakers were talking good debt ceiling negative debt ceiling news didn't make us react and then throughout the day you had other fed speakers kishkari in the morning and then I think a Harker or Harkin they both said the same thing inflation is way too high and they said it got to be data dependent didn't really comment too much Harker was a little bit more bearish and then Bostick he's not a voter but he said the p word he said pause but Market kind of didn't really react again we have traded exactly how we traded for the last 20 days I can't stress this enough so there was all of that it was just a lot of different things I told you some of those news headlines there in the morning but there was all of this stuff a little bit of positive China overnight but then like I'm saying it all really is now boiling down to the debt ceiling because some people are assuming like I was telling you about a week or two ahead after we get through this week we have the expiration then after that it's about two full weeks until the event people are waiting for the markets to react and now even after today in watching the lack of reaction I think this is just showing lack of reaction from the FED speakers and kind of the debt ceiling up and then no reaction throughout the day but I think it's all going to boil down to pal I think John Williams Thursday and Friday he may be able to move the markets uh just because he's the number two next to Powell but up until Friday on Powell if Powell does not say anything notable new development I don't think we're gonna go anywhere and I would not be surprised to dance between 4100 and 4200 up until we get into next week and then volatility and other stuff start to pick up leading into the dead ceiling so that's what I'm going to talk about in terms of plays but the final thing tomorrow you do have data you have retail sales in the morning and then you have industrial production and then a couple of other things and then again real estate data throughout the week it could move things but even this morning Empire fed manufacturing oh my goodness you have fed Services tomorrow but fed manufacturing absolutely collapsed and we didn't really react to that again kind of the sentiment in the morning was good it did help that China was decent and we actually held up that's the first China pop in the morning that actually held so there was all of that but now Chad let's talk about the good stuff we got to get into the plays and it relates to Young treasury right here again the debt ceiling yelling came out and she was given an update on the X day and it's quite simple if we're looking like we're not moving much the range has been small I think it's a safe bet kind of to bet on nothing happened opening until we get the right Catalyst with like Powell but the way I'm looking at it is once we get through this week it will increasingly be in Focus now of the Dead ceiling so two ways to play it we've been talking a lot about bonds today I want to talk now about gold I brought this up yesterday we talked about dabbling with it a little bit I tried my first future on it we made a flip but this is now a play I'm going to be looking at pretty much from the end of this week we're warming up on it by this week but I think really coming into next week both golden bonds I may want to even close out of my bomb position this week I'm still short on it and then we wait to see what happens with the debt ceiling but the idea is here coming into now the debt ceiling I think all of the IV will pick up so again we talk bonds we talk gold another thing some people are discussing is just straight up the vix even goes up leading into this so those are the plays I'm going to be watching and my plan is pretty much buy gold and sell out before the debt ceiling gets resolved because again if it does get resolved I think it's positive gold will get clapped bonds will get clapped even the vix will get clapped but the idea is leading into it kind of treat it like earnings I think leading into the earnings which is sad because this is a default on the United States of American debt but it says it earnings you could pretty much play the volatility and flip it and that's something we're noticing every single week man we've already made videos on this people are talking about it more and the chart just keeps playing out whether it's the SPX or the vix so the fact we're still talking about it you're waking up with oh yeah talks are good and then the speaker is like no they're not and then yelling meanwhile is writing a letter every day and like yo we really only have 14 15 days and 88 billion dollars like we actually are going to run out of money that's where it starts to get important and then again everybody is saying government will not respond until the market responds ons and well maybe we're getting close to that so that was the main event with everything I'm really just going to be watching those plays again still in bonds I close that oil play uh this morning we made some money on it it even ended up higher news of spr I got a micro oil play we're playing Baidu for earnings again and Michael burry so if you didn't see this too that was the big thing he's taking losses on a couple of these he is like 20 million dollars uh between JD and Baba but again he bought all the bank stocks he bought Wells Fargo he bought Western Alliance uh what was it Huntington Beach bancor or whatever it was uh or Western one of those beach bancorps again I'm not looking at it right now but you see the screenshot but he bought all the banks and here's the main thing remember his little Fiasco Michael burry went from saying uh you know sell everything I'm wrong to sell and then now during this quarter based on this 13f this is one of his biggest Buys in years he added 60 million dollars worth of stock so up until his last filing he had about 40 million dollars in assets that he was holding in terms of equity after this filing he has like a hundred and four million now so pretty wild we'll see how this plays out uh I mean again I think that could change the narrative a little bit but now I mean we're almost halfway through we got to justify a couple things if you think there's ten percent of upside left in the market if you think there's a 10 rally you're saying we're going within five percent of all-time highs and well where really has the narrative shifted we'll see maybe Powell maybe the pause but either way I think we're gonna get some this week and if it's not this week it's definitely next week after the expiration but that is your watch list ladies and gentlemen make sure I try healthy ready to go make sure to post your watch list make sure we see you there in the morning I need the armor on I need the helmet shining I need you to remember you're blessed and guess what if you don't believe it it don't matter that's it if you don't got the belief what happened you got to believe in everything that's what they call conviction you think I'm even talking I'm even talking plays bro this goes down to the market and everything in life baby so you gotta believe I hope you believe Chad and I hope you got this stamina and make sure that you pace yourself because it's already been five months again here's the chart just to end it we got five more months and then it's 20 24 and then who knows what 2020 then 2020 then you're almost halfway done with the 20s oh my gosh then it's almost 23rd and then you're gonna talk that's it Chad but I love you okay that's it don't let me go crazy isn't this weird I don't like the bull on bull they give me weird up I'm chilling man I'm chilling I'm feeling blessed I hope you're blessed I'm not gonna make it weird I'm gonna talk to you I had a straight conversation with the Chick-fil-A guy you actually let's dissect this it's a new cup it's like a cup within a cup bro it's like man the Lord has protected this cup okay man I can't honestly okay here it is they don't want us to know the secret oh what dang it's a double cup bro dang this is the dog a day you got it it's gonna be in a rap video I made it awkward I'm a weirdo okay I'm leaving porn foreign foreign
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