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결론: 빌 애크먼의 국채 숏 청산 발언으로 채권 반등이 촉발되며 하루 반등이 나왔지만, 지속성은 실적·지표에 달렸다는 진단. 암호화폐: 장중 약 5% 급등, 현물 ETF 식별자(CIP) 발행 루머와 후속 뉴스로 시간외 움직임이 이어짐. 방향성 구체 예측은 없음. 채권·금리: 10년물 금리가 5% 부근에서 등락. 최근 3~4일 채권 반등 후 다시 고점을 찍는 패턴이 반복되어, 안정화 여부는 1~2주 뒤에나 확인 가능하다고 봄. 빌 애크먼 발언: 경제 불확실성이 크고 연준이 결국 금리 인하로 선회할 수 있어 채권 숏을 하지 않겠다는 취지. 그 발언만으로 채권 시장 전체가 반등한 점을 의아하게 평가. 주요 지수 및 기술적 레벨: S&P500 4,200선이 핵심 지지·저항으로 제시됨. 이 선을 지키지 못하면 경기 연착륙 실패 우려가 커진다고 언급. 올해 4,200 상회 시 S&P 약 10% 상승 사례를 근거로 듦. 실적 발표 일정: 다음날 장 시작 전 방산·코카콜라 등, 시간외에 마이크로소프트·알파벳·스냅 등 발표. 애널리스트 추정치 대비 MSFT는 클라우드(Azure), GOOGL은 클라우드 추정치 편차가 쟁점, SNAP은 일일 활성 사용자와 현금흐름이 관전 포인트. 개별 포지션: MSFT 옵션 양방향 소액 매수(풋 295, 콜 355, 주당 0.6달러·0.52달러 수준), 메타 콜 옵션, 인텔 콜 옵션(엔비디아 CPU·ARM 뉴스 이후 약 50% 급락), ARC 1월물 콜 옵션 10계약(46 행사가, 주당 0.38달러) 보유 사실 언급. 리스크: 실적·경제지표(PMI)가 나쁘면 채권 반등 반전 가능, 반등 지속 여부 불확실. 옵션 포지션은 손실 가능성 있음. 진행자 전망: 단기 반등은 가능하나 지속성은 불투명하며, 실적 결과가 시장 방향을 결정할 것이라는 견해.
다듬은 글
all right ladies and gentlemen I hope you had a wonderful day we have a ton that we need to talk about number one crypto is going crazy after hours and has been going nuts all day number two we have to talk about Bill Amman covering his short and pretty much sparking the rally the entire day even though we still ended up closing red on most indexes and three we have a bunch of earnings tomorrow morning everything from defense stocks to COC Cola then after hours you have Microsoft Google Snapchat visa and a few others and I have a whole breakdown with the upto-date latest analyst expectations and I even made a couple of plays today so we're going to go over all of that but it was another wild day I'm telling you the bond market we woke up to another day of bond yields gapping higher or going down if you watch the market we even Gap gap down and remember Friday was not a good day so we gap down but sure enough Monday ended up being green as the other 12 or 13 Mondays have been but the real star of the show it was the bonds and the thing that changed everything we had no data today nothing to really look out for crypto was up like 5% in the morning and there was a rumor about a CIP number being issued this is like the identifier for ETFs in certain Securities so people got excited about that then there was news later that made it go up and then after hours right now crypto is moving but outside of any of that in the morning there was nothing else we were just reacting to bond yields waking up lower more war tensions and people kind of nervous about that and then another round of earnings not being good when on Friday we didn't leave off on a pretty good note to begin with so the bonds were down and then it was like couple minutes you got a early stream alert if you were on stream we had it very early and we even talked we're like okay this might change sentiment and this is something big we got to talk about because right when Bill Amman covered his bond how do you know he did that you wouldn't have unless he tweeted about it and that's all he did he tweeted about it people got excited a little bit you saw bonds get a bid and the market went up with it eventually by the end of the day the markets all ended up coming down NASDAQ held on a little bit but the bonds were doing a lot better and it was on nothing except Bill Amman closing and people were feeling good about that but the reasons he brought up make it all the interesting but I want to share something else with you one bill Amman said it has to do with the economy he says there's a lot of uncertainty right now where he doesn't want to be shorting bonds pretty much saying that something could go wrong and the FED would have to Pivot and cut rates and that's why he doesn't want to be short on it but that's not the main main point the real question is why in the world would his comments lift the entire bond market especially after we were dealing with a lot of pain and if you remember yesterday's video the other big factor of today it was also where the markets traded at and that was below 4,200 this is a very big make or break level we were talking about how if the market can't hold above 4200 with this much bearishness then maybe there is a hard landing at Play and why I think this level is important is go back throughout the years this is a level you have bounced off of multiple times when you drop below it the market got into turmoil when you got above it people felt good and then once you fell back below the market back into Carnage and then sure enough what right this year when we went above 4200 we went up 10% on the whole entire S&P so this 4200 level has a lot of meeting we briefly broke it and came back up but the funny part about all of this it was all just based off of the bonds calming down how in the world could bill Amman do that well it's not really about Bill acman the whole idea is it gave us a little bit of relief today but if this does not last it doesn't matter this is something I've been stressing today because if you remember two weeks ago it was something very similar you had the data bonds gap down then by the day we started going up and that whole week we rallied all the way up until Thursday and then the bonds started getting crushed and then it let it led us into this last week we just came off of but the whole point is we've already seen bonds blow off top get around five under five in this case barely this time we woke up above 5% on the 10 year but the general idea here is we've seen three four days of bond rallying that have led to another high on the bonds in a very short amount of time so can Bill Amman help out and maybe cause some of the sen and that squeeze effect and kind of chill out a little bit yes but if the other earnings aren't good the data ends up being bad and we run up into more issues then this may be very well shortlived so we are looking for Bond stability the only problem is you're going to have to wait like a week or two now to really actually get it and understand it because like the last couple of weeks showed us we could rally for the whole entire week and by next week you will be hitting a another high so that was a big part of the day Bill Amman covering the bonds and causing this unleashing but still pretty bad overall if you see here getting us at an interesting part of October that was number one and two I guess I did talk about the crypto but now the only other thing we got to be focusing on moving forward is earnings there will be a lot of consumer names in the morning like Coca-Cola and even some of those defensives I guess I guess missiles aren't really a consumer stock but there there is that PMI data in the morning all across the globe that has a chance to move the bond so whether or not we're going to see a rally let's see how the bill Amman short faces in the midst of data good or bad or maybe it all supports it but either way now earnings after the bell and that leads us to the good part let us get into the play so right off the bat as far as plays we're going to go over the earnings I have a breakdown for you of the main ones after hours tomorrow so here's the list we went over these live on stream but this is what you are going to be reacting to by the morning alongside that PMI data now what I have for you on Microsoft alphabet and Snapchat I want to show you the earnings previews but I also want to give you an update on how analysts have adjusted leading into all of the Carnage pretty much you have heard about analyst r raising and lowering ahead of the move well there is a couple of updates with these and I brought this up the other day because this will be important to monitor so I don't know what's going to happen I did go over a couple of option plays and I will share those with you but the thing is we have no idea and I'm sharing this with you now so we could get an idea of how some of these companies with raised or lowered guidance coming into the report how are they going to perform so here's the names but let me go get them all up hold on give me a second all right here it is so let's start off with Microsoft this is our traditional earnings preview and this one is up to date there's not that many changes pretty much analysts are right here with the numbers both analysts and the company the forecast is around 54.525961 now are expecting that productivity in business will bring in 18.19 billion and guidance from the company was 18.3 analysts believe that cloud is going to do 23.49% they're covered a lot by analyst and two this is why I think earnings is going to be such a big deal if you do good and blow out these numbers there should be a reaction either good or bad depending on the result because I think a lot of people are are hyper focusing on these names there's a lot of estimates so for something to kind of fall out of the range it means that something big has happened so here are the numbers for Microsoft and they're down 5.6% since last Clos the Market's down about about six to I think even 10% at this point this one might not be as updated and then xlk Tech is also down 6.6 options imply a 5% move last four quarters for earnings on Microsoft the latest one they lost 4% then they gained 7 to one before that lost one and then lost eight as well Revenue has beaten 17 of the last 20 quarters and EPS has beaten 19 of the last 20 so this is all for Microsoft nothing too crazy really if you have read the reports it's going to boil down to their Cloud the Azor that has been the biggest Focus we've been hearing a lot about PCS as well with some of the chipmakers as well as their Microsoft teams and Ai and how that plays in so we'll find out but the answer for a lot of companies in the tech space pretty sure it's still going to be cloud and then maybe some of the hardware and Computing but we'll see how Microsoft plays out I did make a play on it so we'll go over that here on the option chain as far as the play that I made it's pretty much what I showed you guys yesterday the two standard deviations the 295 put I grabbed two of these for $60 a pop and then I grab two of the 355 calls for 52 cents a pop and it's just outside of two standard deviations double the expected move we went over that on yesterday's watch list thought I'd go with it so it's like what 120 and 100 like 220 both ways the other plays I did go a little bigger on here and if you remember I did play the last Microsoft Nvidia Google I think all of those on the pre- earnings and if you remember the pre- earnings run-ups last time they weren't too good we had a lot of success last earnings with some of the options with a little bit more time but that we're playing the earnings and the companies were already dead a little bit so we'll see how this one plays out but going to be writing that one into tomorrow keeping it small if anything we can make one free or if it's a small amount could write it through and play the earnings but that is number one then number two now let's talk about young Google and now this is where things get very interesting because you'll see I have these little notations because this is the earnings preview this is what it's discussing or where the company and analysts are at but what I've noticed is that where the analysts are at now there is a couple of subtle changes so this could give us a couple of hints and it'll give you an idea of how analysts feel about some of these companies and I will tell you I bid thee to pay attention I don't know why I keep saying that the but it's it's good to say but if anything look at the earnings that from last quarter there's some companies that killed it Google literally up 11.9% I think Amazon did very well last earnings as well too so keep that in mind because some of these names it could give you a idea of why analysts feel the way they do but as far as Google you'll see here the revenue showing 75.9 n but the current estimate for guidance right now by analyst is 76.0 so the current guidance here this is pretty much lower than where analysts think it's going to come in at then you take a look at services that one's at 66.9 3 billion analysts are currently at 66.5 so they think that's going to do a little worse advertising is at 59.2 billion slightly higher than where they have it at 59.1 14 this is where it gets very interesting because their cloud has a very weird number I have some analyst expectations like all of them showing 1.3 and then I see one Analyst at like 8.3 or 8.6 so this is a very interesting number it kind of relates into the AI stuff as well too but I do think that cloud number I was just saying for Microsoft this may be the Black Swan For Better or For Worse for Google but we'll see how it plays out tomorrow that's the one that really stuck out to me they had updates on their hedging losses showing a gain of $35 million I think the estimate right now is at5 5 million everything else pretty much in line with what the company and what analysts are at EPS I believe analysts are expecting it to be $146 1 C higher and then cash from operations the company is expecting 26.07.2013 much saving half a billion dollars and then free cash flow the company was saying 16.3 and analysts think they're going to come in at 16.7 so the point is most of the metrics where analysts are at compared to the company analysts think Google should do a little bit better and then their free cash flow is going to drop a little bit less and like I was telling you Google was one of the names that already did very well on the last earning so that's how it's going to play out I think this one has a higher bar to be I think Microsoft is pretty much in line company and where analysts at they're like right in the middle playing the range and now let's go to our favorite one number three I got Snapchat for you so this one is going to get interesting because you see here this is where the analysts are on the left and when it says guidance that's what the company has issued but I noticed everything is very subtle so for the most part this is in line and the thing about Snapchat tomorrow they are coming off of that rumor of like leaked full year guidance it did change some things but for the most part an are expecting 1.1 billion Revenue just on the lower end of the range that the company gave none of the metrics overseas or not there wasn't big changes on that if anything the daily active users number it looks like the company's at like 45.7 and analysts right now are like 45.8 nothing crazy same average revenue per user and all of that they have cash from operations this is the biggest one and we'll see how it plays out tomorrow but company was forecasting a loss of 30 million or 300,000 and right now analysts are at break even and then capex the company was expecting 20.2 and analysts are thinking they're going to save $200,000 and come in at 20 flat so all of the guidance everything else is in line again Snap Chat they are a loser since last quarter down 23% S&P down 6 to9 same thing with tech options are implying a 19% move and last four quarters for the last year loss of 14 loss of 17 loss of 10 loss of 28 Revenue has beaten 13 of the last 20 quarters and EPS has beaten 12 of the last 20 quarters with one in line so maybe the win but I I even think if you go last six earnings it might it might have been even worse so either way it's going to be a wild one but the point is on this one I think the bar is right in place if anything Google has a slightly higher bar seems like Microsoft and Snapchat are both in line and now tomorrow let's go off of the opening and see what we get from there but far as anything else the other plays oh I forgot to show you the other earnings plays I did go for a meta play this one was the 270 I only went on the callide and this one was a trip uh because if you see where I bought it and I think this was just cuz the volatility during the day but I got it at like 9:46 a.m.
so you'll see it like right around here where the options were but I bought two of them or four of them at $60 a pop but 946 when you take it to the Chart you'll see I was pretty much at the bottom of the day and it ran up but those options are down to 40 cents now so that one was a real trip there but I went for an upside play again the options everything was selling off I figured this was the two standard deviation one a little further out grabb four of them at 60 cents that was my second earnings play and then I went for Intel later this week and this play was actually doing good I had the opportunity to get at 10 got filled at 12 at one point it was going up there uh to like 14 or like I think even show like 16 or 17 on the bid at one point it was going pretty wild this was the first play that actually started moving and then that news there with uh Nidia getting in the CPUs and hiring arm we had that news very early on stream you even got a free stream alert if you saw that but that brought down Intel kind of destroyed that play that one dropped about 50% instantly and then the final play that I made on the day this this one is very interesting this was right after the bill akan news I was making all of these earnings plays but it was Arc and the reason was because Bill Amman covered his bond short and I've always talked about how Arc is like a ghetto rate play and well I saw the opportunity with earnings and everything else and how beaten down things are if there is going to be a rally got some time on this and I played the January contracts again that option chain ran deep but the only sad part about this time around it doesn't like you know there's there's not that much time it's only 88 days left versus what we were playing like 3 months ago if you really think about that that one was a wild one but I decided to go with these contracts right here it is the $46 call I grabbed 10 of them at 38 cents of pop so they were up and then they came down with the market and everything else but that was everything else besides that going to be watching earnings see where it takes us see if the bonds could hold the rally and then hang on for the rest of the week and where we end up but that is your watch those ladies and gentlemen make sure Hydra Healy ready to go make sure post your watch list make sure we see you there in the morning I need the armor on I need the helmet shining and I need you to remember a more Fati and what comes with that same Latin phrase momentto Mori that's what I said bring meaning to the life it's not that morbid dog it's very simple bring purpose and meaning the fleeting L of life means you have a time here to do something it's not mean that it's for meaninglessness oh my gosh I'm just I'm getting you have to be there for the felo man you have to be there for the felo I love you Chad God bless you maybe I'll see you on 2K tonight but I love you God bless you see you in the morning and Horn a
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