저자: MinorityMindset진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리는 주식시장이 거대한 버블이며 테슬라·비트코인 등이 폭락할 것이라 보고 ARK 펀드(ARKK 등)에 공매도를 걸었다고 설명한다. 버리는 과잉 유동성과 FOMO, 저금리 기반 신용(마진) 확대가 버블을 만들었고 곧 터질 것이라고 주장한다. 그는 리테일 투자자들이 펀더멘털보다 빚을 내서 쫓는 상황을 문제로 본다. 비트코인에 대해서는 레버리지 문제를 지적하며 폭락 가능성을 언급한다. 버리는 2008년 주택시장 버블을 미리 보고 공매도로 큰돈을 번 사례를 근거로 든다. 캐시 우드는 버리가 주택시장 위기는 잘 짚었지만 혁신 분야의 성장 동력은 이해하지 못한다고 반박한다. 그녀는 혁신 기술이 가격을 낮춰 디플레이션을 만들 수 있다고 본다. 인플레이션 관련해서는 버리는 극심한 인플레이션을, 우드는 향후 디플레이션을 전망하며 두 사람이 정반대 입장이다. 진행자는 단기 트레이더라면 시장 방향에 한쪽을 선택해야 하지만, 본인은 장기 투자자로서 단기 방향 예측은 어렵다고 말한다. 장기 투자자는 기업의 펀더멘털을 보고 보유하며, 폭락 시 현금으로 추가 매수하라고 조언한다. 진행자는 역사적으로 폭락은 반복되어 왔고 앞으로도 발생할 것이라고 본다. 다만 다음 폭락 시점과 규모는 누구도 예측할 수 없다고 강조한다. 영상은 중간에 뉴스레터·디스코드 가입 및 무료 PDF 가이드를 홍보한다. 또한 진행자 본인이 ARK ETF 일부를 보유하고 있다고 공개한다. 이 영상은 2021년 9월 기준이며, 대상 자산에 대한 명시적 1~3개월 방향 예측은 대부분 제시되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
it's the battle of stock market investors on one hand you have michael bury the person who shorted the housing market back during the 2008 crash and made a fortune and now he says that we are on the verge of the mother of all crashes and he says the stocks like tesla and bitcoin are going to crash on the other hand you have people like kathy wood who says that we are just getting started and now these two are fighting each other because michael berry is now shorting kathy woods etfs what's up everybody i am just pretty sing from the minoritymindset.com where money minds really think rich the stock market has been nothing short of crazy since this pandemic started and now it looks like it might be getting a little bit crazier michael bury is more of your fundamental value investor back during the 2008 real estate crash he saw that the housing bubble was super overvalued he saw it was super bloated and he saw a lot of risks in the housing market that's when he went out of his way to short the housing market because he thought that the entire housing system would collapse and he was right and he made a ton of money because of it if you've seen the movie the big short part of the movie was based off of his story on the other hand you have kathy wood another very successful and a very famous investor because she got onto big trends like tesla before it became popular and her etfs the arc fund have produced huge returns for their investors over the past number of years kathy wood has created a few different etfs under the ark umbrella and she mainly invests in trades on innovation by the way quick disclaimer i do have some of my own money invested in some of the arc etfs michael bury says that the stock market is one massive bubble right now that's on the verge of imploding and we're gonna see meme stocks and we're gonna see some of these startups and growth stocks implode because they are so overvalued kathy wood on the other hand disagrees she says that we're on the verge of a brand new innovation age so there's a whole lot more room for growth that michael burley doesn't understand well now they're both putting their money where their mouth is because michael berry is shorting the ark funds where he says that this bubble is about to burst so let's talk about what's going on in the stock market before we get into that i need you to do me a quick favor and smash that thumbs up button below and if you haven't already be sure to join our free discord server called the guac talk community because as you all know extra guac is truly a symbol of extra wealth and in this community you can chat with other minority mindset thinkers about the stock market the real estate market the cryptocurrency market and all things building wealth this community is completely free so if you want to join our free discord community i'll put the link to where you can do that in the description below let me start by reading you a quote from michael berry this is from a business insider article michael berry says that quote all hype speculation is doing is drawing in retail before the mother of all crashes when crypto falls from trillions or meme stocks fall from the tens of billions mainstream losses will approach the size of countries he then said that people's fear of missing out fomo has propelled asset prices stock prices to unsustainable levels because hashtag fomo parabolas don't resolve sideways so what michael berry is saying is that when he makes fomo plus easy debt so fomo is the fear of missing out and is also known as hype and speculation when you mix fomo plus debt you get a bubble which is about to burst according to michael bury the place that we're seeing this fomo is with retail traders retail traders are your non-professional amateur traders people that are buying stocks off of their phone and off their computer to things like robinhood and e-trade so he says these people your new traders are now buying stocks not because they understand the underlying value or the underlying fundamentals of a company but because they don't want to miss out on these huge run-ups and because they hear all their friends making all this money so they're buying these stocks with the help of easy debt because now debt is so cheap interest rates are so low plus margin is so accessible on so many different brokerage accounts so now when you mix this lack of financial education with this emotion of trying to get rich quick with easy debt this creates a bubble and michael berry believes that this bubble is going to burst soon which is why he's been shorting stocks like tesla which is why he says cryptocurrencies like bitcoin are going to crash and now he's been shorting the ark funds if we go back to the business insider article let me show you what he says about cryptocurrency he says quote the problem with crypto as in most things is the leverage if you don't know how much leverage is in crypto you don't know anything about crypto now michael bury isn't dumb he saw the housing market bubble before anybody else did and because he did and he acted on it he made a huge fortune but kathy wood thinks that michael berry is missing something by the way when you short a stock you make money when that stock goes down so kathy wood created an etf called arc and there's multiple different etfs under this arc umbrella where they change this last letter but arc k is an etf that invests in innovation the reason why kathy wood has become so popular is because she has made a lot of money over the last few years and not only has she made money for herself she's also made money for a lot of her investors because people who invested in arc over the last few years have made a lot of money to put it in perspective over the last couple years this etf has grown by something around 300 percent so not bad for investors well after word came out that michael berry was shorting the arc etf kathy wood came out and she didn't stay silent either so let me go to a cnbc article that went over what kathy woods said she said quote to his credit michael berry made a great call based on fundamentals and recognized the calamity brewing in the housing and mortgage market i do not believe that he understands the fundamentals that are creating explosive growth and investment opportunities in the innovation space it shows you as so many younger investors and traders especially are having a hard time trying to figure out what's going on in the market because you have so many big names that just completely disagree with one another like michael bury says we're gonna face insane inflation in the future while kathy woods says that we're gonna be facing deflation in the future right now we are seeing huge amounts of inflation where the price of everything keeps going up and it's becoming harder and harder for people to be able to support their cost of living because things are so expensive but what kathy woods says is that this might be changing in the future because of a few different things first all this money printing is going to get absorbed into the economic system second we could see a big surplus in supply because right now we've been seeing a huge demand from people wanting to buy things and not enough supply and this could switch as companies are trying to make up for this lack of supply so we could see a surplus of supply and third with all the innovations and technology this can bring the price of products down and so with more innovation and more technology coming this can push the price of products down which could cause deflation in the future so now that you have two polar opposite opinions one person says that we're about to see the mother of all crashes and somebody else says that we're just getting started so what do you do what does this mean for you and how do you invest your money to actually build wealth well the first thing you got to do is you got to make sure you have a stock market strategy and you got to make sure you're educated and how to invest your money in the stock market this is why our team wrote a free guide on how to invest your money in the stock market that goes over investing strategies and different ways to build wealth in the stock market this guide is completely free when you sign up for our daily newsletter so if you want to get our free stock market guide i'll put the link to how you can download this guide in the description below but the second thing you got to understand is you have to really know your strategy and your goals in the market if you are a short-term trader and you are trying to make money in the next six month or the next year then you got to pick a side you got to decide if you think the market is going to crash or if you think the market is just getting started so if you're a trader you got to pick aside what's going to happen me i am a long-term investor i don't like the idea of trading because it's very hard for me to guess what's going to happen in the next three months so for you long-term investors what you need to do is you need to stick to your strategy what is your goal because if you are a long-term investor then what you're trying to do is you got to figure out do you believe in our economy or not if you believe in the strength of our economy for the long term then all you need to be doing is buying and holding and now you want to let the economy do its thing because when you are a long-term investor we're not talking about six months we're not talking about a year we're talking about 10 years we're talking about 30 years this will give your company time to grow reinvest their money and then see the fruits of all the work and labor that they're putting in right now and this is where you're probably thinking but just breathe what if the stock market crashes i'd be able to buy stocks for half the price and you're right if the stock market crashes you would be able to get a huge discount on stocks but the question is nobody can predict when the stock market is going to crash and how big the next stock market crash is going to be and so the question is do you want to continue waiting for that to happen or do you want your money invested because if you're a long-term investor what you want is you want your money in the market and you want to let the market do its thing so now what you want to be doing is you want to find the companies you love you want to find the companies you believe in you want to own them and you want to own them for the long term then if the stock market crashes that's when you want to come in and buy even more the mistake that so many people make is they say that yeah i want to be a long-term investor i found a company that i believe in for the long term i like their products i like the fundamentals i like who's running the company and i think this company is going to be a great winner for the next decade or for the next three decades and then you buy this company and then six months go by and you're down seven percent in your portfolio you're down seven percent in the stock then you start to panic well why is this company going down if it's such a good company and now you're not sure are you still a long-term investor or are you a trader and now you might get panicky and you might sell because nobody likes to see your portfolio in the red nobody can perfectly time the market and if you are a long-term investor you should not be worried about these day-to-day swings what you want to understand is are you invested in a good company do you believe in the company and are they making more money now than before and are they making good products if so and if you believe in this company you should just continue buying and holding if the stock goes down even more this is when you want to just come in and buy more if you no longer believe in the company because something changed maybe the executive structure changed maybe their products suck maybe something's wrong with their financials and they have too much debt that they cannot afford what they're doing they can't run their business profitably based off of their financials then you might want to consider selling because something's fundamentally wrong with the company but if you believe in the company then you should just be buying and holding if this is you all the emotional drama that you're seeing happen in the stock market is just emotional drama think of it like jerry springer it's just drama that's going on but all you want to do is pay attention to the long term and make sure you remember what your goals are we will see another stock market crash this guaranteed crashes have been happening for centuries and they will continue to happen it's a boom and buzz cycle and that's just the way the stock market works so what you want to do is not be scared of a stock market crash you want to understand the system and when the next stock market crash happens that's when you want to come in have some cash ready that way you can come in and buy aggressively where the assets and stocks that you believe in and that you want to own this is why financial education is so important that way you can cut through the noise and really understand what's going on because you have to know what your strategy is you have to know what your goals are and based off of that that's where you can make your investment decisions but it all starts with that basic financial education thank you for watching if you enjoyed this video here's a video on how to build wealth that i think you'll love and why edit download our free stock market investing pdf and as always keep hustling there's 10 places that your money needs to go and these are in no particular order first some of your money needs to keep going back into your mind and developing yourself
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