저자: JamieDimon · 외국인
요약 보기
제이미 다이먼은 주주서한에서 미국 경제가 재정적자와 과거 부양책에 힘입어 견조하나 인플레이션이 예상보다 끈질기고 금리가 높게 유지될 수 있다고 경고. 2024년 재정적자 약 1.06조달러, 양적긴축으로 연 9000억달러 이상 유동성 흡수. 시장은 연착륙 확률 70~80%로 반영하나 연화 가능성은 그보다 낮다고 봄. 최악은 자산가격 하락·실업 증가·고인플레가 동시에 나타나는 스태그플레이션.
다듬은 글
Jamie Diamond just published his annual letter to shareholders where he talked about his concerns about the economy because the United States economy continues to be resilient but it's important to note that the economy is being fueled by large amounts of government deficit spending and past stimulus and this might lead to stickier inflation and higher interest rates than markets expect Jamie Diamond for those of you who don't know is the CEO of the largest bank in America JP Morgan Chase bank now to save you some time there's two things I want you to understand number one is I've already read through and analyzed the entire letter to shareholders but if you want to read it for yourself I will link it for you down in the description in this video I'm going to break down his economic analysis I'm not going to get into what he's talking about in terms of the JP Morgan Chas stock and I'm not going to get into what the company the bank JP Morgan Chase Bank is doing to protect them against these economic risks if you want to read the letter to shareholders it's in the description and the second thing you got to understand is well let's jump right into this analysis because I know your time is valuable and I know you probably got some fresh guac waiting for you somewhere so let's Jump Right In Jamie damond lays the foundation for his letter to shareholders by laying out three things that number one our economy is resilient today because number two it's fueled by deficit spending in the government and past stimulus that is still in our economy today and number three this is going to lead to stickier inflation and higher than expected interest rates and that's exactly what we've been seeing happen right now our latest economic data reports show that our economy is still growing strong and our government is still stimulating the economy through deficit spending which has led to inflation coming in hotter than expected which means that the Federal Reserve Bank is less likely to cut interest rates as soon as many people would have hoped now one of the most interesting Parts about this is the deficit spending and the past stimulus and how that's affecting our economy inflation and interest rates deficit spending means that the United States government spends money they don't have because remember our United States government has one source of income they generate tax dollars from taxpayers like you and me so if the government generates $100 in taxes then you think that they can only spend $100 but that's not how it works for the United States government because the United States government has been spending more money that they bring in that's why they racked up this multi-trillion dollar national debt but this national deficit is how much money did we overspend this year because if the government generates $100 in taxes but then they spend $120 the additional $20 that they spent by financing this money or printing this money through the help of the Federal Bank that additional $20 is the national deficit now the reason why this helps stimulate the economy especially in the short term is because well our economy runs on spending when you go to Chipotle and you buy the Chipotle bowl and you buy the extra guac you are giving money to Chipotle and helps stimulate the Chipotle company it gives Chipotle money to open another store it gives Chipotle money to hire another employee it gives Chipotle money to keep expanding and building their company and so if the government is spending trillions of dollars that they don't have well that still means that they're spending trillions of dollars and this trillions of dollars is going into the economy they're paying people they're paying businesses they're paying contracts whether or not is efficient is a different question but this money is going into the hands of people or businesses somewhere so it keeps the economy moving now there are impacts of this but I'm going to talk about that in just a minute according to our Treasury Department the United States government has a $ 1.06 trillion deficit in 2024 now the thing that's very interesting about this deficit is not that it's the first time we've run a deficit it's that we're running these deficits very large today when our economy is supposedly very strong see it's been very common for our government to run a large deficit when we are in some sort of recession or economic slowdown as a way to stimulate and boost our economy when the 2020 pandemic hit the government ramped up spending to inject money into the economy when the 2008 crash happened the United States government ramped up spending to inject money into the economy when the 2000.com bubble burst the United States government ramped up deficit spend ending to inject money into the economy but today we are in a so-called very strong economy and our government is still stimulating through this deficit spending the deficits today are even larger and occurring in boom times not as a result of a recession and they have been supported by quantitative easing which has never been done before the great financial crisis this brings us to the Natural next question which is if the government is spending all this money isn't that a good thing because that means construction workers are getting jobs and roads are being built and Things Are happening and people are generating money and people have jobs isn't this a good thing and yes it is in the short term but there's also a cost to this because the most expensive kind of money is free money I used to talk about this a lot during the pandemic and more people are starting to understand the meaning of that now but when the government spends money they don't have that also means they have to get this money from somewhere because the government can't just print this money the government has to get this money from somebody like the Federal Reserve Bank you might have heard the Federal Reserve Bank on the news because they're The Entity that's in charge of controlling interest rates but they also have this thing called the money printer the Federal Reserve Bank has the ability to print or create this money and lend it to the United States government now although the Federal Reserve Bank is called the Federal Reserve Bank they're not actually a bank you and I can't go there to deposit money they're not a reserve because they don't sit on any cash reserves and they're not federal they're not a part of the federal government so the Federal Reserve Bank has the ability to create money and lend it to the United States government so now when the United government has this $1 trillion national deficit that means that the United States government is going to inject a trillion dollars into our economy by spending this money by hiring people paying people hiring things building things which is good for those businesses and the people that are getting the money in the short term but the consequence then is that there's a trillion more dollars that have to be created if this money is going to be created by the Federal Reserve Bank now what does that mean in terms of inflation well if you keep increasing the amount of dollars out there that dilutes the value of each individual dollar see many people call inflation the thing that is the reason why prices are more expensive today inflation is that groceries are more expensive but that's actually the byproduct of inflation inflation is actually the increase of our currency inflation is when you increase the amount of dollars out there and the byproduct of this inflation is that the value of each individual dollar goes down the buying power of your salary goes down and that's because our currency or dollars are not backed by physical gold or anything else and so as you print more of these dollars the value of each individual dollar goes down so this deficit spending helps to boost the economy in the short term but then the consequence is that it creates more inflationary issues and you can start to see why that's an issue because on one hand you're hearing about how inflation is such a bad thing and how the Federal Reserve Bank is trying to fight inflation and at the other hand the government is still trying to stimulate the economy through the deficit spending which is making the inflation problem more difficult to solve now this is something that we've been talking about in Market briefs my free financial newsletter but if you have the government that's working to create inflation on one hand while the Federal Reserve Bank is trying to fight inflation you can start to see why inflation is stickier than expected take a look quantitative tightening is draining more than 900 billion dollars in liquidity from our system annually and we have never truly experienced the full effect of quantitative tightening on the scale by the way if you haven't joined Market briefs Yet Market briefs is my free financial newsletter where every day my team is working to break down what's happening in things like the economy the stock market the crypto Market the global economy and the housing market into a fun witty and easy to read newsletter you can read Market briefs in less than 5 minutes every morning and it's completely free so if you haven't joined Market briefs yet I got the link to how you can join down in the description below where you can go to briefs.
market that's briefs. Market but quantitative tightening is where the Federal Reserve Bank is trying to pull money out of our economic system and the best way to understand quantitative tightening is to understand the opposite quantitative easing when we're going through the 20 pandemic you might remember that the government was printing money and sending out money in the form of stimulus checks unemployment checks and big loans to businesses now when the government was giving this money out trillions of dollars they weren't sitting on this pile of cash because remember United States government was already running this large national deficit it was already in national debt so how did the United States government get this trillions of dollars well they borrowed this money from the Federal Reserve Bank more specifically the Federal Reserve Bank created these trillions of dollars out of in there and then they lent it to the United States government and the way the Federal Reserve Bank lent this money to the United States government was by doing something called buying treasuries now I know this can get a little confusing so just stick with me for one minute and I promise it will make a lot more sense a treasury you might have heard people talk about a treasury bond or a treasury note or a treasury bill all these things mean essentially the same thing which is that the United States government needs money so the issue this loan and somebody can then lend their money to the government you can lend your money to the government I can lend my money to the government where the Federal Reserve Bank can lend money to the government now you and I can't print money but the Federal Reserve Bank can print money and then lend it to the government so now when the Federal Reserve Bank was creating these trillions of dollars and lending it to the government by buying treasuries that was called quantitative easing because they were stimulating the economy now what the Federal Reserve Bank is doing to lower inflation is two things number one is they've raised interest rates aggressively and they're keeping interest rates higher and number two is they're doing quantitative tightening meaning they're now trying to reduce the amount of dollars in circulation the way that the Federal Reserve Bank is doing that is through quantitative tightening which is by selling off some of these treasuries because now remember the bettered Reserve Bank created trillions of dollars to now lend money to the government in the form of buying treasuries now in order to help alleviate this inflation pain what are they doing well they've raised interest rates and now they're trying to sell off these treasuries as a way to reduce and remove some of these dollars from our economic system because they're trying to reverse the quantitative easing that they did before and this is where Jamie Diamond says that we've never really experienced the impact of this scale of quantitative tightening and he says that we are going to have impacts of this quantitative tightening but we haven't really felt that yet according to Jamie Diamond the market seem to be pricing in at a 70 to 80% chance of a soft Landing I believe the odds are a lot lower than that in other words Wall Street believes that the Federal Reserve Bank is going to be able to raise interest rates like they've been doing and do this quantitative tightening to do number one reduce inflation but number two not causing a recession that's what a soft Landing is that we can reduce the inflation problem without causing a recession 70 to 80% of Wall Street the markets believe that the Federal Reserve Bank and the government will be able to reduce the inflation problem without tipping the economy into a recession this where Jamie Diamond says that he thinks the probability of us being able to reduce inflation and not because of recession are a lot lower than that or in simple terms Jamie Diamond says that a lot of people are underestimating the probability of a recession in the United States and the reason why Jamie Diamond is concerned about a recession is because we have high levels of debt we have fiscal stimulus we have ongoing deficit spending and the unknown effects of quantitative tightening which I'm more worried about than most people so we know that inflation has consequences we're kind of seeing the impact of that now because everything is so much more expensive and the average person has not made more money in order to keep up with the high inflation which means the average person has to pay a bigger chunk of their income to afford their rent to afford their groceries and to afford their car which means that the average person has less money left over to go out and spend somewhere else let alone save and invest their money and so now when you have this inflation issue then you have this Federal Reserve Bank that's working to bring the inflation down through quantitative tightening and the higher interest rates and we haven't seen the impacts of this level of quantitative tightening before which has risks on the economy and then on the same same time you also have the government that's still doing this deficit spending which is making the inflation problem stickier and this is what he's saying is you have all these problems happening at the same time and that's why he's more worried about this recession and the fact that inflation might be around longer than expected because we're still seeing this deficit spending happen take a look there seems to be a large number of persistent inflationary pressures which may likely continue in other words it doesn't look like the government is going to slow down their spending anytime soon and this is where then Jamie Diamond says that the worst case scenario would be stagflation which would not only come with higher interest rates but also with higher credit losses lower business volumes and more difficult markets in other words the worst case scenario the worst type of recession would be the stagflation situation which is where you have falling asset prices the stock market is crashing relas prices are falling while number two you have people losing their jobs while number three you still have this High inflation the prices of things keep getting more expensive while unemployment is rising and number four interest rates have to continue to stay high to bring the inflation issues down that according to Jamie Diamond is the worst case scenario now of course there's always a spectrum of what a recession can look like but the key here for you is to understand that number one no one can predict what's going to happen in the economy tomorrow and number two that you want to be able to protect yourself no matter what I mean we know that in our economy recessions happen we've seen a recession pretty much every decade for the last century it's a part of our economic system booms and busts happen and in addition to that we also know that more millionaires are made during recessions than any other time because recessions and Market crashes create opportunities for financially Savvy investors to buy Investments at a discounted price but in order for you to do that you need to be financially educated and you need to be prepared that means you need to be educated enough to know what is a good investment and how should you go out and buy and you need to be prepared which means you need to have cash to fall back on to protect you and you also need cash to be able to capitalize on investment opportunities meaning if you see a good investment opportunity you need the money to go out and be able to buy it and that means you want to be preparing when times are good and I know that can be tough during a time where you have this High inflation but it's so important for you to get smart because it's not going to get easier 5 years from now and it's not going to get easier 15 years from now so it's better for you to start making those sacrifices today that way you can look back 5 or 10 or 15 years from now and say I'm so glad I made those sacrifices back then that way I can capitalize an opportunities in the future and of course we're going to be keeping you updated and Market briefs which is why if you haven't joined yet make sure you do that the Social Security fund in the United States is running out of money and they have come out and said that if changes are not made by 2034 they will have to start cutting their payments the way the Social Security fund gets money is every time you go to work to get paid some of a paycheck is taken out and put into the Social Security fund and this tax the Social Security tax is separate from your income tax
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