저자: Josh-소속미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
FOMC 의사록 발표를 앞두고 마이크론은 반전 캔들 형성으로 996 재테스트 가능성 제시, 엔비디아는 하락추세로 200일 EMA(약 172) 및 165 지지 하향 가능성 제시. 화이자는 과매도 및 배당 매력으로 23달러 부근 매수 관심 표명(본인 매수 언급). 자막 특성상 가격 수치는 일부 부정확할 수 있음.
다듬은 글
The biggest catalyst this week will be tomorrow at 2:00 PM EST when we get the FOMC notes. This will give us an idea of whether we have an overly hawkish Fed, or perhaps a moderately hawkish Fed. The idea is to assess this level to understand what the Fed can do next. Today I'll talk about a few extremely important stocks that are part of the AI growth story, and whether it's time to buy or sell.
I get asked a bunch of questions about Micron MU, and I'll take you to this chart and tell you what I think is happening and where it's headed next. There are also a bunch of people who are into double-leveraged semiconductor SOXLs and SOXSs, and they're trying to figure out whether they should get in, get out, or what to do with semiconductors.
So let me just get started. I'll take you to this chart. We'll also look at another big tech stock that is extremely important to many investors. Okay, I've talked quite a bit about Micron. We are looking at 12- hour candles, and we have a clear, partially developed head and shoulders pattern. This is what I think we will eventually get, and that's the point.
This candle now, while it didn't go as low as I would have hoped, given the more traditional head and shoulders pattern with a straight neckline, it would have aligned perfectly with prior support, and it would have been an extremely attractive entry. I think a lot of people would buy it, including me.
The thing is, this one is a little tilted. This is a very clear reversal candle, so I think it is much more likely that we will move back up and test 996 this week. Now the only exception will be how those FOMC notes go tomorrow. So a lot of people are trying to figure out: Is it time to go back to Micron?
And the fact that it turned around to a clear and obvious support level today means that it is forming a higher low, not a lower low or even a double bottom, and that there were a bunch of worried buyers . I think we'll know by the end of this week whether we'll continue to grow. I think this was an early reaction from the bulls and they could just as easily reverse after the news event tomorrow.
However, I will say that those who got inside are feeling pretty good as this is a fairly bullish candle that clearly looks like a reversal candle at this point. We'll take a closer look at Micron this week. Yesterday I got to express my technical predictions on SPCX. I told everyone we had reached the top of the range.
I identified the top of the range for you and said the next step would be to go back to the bottom of the range, and that happened. So we should continue to watch this 150 level. The minimum price is 150, and if it falls below this level of this stock, then it will be an absolute rainbow move. I expect a small bounce initially, but again , SPCX will react similarly to the Fed's actions.
I will analyze two more stocks for you. I just bought one, I have a large amount of the other, and the direction of its movement is very important to me , but let me just take a breath and welcome you to Wall Street. This is the show "Promotions with Josh." Today we traded live in the Stocks with Josh community on Chart Goat University and it was a review of the screener and my trading rules and in my opinion it was a great success.
Lots of celebrations, lots of earnings. Every call was perfect. We contacted them, took into account the technical specifications, and once it met our criteria, once we got in, everything went like clockwork. We did it again and again and again. All wins, no losses. Why are n't you there? The tool level is available to you today and I will be trading live with the community every day this week as well as doing a bunch of tutorials.
This week it's a masterclass on how to use my tools, but more specifically how to understand charts. Visit Stocks with Josh Discord at www.stockswithjosh.com. Join me, come in today and trade with me tomorrow. Okay, a few more events I need to address. The next stock is Nvidia, and it has received some support from a popular analyst, but some people are calling it the kiss of death, and you should know what I'm talking about.
I appeal to those who believe in reverse Cramer. I personally like Jim Cramer, but Jim Cramer recently came out and said that Nvidia is looking great here. Time to buy, and she has more or less blushed since then. Now the big question is: does she still have much room to fall and in what direction is she technically pointing me?
Remember, the price is the truth. We are letting the candles show us the way and I will quickly share with you what I think the chart is showing and what the key levels are. Let's look at Nvidia's chart. Okay, a lot of people are talking about Nvidia stock being overvalued right now. You have to remember that Charlie Munger said that if you buy high-quality blue- chip stocks on the 200-day EMA, you understand all the technicals you need .
You can see now that we are hovering above the 200 -day EMA and getting ready to touch it. We approached her. We continue to deploy. I will say that it seems to me that we are in a clear and obvious downward trend. How do we know this? Well, we have a series of lower highs stacking up one after another, with lower lows stacking up one after another.
And so now it's a matter of decision-making. I think there was some bullish sentiment, something like what we saw today with Micron, early buyers getting into the game. But this does not prove that the downward movement is over. I want to point out some very key structures in this graph. One of the most important lines I see is right here at the 165 level.
Now I'm going to emphasize this because it's important for you to understand where the real support is under this white 200-pound average...). And if we have a bad day , and we find ourselves below that 200-pound moving average , that's essentially a problem because the stock will go into a full-blown bearish trend.
You should remember, as I mentioned yesterday, Michael Berry increased his short position. I believe it was around $198. So he didn't believe the downward trend for Nvidia was over. Now I'm going to point out a few important things to you. See when was the last time we broke down and reached the 200-day moving average?
We did n't start to reverse until we were another 6% below the 200-day moving average. And that was the last time we reached it. So let's just consider it possible. If we were to go down another 6%, that would actually put us here at $172, which would bring us much closer to the key support level around 165.
I want to emphasize that when Nvidia had a much stronger downtrend, it actually came close to a 28% decline. Actually, I can't see it right now, but that's another level that I marked on my chart, at the 135 level, which is just meant to show you that it fell in this bullish environment, that it rose 28% below the 200-day moving average.
So let me summarize. The trend is clearly downward. We are at a key important structural level of the 200 -day moving average. If we were to do the same thing we did recently, that would mean we hit the 172 level. If we were to go back to the historical neckline that marks this entire range, including this 6% pullback, that would be a move to 165.
I think a lot of buyers would be interested at 165. And personally, I think Michael Berry, I'll just write his initials here, Michael Berry would probably close his position somewhere between 172 and 165, if I understand his track record. I don't think he would be a bear turned into a boar and wait for that 135 unless the macroeconomic situation went very, very far south.
So we will be watching this to potentially reach the 200 EMA. And the main conclusion I want you guys to make about Nvidia is that it's absolutely bearish . It doesn't have a turn signal. There is enough room for decline. It is within a clearly defined range. It has reached a series of lower highs and lower lows.
And if you try to guess the reversal point, when it is not far from the key structure, it is close to the 200 EMA, which is still below the price it is today. I believe the risk lies with the bulls who got in too early. The only exception is if the FOMC comes out and we find that the Fed is much more dovish than we thought.
And then that could change everything, and we could spend some time on the upside until we get this month's earnings report to get a better sense of how these stocks should be valued. Okay, the last stock I'm going to talk to you about is a stock that I briefly mentioned not too long ago , and that's Pfizer.
I like this one. It only fell because of the reduction in COVID revenues, but here's the thing: we're at a price that was lower than COVID revenues before they started, so I think it's back to some fair value. Beneath the surface, there is always a story about a bull bear. It hasn't turned around yet, but it's oversold, and if you go into the RSI (and I'm not going to spend a lot of time on that), if you go into the RSI every time it crosses below 30 on the RSI on the daily timeframe, it goes up sharply to 60 or even back to 70.
So I expect a move there. I will name the ideal price for me. The ideal price scenario is $23 and maybe a few pennies. This would be a perfect place to shop. This thing pays a 6 to 7% dividend, and if you're an investor, I can tell you that people are always looking for dividend-paying stocks, especially ones that are beating expectations.
If these guys get better-than- expected earnings or some good news comes out, the stock will go up. And this is another point. We're not that far away from the next earnings announcement event. It will take place on August 4th. And the last time Pfizer got 20 days to post earnings, its stock started to really rise ahead of the event.
Specifically, 20 days before that, it will be around July 16. So I bought some of this. I'm willing to buy more if we get back to $23. I'll like it even more. There are no guarantees now. This is an outsider. So I approach it cautiously. But then again, I often talk about a lot of deals and people don't do anything with them.
And then I go back to celebrate, and I celebrate sometimes alone or with a very small group. I'm not telling you to buy Pfizer, ticker symbol PFE . I'm telling you to add him to your watch list, start following him , and if he starts doing some of the things I talked about with the lines in the sand that I gave you today, then you can make some money.
Let me know what you think about Pfizer. And one more thought about Nvidia, and this is something Peter Thiel said recently. He essentially said that of all these AI stories, we're talking about upcoming IPOs, Anthropic, OpenAI , the only one that's really making money, other than going into excessive debt, is Nvidia.
Nvidia was the only truly worthy investment out of the whole bunch. That's his opinion, but I just wanted to remind you that Nvidia is still a solid investment in my opinion. I think the chart indicates that the down move is not over yet and those buyers who bought today may be in a little early and Michael Berry may make some money on his put option.
Share your opinion in the comments. Peace and blessings. Don't sleep on the promotions with Josh Discord. I have a few more great tools that we're launching that aren't in the tool tier yet that I'm really excited about. One of them will be a tool for finding stop losses. You will hear more about this in the coming days.
This is an area where many retail traders struggle to understand where to place their stop loss. Well, all my ingenuity and creativity is being put into a stop-loss finder tool that will appear and become part of the toolset, but it may cost more. If you start now, your actions will be counted towards your previous ones. Peace and blessings, friends. See you in the next video.
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