저자: Chad · 외국인
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3/4 장 마감 후 방송. 칩주 혼조, 시장 전반 약세지만 상승 종목 다수. 이번 주 ISM·고용 등 빅데이터와 CPI가 금리·채권 방향 결정 요인. 코인베이스 강세와 비트코인 신고가 근접을 주목. 타깃 실적 앞두고 옵션 가격 점검, SPX 동일가중지수가 시장 폭 확대 지표. 우라늄(CCJ) 매매, 페더럴 관련 옵션 수익 언급.
다듬은 글
all right ladies and gentlemen I hope you had a wonderful day it was a wild start to the week led by Bitcoin in the chip stacks and by the end of it everybody was brought up with the moral dilemma we'll call it of why they are trading anything else and not just buying Nvidia because it keeps outperforming so Chad we got a ton of things to talk about tomorrow we'll kick off the first set of big data to start off a week filled with big data and pal we still got a couple of earnings in the morning and now we are firmly getting ready for March and the new SCP only a couple weeks out so Chad I got the plays I got the keys all that good stuff what I need from you a thumbs up on the video make sure you're subscribed and if you don't know we are live Monday through Friday 30 minutes before open youtube.com/ theack Market we will see you there in the morning run at P feel how I feel you feel like some blessing I just want the I just want protection I'm up and I'm down but the sound like progression never PL if he wa for Perfection but right off the B before we get into the keys as far as what happened today there was a lot of different things going on the chip seemingly got a boost because smci got added to the S&P 500 on Friday that boosted it up and I figured Nvidia followed along there was bad headlines out of apple there was a couple of earnings even SE they ended up doing good in the morning there wasn't good news out of China and overall we were kind of in a wait and see mode after all of the data and pce and data that you got on Thursday and Friday last week so that's what got us here but the interesting part about it and we're going to talk about this a lot you'll notice everything was down every index closed in the red smci was up 16% Nidia was still up 4% and even though we were red today I believe more stocks ended up closing green than in the red so it was an interesting Dynamic maybe a little weird is how you've heard us call it here before because you did it once again we hit a high and then you sold off so even though it was red you are coming off of a all-time high and then we are kind of doing this back and forth until we get the big data so that's what we got today I think we're going to get a lot of that tomorrow there wasn't really anything to digest today we did not start off the week with any crazy data it was really just the resumption of last week and everybody digesting that and like I said at the beginning of the video here today the data tomorrow morning ISM services that should kick things off and it's going to let us know how the bonds are going to react are we going to get another week of equities kind of brushing things off and waiting for the biggest set of data and letting the bonds do its thing as well as the dollar that's another big effect or are we going to see things kind of move sensitively but like we said yesterday this is the final weeks of Big Data after this week this is the final ISM and final non farms and job openings and that's on Wednesday not Tuesday that you are going to be getting ahead of pal you do have CPI next week but for the most part this set of data here it should get the ball rolling and now we'll see how sensitive people are because this is that Runway starting to close in so keep your eyes out for all of that watch out for that for tomorrow today was an interesting effect and now that leads into the second key the phenomena you saw today is something we were talking about the last couple days and that has been the broadening out of the market it is very much still a theme and you saw that clearly here today even though the market was red you saw certain Industries outperform another industry besides the chipmakers it was the banks even though NYCB they sold off completely The Regionals and the big Banks they found a way to hold up and this is something where if you just look across the board today there was a lot of other industries that held up even the Russell it barely closed red and really up until that last like 30 minutes it was green so watch if this keeps playing out because if we keep getting these hit a all-time high and then sell off and then a couple of the big names are running or just a couple of big chips the other big name stay stagnant and everything else runs this is quite telling towards how the market is moving and maybe this is where we see March kind of play out where some of the big guys calm down a little bit and then we watch everyone else run or we're going to watch the dominant names or maybe it's an everything rally who knows but like I'm saying here watch how other things play into it other factors whether it be the data or even broader sentiment that's where that Bitcoin stuff comes into play because even if nothing is moving it may seem like it's only one or two areas but like if one thing is moving and like Bitcoin is moving big that is saying a lot about how people are feeling towards risk and lately it has been hard to ignore the lagging and leading components of both of those both the markets and Bitcoin so watch out for that we'll see how this week plays out and if things keep broadening out or if specific Pockets keep getting their outperformance and then finally the last thing I want to mention here is coming into the data we had very strong gold today right below all-time highs crypto is breaking out and the dollar is still near the highest point of the year and now this is getting kind of awkward my question is is it snitching before the data we will find out but what I'm saying here is now coming into this final set of data I do think CPI next week it will be very important the jobs report is this Friday last time it was very strong we did react negatively a little bit eventually equities went up the bonds went down we'll see how that plays into this next week and then even the CPI but you are starting to get some very weird and extended movements especially now that gold is going up while the dollar is up and the odds of rate Cuts have pulled back so we'll see if this is either leading or maybe we are just going to get a whole new Dynamic we will have to wait and see but this is something that stood out I don't really have an answer to it but I am pointing it out now because this is something I will be watching into these coming weeks ahead of the SCP but besides that we'll take the data this week see where it leads us see some of the earnings but now let us get into the play so right off the bat we made a couple of plays here today I got clapped here off the morning I went after uranium I grabbed a th000 shares I only meant to grab 500 then double filled on ccj but there was a uranium bill so watch out for that I did take profits I believe on that Intel play if you guys remember those average down with the chips and then I think that was it and then we added or then we sold AMT and then I bought a fiser there while they spoke at TD Cohen but that was a dub but as far as play number one this is a play I don't have for tomorrow I'm going to be keeping an eye on coinbase they were hitting like 235 today and this is an absolutely massive move if they get up to 250 there is going to be a lot of crazy breakout levels and that's what I'm saying here I would just watch the levels maybe even watch for them to top out and even a move to the downside but for now they are getting involved with all of the crypto hype and the thing about today they were outperforming the miners I think all of the crypto miners went down and closed pretty solidly red today and coinbase was absolutely killing it along mstr so crypto is only a couple of hundred I believe away from a record high coinbase is now getting back to like early IPO levels I even think after one of my average Downs in the long term we're almost green on this so this is going to be one to watch I think there is just going to be a lot of dollars in this play if you remember last year with Nvidia there was a lot of dollars and a lot of movement you might get that here on coinbase because it is quickly into the 230s it was just at the low or mid 100s and now if it's knocking on the door of 300 things will start getting very interesting so as far as a momentum play going to be keeping my eyes out on coinbase I currently have no plays on that so watch out for that that is play number one then play number two we ran the numbers here today and this one although I wanted to play it I don't think the options were priced too bad I figured we will get a better post earnings on this tomorrow and I am talking about targets so the options weren't too bad for two standard deviations there was a little bit more of Premium but the way I was looking at it their last earnings they had a very big move other than that their other earnings weren't that big I think they are going to move in line so watch out tomorrow with how they move move and the thing about Target these are one where they report in the morning they have their conference call it is either going to have one of those quick reverse follow-up moves right off the open or it's going to make that big move off of the earnings kind of stay pinned and then wait for the delayed move a couple days later and then we're going to be out on the lookout for a swing trade on target so watch out for that but definitely going to be watching this in the morning we'll see if it even Sparks anything related to the consumer you know as everyone's in the spirit of resp responding the data this week but we'll find out that is play number two then play number three oh I think I actually have more than two plays for you today or three but play number three SPX ew and this one's interesting because you could play this or you could watch it at the very least I would watch this as an indicator and right now it is an interesting hybrid between the Russell and the Spy what is the SPX eew it is the Spy equal weight so it is showing you you the S&P 500 but on a equal weight basis so one or two stocks that go up 3 400% don't weigh on it and make it look like everything's going crazy and why this has been so fascinating because if you pull out the equal weighted spy index you will notice it is not broken out of all-time highs I think you could say the same thing here about the Russell as well this is something we've talked about from the beginning of the year I did sell out recently but this one has also been trailing behind as well so the thing about the Russell equal W equal W equal way I think it's a good mix between both the spy and Russell you could play it if you want or watch out for it but again days like today I think it really stood out because this thing was positive even though the market was red and even though it seemed like Bitcoin and chips was increasing risk the market was red and you did have some bigger names pulling down but a majority of names were higher so watch out for that thought that was an interesting one to bring up and then finally play number four this was one forgot to bring this one up yesterday I made this play on Friday I'm still holding it had 500 shares of spr I believe I grabbed them around 3280 I'm up like four or 5% on this I may want to get out of this one tomorrow or throughout the end of the week here but they had that news from buyout there was more confirmation no price has been discussed and that's pretty much why this play has been riding out so keep your eyes out for it there was a couple like that like ATS last week and they held up and kind of melted up and we didn't get a followup so we'll see how this one ends up playing out but that is play number four there was even news on Boeing today but as far as everything else I told you about the options that I got out of the only other play that we made today for earnings was Ferg I saw that they just absolutely killed it had a crazy pre- earnings run up so I grabbed a out of the money put at like 18010 and it was like $20 and they were just there so thought it was a very great deal they were only pricing in 5% and then it went up before the close so I made it free did a ghetto spread on that and I sold the contract below it for more than I paid so no risk for earning sold out of arm shars got like a $600 profit and then that was the only trades I made and like I said I went after that uranium play but I got clapped on that but down to swing that here and we'll see how uranium plays out last time there was anything related to a bill it went a little crazy but we will find out besides that we'll ride the data still in bond plays I may look to exit some of those around some of the data releases this week other than that we'll take it all as it comes ride the golden path and see where Powell and the data will leave us but Chad Tad is your watch list ladies and gentlemen make sure hyre healthy ready to go make sure post your watch list make sure we see you there in the morning I need the armor on I need the helmet signing and I need you to remember you said make a habit after all of the disappointments being good because sometimes it is all leading you right where you need to be baby listen to the signs and don't fight it you are right where you need to be but Chad drink that water stay hydrated stay healthy I'll see you in the am. get ready for a lot more on the way and Horn
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