저자: Kevin · 외국인
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비트코인 현물 ETF(iShares, IBTC) DTCC 등록은 승인 임박 신호. 그러나 ETF 승인 직후 과열 구간보다는 60~90일 뒤, 금리 인하 전에 투자하는 게 낫다는 논리. 금리 고점 시기 ETF 출시는 금리 인하 시 위험자산(BTC) 상승에 유리. 장기적으로 채택은 느리게 증가할 것으로 봄. 본인은 BTC에 강세·약세 입장 없다고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
in this video we're going to discuss the approval of the Bitcoin ETF should you invest in Bitcoin and what could this mean for the future price action of Bitcoin let's touch on it by first getting to the excitement so the dtcc which is basically a Clearing Corporation it's literally part of their name uh service providers like ETF creators uh can end up having their shares cleared through the dtcc ultimately have has a new listing showing up on their website and it's ibtc the I shares Bitcoin uh ETF and this ETF is tracked by Eric now Eric here uh is a Bloomberg reporter and he's a big deal in terms of following ETF launches and he writes the following he writes the I shares Bitcoin trust has been listed on the dtcc depository trust and Clearing Corporation which clears NASDAQ trades and the ticker will be ibtc again this is all part of the process of bringing an ETF to Market that's right you get your ID you get your ticker your title has to be approved your name naming is very important with ETFs has to be approved by the SEC I know because I have an ETF that's listed on the NYSC ARCA and it's a big process you have to get all these steps in place before you're actually ready to start functioning now one of the cool things about this though is it means maybe we're actually getting close to that official BTC approval now we've seen many false starts and sort of leaks around the idea that oh here we go the Bitcoin ETF is coming and we've regularly rallied from 26 27,000 to 30,000 and then we get rejected by 30 and every time we get rejected by 30 we fall back down but now we've broken out and it's crazy because if you look at the chart you can see the Fibonacci are working almost perfectly look at this as soon as we got our breakout on this lower region here what happened boom right up to the next FIB level oh close to about 359 we're sitting about 354 at a Max right now it's trading for about 34 uh and so the question is will we actually be able to break through that next fib after the official BTC ETF approval well so let's talk about this first it's really important to start by remembering that the SEC has been very anti- crypto and this is led by Gary gendler the chairperson of the SEC Gary gendler in a now pretty famous interview on CNBC said what do we need digital currency for we already have digital currency it's called the dollar now I personally don't think that Gary gensler's comments resonate with everybody at the SEC or quite frankly resemble what America wants I actually think that most of America when it comes to BTC looks at it as look if people want to invest in BTC and Bitcoin they should have the right to be able to do so in the safest and most secure and accessible manner possible now this is of course where we're going to get into a little bit of a debate because theoretically the SA EST way to store your Bitcoin is by having your keys on a hardware wallet which is just a set of words right this is encryption keys or these are encryption Keys the problem with that is you could end up like the guy who ended up you know basically trying to unbe a landfill because he threw away his Hardware keys and apparently didn't have enough Hardware backups if you're going to go Hardware at least have many Hardware backups in different places of the world okay you know get a safety deposit box in New York York get one in Seattle get one in Florida and get one in Cali you know if you've got a lot of money in these Hardware walls but the problem with this is all that takes hard work so it will reduce your adoption to people who are sort of really into this these are like your first adopters it's like sort of your 20 to 45y old dude who buys a Tesla okay the next big thing for Bitcoin is how do you get moms in it how do you get Grandma and Grandpa in it you know how do you get older dudes in it that's what matters for your next wave of real adoption because having an ETF now allows other institutional investors to actually buy into Bitcoin outside of something like the grayscale Bitcoin trust problem with the grayscale Bitcoin trust is it's always wanted to become an ETF but because it's a close-ended fund and not an ETF it's almost always sold at a discount and that's left a lot of people really bitter about Bitcoin because they're like bro you know our institution invested in the great scale Bitcoin trust and it sells at you know 30% discount on average which is crazy I mean during the hype cycle was selling for a 30% premium because institutions couldn't get enough of their money their their hands on bitcoin but all of that goes away like you don't even have to know what any of that means what I just said all of those problems go away when you have an ETF because an ETF trades at what's known as a net asset value nav that's actually a really big deal nav is what are the underlying assets worth and that's roughly what it's going to trade for that's because you have these we we call them mini market makers called authorized participants and they basically mini market make ETFs uh to Arbitrage price differences and keep the ETF trading as close to net asset value as possible okay in English ETFs are substantially more liquid this means it's a lot easier for an institution to go we're putting money into Bitcoin today we're taking it out tomorrow right that liquidity increases people's interest in adopting Bitcoin it increases people's interest because people don't want to feel like they're locked into something unfortunately when you have this sort of liquidity you're not necessarily going to get a massive flood of investors day one and I do think you're going to get a big flood day one but the question is will that be substantially higher than people think is every pension fund is every hedge fund is every other actively managed ETF going to turn around and start or even passively managed ETFs which are like more than 95% of the market are they going to turn around and start adopting Bitcoin probably not in high levels yet and I'm going to explain how I think this works out and how it plays out for the price of Bitcoin got to throw in a plug though my real estate startup house hack if you're looking to diversify we're basically raising money at net asset value one: one cash right now that's crazy for a startup to be raising money at a on toone valuation basically when you invest you know say we raise $10 million the valuation of the company's $10 million that's wild obviously they're processing fees that the company pays and stuff like that to raise money but the point is we're nearly raising at net asset value which is amazing that means nominal if any dilution for investors very very rare learn about house Haack as the circular has to be that but read about it obviously there are risks investing in startups but I'm really excited about it and uh you know I feel like personally I'm like so all-in committed to house act it's my baby can't guarantee it but knock on would we got we got to kill it so anyway going to my trajectory here on pricing for BTC so I think what we're going to have and many of you who follow me for a while know I talk about this a lot when it comes to the stock market having a sort of a Nike Swoosh recovery in 23 a volatile Nike Swoosh that's basically roughly what we've had so far with the stock market when it comes to the adoption of crypto I think you're going to have a very very very elongated swoosh of adoption unless there's some kind of hype cycle again between now and that next hype cycle a very slow kind of moving increasing adoption of BTC which could support prices going up we know we have finite Supply we have the next having coming up in 181 days uh there there are a lot of catalysts on the horizon but the start of ETF approval basically opens up the door to institutional Investments institutions are just other active ETFs passive ETFs Pension funds hedge funds right these are institutions the problem is they can only really throw money at that door to the extent that their underlying investors want Bitcoin exposure so for example if I have a an ETF I have to look and say well do my investors want Bitcoin exposure you know if I have an ETF that is thematic on you know let's say there's a theme where it's like I think uh you know an ETF that you start in a high interest rate environment will do really well if you invest in pricing power stocks that will do exceptionally well as interest rates start coming down let's just say that happened to be a strategy then uh that's a strategy that you would have to sort of pit against well does that include BTC well maybe maybe not it it depends uh people could make the argument that BTC could be used as a hedge but the problem is BTC is not a hedge to high beta stocks it basically is a high beta stock okay what does that mean in English it basically means Bitcoin is less of a a gold store digital gold uh it is an element of that of course it is less of an inflation hedge it is an element of that of course Finance Supply it's more of a risk asset which means Bitcoin probably does well as interest rates come down which means launching a Bitcoin ET F when interest rates are potentially at the peak is quite possibly one of the best times to launch a Bitcoin ETF which means from the perspective of a Speculator speculating on a Bitcoin ETF maybe a month or two after launches could be really desirable okay why a month or two after launches okay so uh let's let's explain this thesis and and and no I'm not going to Pat myself on the back and say I called the two top of Bitcoin on video you could see my Tik Tok for the receipts uh I think I just did exactly what I said I wasn't going to do but is that characteristic of flip-flopping or is that a joke I don't know anyway so let's speculate okay so let's draw a high interest rate environment so let's call this interest rates this is what interest rates have done let's let's say interest rates Peak like this and then you have this okay let's say that's your interest rate future this assumes that there's not some kind of dramatic crash and then you get a massive plummet right that's possible too so if this is the interest rate trajectory and the Bitcoin ETF launches here ibtc which will probably lead to the other ones we don't know that it's official yet right but if this is the case then you're probably going to have most of the hype here and I personally would probably want to be as close to here as possible which is not here uh I don't know that I want to be part of the initial hype cycle I want to let you know the aps get into their Arbitrage Groove that'll minimize spreads uh I think that btc's valuation itself will be very pumped up on this approval but I think adoption will be a lot slower right like you you will see an increase like this but then I think you'll get something like that okay so you get this you know initial surge of Investments and then you get this slow kind of swoosh up over time as rates come down okay that means I don't really personally think I want to invest at the peak hype cycle when there there'll be less liquidity for that ETF I probably want to invest 60 90 days later as the hype cycle dies but before interest rates start getting cut so that's that's my thesis now look you have to determine your own thesis it's really important that I mention I don't have a bullish or bearish position on bitcoin I mean maybe I have a leftover coin or something somewhere but as far as I'm aware of my portfolio doesn't contain crypto an licensed and nor is a tax legal or otherwise personal advice t shall not be deemed a reasonably sufficient or endorsed uh uh you know set of content for the purposes of evaluating a security okay that's really important and then I know some people might be like wait but but is it a security okay whatever you call it because that debate just really doesn't matter right now whatever you call it I can't make any kind of guarantees for you or promises uh but what I can say is yeah I I would I bitcoin's probably going to act as a risk asset and I think risk assets will actually do very well I'm optimistic you know I'm an optimist on on where we're going with the economy so uh that means I uh I don't think that we're going to have a massive Resurgence of inflation and I don't think we're going to have you know an ugly 2008 are we going to have year-over-year turmoil absolutely uh but uh ultimately I think that uh you you'll see a slow steady adoption for BTC it makes adopting BTC substantially easier it'll probably become something that people have in their portfolio as a level of diversification it's kind of like the people who are investing in house hack a big comment that we're getting is people are saying I'm looking to diversify into real estate you know I'm in crypto I'm in stocks I got to get into some real estate and uh that's how they're choosing to do it so anyway thank you so much for watching this is my take and we'll see you in the next one good luck and good
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