저자: Kevin · 외국인
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미국 국채 10년물 금리가 5%를 넘어 급등한 배경을 설명하며, Bill Ackman 등 영향력 있는 인물이 금리 상승 내러티브를 퍼뜨려 베팅 후 정리한 것으로 해석함. 인플레이션은 둔화 중이며 구리 가격 하락, 소비재·자동차 가격 인하 등을 근거로 제시. 테슬라 리더십과 소통 문제를 비판하고 Tesla 매수 기회 가능성을 언급함. 중동 전쟁과 미국의 개입 가능성도 다룸.
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think the Market's rigged well I'll tell you what's rigged in this video I'm going to break down what the H double hockey sticks is not just going on in the stock and bond market right now but we'll talk fed and we'll talk a lot of the other stuff going on cuz there's a lot going on the first thing obviously we have to cover is this this is a disaster you know what this chart is well let me put it this way let's say you're a guy uh whose name we won't mention we'll say that person's name is schmill schackman and that person goes short the treasury bond market right about here where this green line is okay so in order to go short the bond market you actually want this line to go up because this is a chart of yields just know up means you're making money on this case okay so you go short here and all of a sudden the Market's not working out for you so what do you do you really start going on social media around the last few weeks of August and and you start pumping this idea that you know what rates are going to have to go quote well above 5% they're going to smoke through 5% I want you to keep that in mind now okay well above 5% that's a very important line okay rates are going to go well above 5% there's so much inflation that's going to happen from the wars and everything is so horrible in the economy we've had so much inflation now we're going to have even more rates are going to Skyrocket now this schmill schackman has a lot of clout on social media but not just on social media most importantly amongst institutional investors those are hedge funds Pension funds trading firms firms that are like hm okay we know Market manipulation is illegal like we can't all do the same thing and coordinate because we would be manipulating the market but if we all happen to have the same opinion that that we're talking about on social media then maybe that's okay that's basically kind of how it works okay somebody has an idea on social media they're they have a history of kind of being the person to follow and then what happens that amplifies when's the last time this schill schackman did this well how about coid in the depths of Co you have a bunch of long positions but then you buy a bunch of weekly puts or really short-term puts don't know how short-term but very short-term puts maybe 20 $30 million of short-term puts you know you got a CNBC interview coming out and so you go on that CNBC interview and what do you do you smash the economy to Smither by talking about how during coid at Peak fear and you're a an expert what should the entire Market do everyone shut everything down for 30 days sure well what are you going to do when you shut manufacturing and businesses and everything down for 30 days you literally take a third of company profits earnings away you remove that and then you create longer term damage as well right so you know the likelihood is if people resonated with your opinion stocks would plummet in the short term that would give you good profit on those short-term options which you could turn 20 40 50 million into a billion dollars roughly what happened with schmill schackman roughly okay we're rounding a little bit here for the purposes of brevity and then you could use that to buy the dip when prices are low and then you make money both ways you make money on the way down you make money on the way out now who makes the most money well the person everyone's folling following and in this case it's Bill akman schmill schackman what it's everybody knows okay so because of that reputation people like damn that was kind of messed up but it was also kind of shrewd see we don't want to say that's illegal it's not illegal to have an opinion right like I could sit here here and go I think treasuries are a great thing to buy because I think as the inflation that we're seeing the rate of inflation Falls I think bonds will cap out somewhere and then they will start skyrocketing I obviously can't make that guarantee but that's my belief right I think longer term inflation it'll take more time it'll take patience to come down but it'll roll over that's because every single day almost every day I'm studying company earnings calls especially with our course members and we're like man all of these companies are like we had a lot of inflation but now we're not seeing new inflation or raising prices 1 to 2% look at some of the Staples whether it's Target Walmart Pepsi look at the Autos well that's like pure price reductions you just have to look at Tesla do that obviously Autos are very cyclical when rates go up car prices go down and so this latest surge is one of the reasons probably Elon Musk is so depressed is because he's reading all of the echo chamber stuff on Twitter I highly believe that he's reading the echo chamber stuff on Twitter that yields are going to keep going up up up up up Bill schackman is somebody people respect and so you even get people like Elon Musk who go oh man this is depressing that means we're going to have to cut prices even more I personally think Elon Musk should have a formula a formula where he's like look for every uh I don't know uh 50 basis points that rates go up prices come down minus 1500 bucks right and so then it's formulaic then you tell buyers hey look if rates go up another 50 we're going to drop the price, 1500 bucks rates went up 5% guess what we drop prices 15 grand okay you have a formula now you're transparent to your investors and your customers but you know we we generally don't get the most ideal communication at Tesla that doesn't remove me as an investor from Tesla I just I just know that and then you buckle up because you know you're going in for volatility because you know communication is designed to help smooth problems over problems will always occur at companies that's very normal communication is is the solution to everything when people go dark it's scary scary times anyway so Bill schackman what does he do so Bill schackman over here says you know what uh I think we can squeeze this bond market a little bit more in other words we're going to short the bond market short the bond market the line goes up great so you short the bond market over here line goes up you start profiting right but at first it goes down so then you circulate on Twitter your thesis about how everything's going to hell and you're going to blow through 5% okay we know that then what do you do right here right before yields get to 5% all right we've covered our position we are no longer short we are now long bonds and then you make money when this line goes down the line is confusing because it's upside down because they yields but the point is Bill Amman basically perfectly played this okay created The Narrative made sure to benefit when this line goes up says this Line's going to go well past 5% gets to 5% dumps out okay that is very normal this is the same thing that happens with oil all the time and I want you to know this when companies have price targets it's all Bs because what they're really most of the time doing I and I can't say that as with certainty I want to be clear a lot of this everything I'm saying I just want you know it's my opinion okay uh some of the the historical contents I'm really rough around the edges just to keep this nice and simple and smooth but I'm trying to teach and provide lessons here when somebody says look I think oils going to 150 they're probably going to dump their long bets on oil when it gets to like 125 okay because everybody else is just going to front run them as it gets close to 150 and then by the nature of that it'll never get to 150 it's the same thing here okay you go we're going to blow past 5% and then what happens as soon as you get close to 5% people start wondering like are are we really going to blow past it and then you're one of the first people out and then once you're one of the first people out what happens oh wow the 10-year treasury down to 4.84% it's somewhat dare I say cunning okay like cunning the definition of it is here having or showing skill in achieving one's Ends by deceit or evasion being Artful being crafty I don't think Bill Amman is purposefully deceitful but let's just say do we really think that he wanted or thought everything was going to lock down for 30 days no that and I don't think he believed that either so that is somewhat deceitful for when when you're like oh yeah we should do this you know that's not going to happen so you place bets that things are going to move towards that direction and then you bail on them before you ever get there because you know that end goal that end reality is probably quite unlikely I feel like it's similar here the end goal of blowing past well past 5% on the 10e treasury I don't think it's extremely likely and I don't think that bill Amman thinks it's extremely likely either maybe 5 and a quarter but do we think it's going to go to 6 or 7% the way some of the social media talk is framed no of course not so then you kind of evade that reality I think that's the better way to put it right you evade the truth which is I don't really think it's going to blow past five and I'm a cover when I get close to five but I'm going to say that I think it's going to blow past because theoretically it could so therefore I'm not lying and then you cover before when you make your tendies that's cunning that is like in my opinion the definition of cunning again I'm not here to say anybody's being doing anything illegal or whatever I'm just saying it's cunning okay now what does it mean for us well as an individual investor it's so important to remember that we are the daily victims of these sort of bets I'm taking a lot of series and finra and SCC exams and I in my opinion what I'm learning about the institutions is when you peel curtain back a little bit everybody's a human everybody's just trying to do the best thing they can for themselves and that's important to remember right we peel back the court and it's like oh well you know what that makes sense Bill Amman is doing what is best for his fund he's going to play his clout and he's going to play the market with that is that market manipulation it's debatable anyway point is we as individual investors have to see through through this this volatility and it's very very difficult because we're like crap you know we see treasury yield Skyrocket like this and people are asking me Kevin they're like hey what does this mean for inflation does this mean markets all of a sudden think that inflation is is going to be a lot higher Are We Wrong about positioning for an environment when inflation is going to be lower you know is inflation all of a sudden taking off are we missing something you know when we look at the the 5year break even inflation chart it all it's all skyrocketed following uh bill amman's beted over here on the right even the inflation expectations are up does this mean inflation is back which if inflation is back some of the long Investments that you might be making for when interest rates come down n phase Tesla uh some of the cyclicals right these are going to be your manufacturers uh your consumer spend stocks if inflation comes back up those are just going to keep getting screwed and that's problematic because you don't want that uh you know but when you actually look at the underlying of inflation what do we see copper prices coming way down we're not as low as where we were we might never be that low again right and that's important to remember is we've had a lot of inflation at least 18% inflation and consider for a moment what that means if previously we were trading at about 6200 bucks for copper let's go 6200 time 1.18 you should be at about 7,300 bucks so to normalize back to an inflation adjusted level we're we're getting close you know copper should probably go down about 7948 uh probably about another 8% and then we're there they we're back at an inflation adjusted level that 18% again not back to these low levels but the point is copper is way off its highs why because production is slowing the cyclicals the manufacturing these things are slowing golly imagine if it weren't for the chips act or some of the inflation reduction act stimulus packages for electric vehicles or solar panels or manufacturing these sectors would be even more in the toilet than they already are they're already in the toilet they'd be even more in the toilet now all of that investment that's coming via the stimulus checks and we could debate the politics of that separately right whether we agree or disagree with that the reality is there the stimul checks are going to chips to manufacturing to electric vehicles to solar whether you hate those things or not that is where the stimulus checks are going okay those will likely pay massive dividends in the future we can't guarantee that I hold bullish positions in these I have to be transparent about that I'm not short the market you know so I could be equally biased like Bill schackman and that's fair but I think it's important for all of us individually to say okay break evens exploded treasury skyrocketed did the inflation narrative break the answer in my opinion is no the inflation narrative didn't break inflation was very high now it is growing much slower nothing has changed in that reality the only thing that's changed is you've got geopolitical turmoil with Israel Hamas Hezbollah Iran that has led to this idea that oh my gosh well when Russia invaded uh uh Ukraine weat prices skyrocketed and that led to supply chain challenges for automotives and other aspects and that led to more inflation true so what a perfect narrative to hit your bet on and make everybody think that inflation is really really bad and treasury Ys have a lot more work to do you make your bet as soon as you play your game your cunning game you cut and you're out and you make your money great you did what you needed to do for your investors did that change the narrative that we talk about here no now is this me putting on rose-colored glasses no not at all if anything I think I'm putting on glasses and it's like oh that's that's a ugly reality o I don't like the look of that because it it feels manipulative right it makes us as humans and individuals feel somewhat powerless to these crazy fluctuations that happen in the stock market and that's quite frankly the reality is we don't have control over this Insanity now it's also important to remember though that Mohammad Alan I think he made a great point he talks about in the fed's latest Financial stability report released Friday that treasury market liquidity is really really important for the financial system and we keep taking on more debt as a country so we need people to buy treasuries if people are manipulating the treasury market and all of a sudden people stop buying treasuries because they think the value of them are going to keep going down the the government can't fund the government can't pay its bills this is bad like like the debt or not again I think fiat's all garbage it's all going to blow up at some point in the future I don't think it'll be in our lifetimes so right now we have the rules of our game okay this is the game we play by we deal with paper money yes this is yes yes yes it's all okay we get it they could print this stuff all day long but the point is and and yes the debt is unsustainable and it's way too high is it a problem yes are we going to fix it anytime soon no so when we consider these realities the government's going to have to keep borrowing money well in order to keep borrowing money you have to have a functioning treasury market and so Muhammad here is making the argument we have to get back to like a normal Market you're in a position where the Federal Reserve is dumping treasury bonds onto the market if everybody tomorrow said screw this I ain't touching treasuries cuz the is dumping them all onto the market their values are just going to go down if people start not believing in the long-term value of these anymore then interest rates will Skyrocket the 10% and the whole system will collapse so there's a balance here there's a balance it's the same thing as the balance that you're seeing in Israel there's this this belief that uh is you know and when the war started this was very very commonly believed that Israel was going to invade and then there were debates about how long this Invasion would be you know some parts might be Blitz Creek style some uh Parts might be long incursion now I've been saying that hopefully it goes fast because the faster Israel can control what they need to or satisfy their mission the less innocent lives are lost that's all I care about right now is innocent Israeli lives and innocent civilians inside of Palestine these these countries are not the problem the problem is Israel versus Hamas terrorist groups and cells Within pales time if those terrorist groups are not present and Israel walks in to no resistance people stop dying I'm tired of being on Telegram and seeing dead or dismembered children every freaking day it's horrible it's not just children though it's men it's women it's adult it's grandparents it's cousins it's uncles it's disgusting like it is so humanly wrong now obviously it's so wrong for Hamas to do what they did but my point is all of this in my opinion needs to chill and we have to figure this out you know what we need we need like a treaty of West failure okay this is when the Holy Roman Empire and the French they were slaying each other for like what 30 years the Treaty of West faia ended the 30 Years War and that's interesting to some extent because I was born in west faia but anyway so so you look at the Treaty of West faia which was signed in us and MOA uh these two parts of it and together it was considered the piece of of West faia this was 30 years of this sort of cultural and religious battling that ended finally and it's very similar to what's going on in the Middle East now it's cultural it's land it's it's religious and it's terrible and it's end now the good news is you are seeing some of the Reigns get pulled in a little bit on how aggressive Israel will be or continue to be with their ground incursion now Israel is pointing out that well if we're too aggressive Hezbollah is going to attack us more from the north that's via Lebanon or well if we're too aggressive we might lose hostages and Hamas is starting to release hostages maybe we can get them to do more of that and uh you know well we don't want to see more Israeli soldiers die you know why this is happening you want to know the truth of why this is happening I'll be very very clear with you there is one massive reason this is happening the United States now you might be disillusioned with the white house and our government who's really running it you know you might be disillusioned with Trump I I politics sucks but the reality is as broken as our country is this is still the best freaking country in the world and you know what America the United States realizes that the benefit of an allout ground incursion in in Palestine is not a good idea in the Gaza Strip because Israel's not going to be the new government in that region Muslims and uh individuals uh who are you know uh racially Arabic they are never going to be governed by Israel it's never going to work so I think you have the United States and this is my speculation look we will fund your military we will fund your bombs we will fund your Iron Dome Israel but you need to chill you need to let Aid in from the south you don't need to invade yes we are going to help you get the hostages but at the same time we also need to try to negotiate with the terrorists nobody's going to say that publicly but I believe that's exactly what's happening but it will never be made public because that would be disgusting oh no no the public stances we don't negotiate with ch come on they're going to take every possible tool that they can to make sure that innocent lives are spared and that's my goal that's that's my hope at least uh or I shouldn't say my goal I mean I'm not involved in it but that's the goal I believe America has so what does that mean it actually goes back to the beginning of the video where we're talking about look we don't have control about all of this insane volatility what we have control over is is our own daily lives people are always like Kevin how how how am I supposed to feel okay working for you know xll per day when I lost three or four times that in the stock market in a single day and they you have to separate yourself from that you have to every single day when other people are getting sad and depressed you have to put one foot in front of the other and keep going it's really hard you have to like do you do you work less hard because your stocks are going up no just keep working ignore the stock market volatility now if you want to diversify I'm a big fan of you considering house Haack go check out house act now accepting investments from non accredit investors at house act.com read the offering circular watch the video all that good stuff but look at this I actually think we have a massive problem going on in our society Alaska Air pilot arrested for trying to turn off the plane engines mid-flight this was a pilot who was not one of the two pilots flying the plane but they were in the jump seat like apparently they reached over and tried to turn off the plane engines while they were mid-flight yesterday Sunday and uh and and the pilot Bas probably beat the crap out of him and subdued him thankfully and nobody nobody was hurt other than that individual but you know what's going on in America right now a depression epidemic finances are tough inflation is high relationships are skewed by social media every chick on social media has the beautify filter on basically okay like it is it is so impossible not to go on social media and feel like a loser everybody else is doing better but I'll tell you every single person no matter who you are has problems and challenges and has feelings even Elon Musk and we know that and I bag on Elon Musk too and I'm not trying to kick somebody when they're down I'm trying to send a message and speak on behalf of the Tesla employees who are reaching out to me going Kevin this makes us feel like trash we need better leadership okay that's different right me bagging on the Tesla leadership is basically trying to be somewhat of with the small voice that I have an activist of like Tesla get your act together get it together properly communicate to the expectations that people should have to the community all the Tesla Bulls who were mad at me they're like wait wait Kevin well why don't you just sell you're just a flip flopper and I'm like that's not true I mean I do flipflop I'm actually wearing flipflops right now uh so yeah I changed my mind when there's a better option I'm not flipping on Tesla if anything I'm like hey we should be buying more Tesla but the leadership creates problems in the short term people like come on Kevin why be upset this is a buy the dip opportunity because you lose the ability to attract employees even if you lose the next five best Engineers because the CEO is a knucklehead and maybe those five Engineers are are gay or they're lesbian or they're they're Tran uh or or or their uh you know whatever they they have they have certain uh beliefs that don't align with Elon musk's belief uh system and now all of a sudden because of their personal beliefs Tesla doesn't get that talent because of the stock volatility or the leadership at the company or the lack of communication and Clarity at the company then everyone net loses the executives lose the shareholders lose the customers lose everyone net loses from the loss of that talent that goes somewhere else that is stupid that's why I think when Tesla has asked hey how many cyber trucks are you going to deliver this year and Elon Musk punts the question yes I know other companies punt the question too but why aren't we just blunt like let's be blunt look hey we're going to have a delivery event we hope we can deliver maybe 10 a few dozen cyber trucks and we're going to ramp from there it's going to take time and as we've learned a Tesla things take a little longer but we think this is a revolutionary car that in the long term will be the best selling vehicle in the world whatever you could say that right but be honest about The Upfront you know people like oh c you know Elon who sounded really honest really does it sound really honest to dodge questions about what's happening in the near term does it sound really honest to tell the Mexican Government hey you know what we're going to build a gigafactory here and then on the earnings call say by the way we're going to slow walk this because we're uncertain about the economy what do you think that does for every other freaking country around the world you know Elon visited Taiwan and India and all these other countries suggesting maybe we'll build a factory here it's almost like it's like a an an ego trip oh yeah everybody lay out the red carpet for me I might build a factory here that's great when you actually do it but then when you say I'm going to build a factory in in Mexico and then you tell the world on an ear call you're going to slow walk it what are you doing you're telling all those other countries ah maybe it's good we're not doing business with him right now you know we'll get him when the Market's good but uh he doesn't deserve our support when the economy is bad I don't know man like I like again I think there is depression everywhere one of the reasons though we do have more depression truly a social media in my opinion I think shorts make everybody's lives seem so perfect it's very dangerous I think uh the beautify stuff that we see with with women or people of the opposite Sexes bad people only show good stuff generally on social media it's not good and when you get on Twitter it's a Cess pool it's almost all negative sorry like I have a hard time going on Twitter and not feeling like the world is about to end so I like to try to be a voice of reason you know people are like oh but Kevin you should be posting on all platforms you know what maybe the only platform I belong on is YouTube and quite frankly I'm okay with that because I love it here I get to share my perspective and hopefully it helps you thank you p
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