저자: Josh · 외국인
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S&P500은 VIX 40~60 급등 없이 20대로 되돌아가 2022년 약세장과 유사한 패턴이라 진짜 매수 신호는 없었다고 주장. 주간 거래량도 약해 기관 FOMO가 없다고 봄. 금요일 3월 CPI(예상보다 높을 것)가 다음 촉매. 엔비디아 182, 테슬라 350, MU 402 지지 여부가 중요하며 실패 시 하락 베팅 가능성을 언급. 본인은 특정 방향을 예측하지 않는다고 명시.
다듬은 글
So, should we have been selling today? Because it was a sell the rip moment, but should we have been selling? Should we have been taking profit or should we be buying because this is going to continue higher? I've got to share with you some things in the charts and explain to you what we didn't get and what we need to get to get more bullish.
Welcome to Wall Street. This is the Stocks with Josh Show. It was a wildly, wildly profitable day. I had locked in some profits before this big move. And you know, no regrets. Those were in gains, but if I had held everything, it's one of those moments where you just be in shock and awe at the profitability of Wall Street.
Having said that, we had a beautiful live trade session this morning and more importantly, I dropped three very solid uh goat option alerts in the Stocks with Josh Discord. We got a 160% move on the Palantir flush. We also caught CRM to the downside for 100% and RKLB for 30%, but two of the alerts got over a 100% move.
These are the types of moves that leveraged options positions will give you. Let everyone know in the comments section if you rode those alerts down for big, big profits. But if you didn't, don't worry about it. Get into the Stocks with Josh Discord and I'll have three more for you tomorrow and hopefully they'll be as big of a winner as these were today.
Uh thank you for hitting the like and subscribe. I'm going to lay out for you three very important things I'm watching on the spy. I'm going to give you some critical levels for I think four stocks, four very important stocks to the retail community. These are the ones where there's a lot of buzz and talk right now.
What's going on with Nvidia? What's going on with Palantir? What's going on with Tesla? Again, should we be buying or should we be selling the rip? Well, I'll tell you right off the bat, I absolutely sold the rip today like everybody else and I'm watching things very, very carefully. What am I watching?
Well, the other catalyst events that we had today. We went from war and oil to now it's the Fed and inflation. Friday at 8:30 a.m. we're going to get the CPI read for March and that will be the next big catalyst ahead. What is the markets expecting? They're expecting a hot CPI read. Why? Because the cost of oil that had run up during the Iran conflict because a lot of companies will have raised their prices because they simply can't afford to show up on Wall Street with a bad earnings event.
So, we're going to be watching that CPI. We're expecting it to be hot. It's going to come out before the market opens and it will move the markets. So, let's quickly go over on the spy what we didn't get. Now, you guys know I talked about the VIX many times. I said that if we wanted a very clear signal, we had to see max fear, a max fear moment, a spike between 40 and 60 and that would and always has been a buying signal.
We never quite got it. Matter fact, what we got is something I said we didn't want to see, which is we didn't want to get up close to 40 and then fade back to 20. That is exactly what we got today. Now, that's the type of environment that gave us the 2022 bear market. Now, I know that a lot of folks are like, "Josh, all you should be doing is talking about how excited you are about the up gains ahead.
Don't even dare talk to us about a bear market or a recession. I am not bearish, okay? But, I am paying very close attention to what the market is not giving us. It did not give us a pivotal buy moment, a max fear moment, which when we've had that in the past, it has always been a great time to buy stocks and just to forget it and set it and go long.
We didn't get that. In addition to that, we didn't get the volume we need. Wall Street institutional money was hedging their positions, not loading up to go long. There's not institutional FOMO right now. Matter fact, that's the most important thing for me to show you in the chart so you can lay eyes on it yourself and understand that even though price went up volume didn't follow, which means that not everybody was buying and some were just using it as an opportunity to hunt out some liquidity to exit their positions again.
Let's go look at the volume on the spy and I'll give you the critical level that we need to stay above by Friday to truly stay in the bull camp. We did cross over the bull camp. I gave that to you guys before. That was the 675, but that's the level that we need to stay above. Let's go look at the spy chart.
All right, I want to remind you guys right off the bat that sometime back I predicted that we could possibly have a reversal moment at the 40 on the weekly time frame on the RSI and sure enough that is exactly where we did end up getting our reversal. Now you can see that we are driving up to the yellow moving average line.
We've yet to tap it and touch it. I expect that we will actually go through it. Now, what I want to point out to you, which I really really don't like, is the volume and you can see that last week's volume was subordinate to the four volume nodes that preceded it. So basically last week's volume was not reversal volume and it was a smaller node than the previous four nodes of selling pressure.
And this week, which isn't by no means over, we're only finishing up Wednesday. We still have two more days, but it is a pretty small little volume node that doesn't really match the size of the up move that we have just received. Now let's go back in time when the markets gave us a beautiful clear signal where the volume node back in April of 2025 was huge.
It dwarfed every single volume node for weeks and months preceding. That was a great reversal signal and it fed us into the 9-month move up that we had. Now you can obviously see that we have gotten nothing like that. Matter fact, the volume is just a little itty-bitty node. All right, so what exactly am I saying?
What I'm saying is the markets did not give us a super clear buy signal that we could confidently enter stocks and hold them for months ahead. However, we did have a powerful move up. We went back into the range. We're neither at the top of the range nor the bottom of the range. We're back in the middle of the range and we've got to hold that, especially going into this week.
If we cannot even hold it this week, we're in big trouble. Now, I give you guys what I call the two candle rule, which is always one candle to break above structure, but the second candle. And since we're looking at a higher time frame of weekly candles, you need the second weekly candle to stay above structure and to break the wick of the previous candle.
So, we have to confirm this up move is going to hold. For the time being, I'm sure you guys noticed that it was very much a sell the rip environment and the next catalyst is going to be Friday and that's going to tell us a lot as to whether or not the market wants to continue higher or cool off again.
So, I'm not making any predictions. I We made a ton of money today. We made money on taking risk when the markets were down. We made money running with the down move on puts. I plan to do it again tomorrow. Let's talk real quick about popular stocks and the levels they need to hold. I spent time trading Nvidia also to the downside and to the upside today and it's at a very critical level like a lot of other stocks like the S&P 500.
Let me give it to you guys. Nvidia has to hold 182 by Friday. If it can't do that, then there's going to be more money made going short on Nvidia. Tesla has to hold 350. It ran up all the way above 360. It gave it all back today. At bare minimum, it has to hold above 350. Now, I'm not telling you anything new.
I've covered Tesla two times. This will be the third time I've covered it and I told you in both previous videos where it would go and what it needed to hold this week. If it can't hold 350, then we go all the way back to the recent low that we just previously made this last week. And then we've got MU.
This is a popular stock. It's one that I called out. We bought on the dip. It had an extremely profitable and powerful move higher. It has to hold a minimum of 402 on Friday, otherwise it's not worth holding. Let me know what your most profitable play was today. I know for me it was PANW and META. And let me know what you have high conviction to hold right now.
I'mma leave it right there. Make sure you check out the Stocks with Josh Discord and try to get in there tomorrow before I drop some new trade alerts. Peace and blessings, my friends. I'll see you in the next video. What is it? Hold on. It's like clockwork. Good morning, everybody. 9:30 a.m. Let's go.
22% on that one. Yes. Want live trading sessions that don't stink? That was explosive. That's not right. Join us in the Stocks with Josh Discord for live trading sessions every weekday, morning sessions, power hour, and much more. No nonsense. No stink. That was great. Doesn't matter where you start. Learn to earn and take your place on Wall Street.
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