저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
연준 저금리와 정부 보증(예금·학자금대출)이 금융기관과 소비자의 무분별한 대출을 키운다고 주장. 신용카드 연체 확대의 도덕적 해이, 학자금 대출이 대학 등록금을 끌어올린 구조, 닉슨의 금본위제 폐지가 70년대 인플레를 낳았고 달러 기축 이탈로 향후 10년 더 큰 인플레가 온다고 경고.
다듬은 글
how do you force the consumer and government simultaneously to stop spending when they've got this complete willingness how do you disent them enough if the Federal Reserve allowed interest rates to rise to where the the market would place them credit card uh uh lending would stop the banks would not be extending the credit they couldn't afford it uh you know they just there' just be no profit in the business uh there's only profit because they could still borrow at 5 or 6% from the fed and loan to Consumers at 21% and there's enough margin in there to you know eat up what they make for delinquencies make a good business if interest rates went up to 10 12% know they they couldn't and the other thing is remember all these can I interrupt you was that the argument you made at the end of the financial crisis you made a prediction about credit cards that would also happen in ' 0809 that didn't actually happen but was it were you basing it would have happened but the the government bailed everybody out but you're making that same point I'm saying well it should look uh mate the the government has has um undermined the finan system with its subsidies and guarantees right all the bank deposits are guaranteed by the government uh the banks do all sorts of Reckless things because of the government that they never would do in a free market uh and artificially low interest rates are are a big part of that but there are other things that the government does uh that distort the markets and that lead to excess uh consumption remember we have this phony economy that's based 70% on consumer spending and consumers can only spend if they can keep borrowing and so they're facilitating that and you know one of the one of the really dangerous things with these credit cards and i' been I've been talking about this is you know once you have so much credit card debt that you know you can never pay it back once you realize that you can't pay it back your incentive is just to keep running it up even higher because you know you're just going to go bankrupt and and so you might as well go out with a bang so if I owe 100 Grand I might as well owe 200 Grand because I'm spending money that I know I'm never going to pay back which is a more hazard in it of itself because now I want to start buying as much stuff as I can on credit because I know after I go bankrupt I won't be able to buy anything so I might as well buy because when you go bankrupt with a credit card debt they don't go and repossess all the stuff that you bought you get to keep everything you bought right the credit card debt isn't secured by all the merchandise that you bought or the vacations that you took uh so you know it's free money uh as far as a lot of people are concerned so the moral hazard there uh is enormous as people are running up debt and they did the same thing with student loans and now it's even worse I mean the government the reason that college is so expensive is because the government guaranteed student loans you know before the government started doing that college was cheap even Ivy lead colleges weren't that expensive and they never really raised prices I mean you can go back in time you know maybe every 50 years Harvard would raise his price a little bit or Yale would raise his price but you know the price would be the same for decades but what happened in the 1960s late 1960s they lowered the voting age from 21 to 18 well 18 is when you start college so now all the politicians started to try to buy the votes of the students by promising government Aid guaranteed student loans because like in my dad's generation uh you know he worked as a wa let meish they lowered they lowered this is a very important Point you're making they lowered voting age from 1960 no 21 pass they passed what the the was what amendment lowered the voting age uh 21st Amendment or but they lowered the vote no they lowered the voting age from 21 to 18 right and so um now politicians wanted to get 18-year-olds to vote for them and they're going to college so they said hey we're going to make it easier my dad and all of his friends who didn't have a lot of money my you know my my grandparents were you know lower middle class um so my dad worked his way through college she had a summer job waiting tables and that was common people worked their way through college and then they graduated with no well what the politicians told the kids is why should you have to work over the summer you're young go to the beach travel around Europe we we'll we'll guarantee loans we'll get Banks to loan you money so that you can go to college and then you'll pay back the loans after you graduate when you have a good job and have a high salary and so the students loved it they voted for the politicians Who provided it but the real winners were the colleges because the minute the colleges saw that students had access their customers to all this government money money they started jacking up prices and then as they raised prices the government kept raising the loan limits that they would guarantee and then and it was just a spiral and so College costs went through the roof because of government subsidies now they it's even worse because now they want to forgive the student loans and so now the message they're sending to students is borrow as much as you possibly can because you're never going to have to pay it back and the collegers are like this is fantastic we could really Jack our prices up now because no one gives a damn what we charge because no one's going to have to pay I mean pretty soon they might give you a free car when you enroll in a college I mean doesn't matter because no one's going to have to pay uh the debt off it's just going to be so it's it's it's even worse moral hazard you know now you see these liberal I mean these left-wing politicians complaining about all the student debt it's their fault if it wasn't for the government college would be cheap and nobody would have borrowed any money they enriched the universities they enriched the bureau racies there at the expense of the students of their parents uh but you know now they've made it work but they corrupt the government corrupts everything they get involved in Peter what made Nixon eventually sign off on this thinking this is a good idea well remember first of all he thought it was temporary he really did uh and in fact he said that in his initial speech there two things he did that he thought was temporary one is a gold standard the other one is this well let me tell you so look Nixon TR de he tried devaluation twice so he devalued the dollar officially twice and he raised the price of gold from $35 an ounce up to about 42 or whatever it is it's an odd number but Nixon had a real difficult choice to make and unfortunately he took the politically expedient one what he could have done because gold uh prices needed to rise so he could have devalued the dollar officially by a much greater amount which would have been uh very embarrassing for him to do uh or he could have allowed the economy to deflate allowed prices to come down so that the gold price didn't have to go up but a massive deflation would have been you know a very difficult thing right because we we had printed all this money to fight the Vietnam War to go to the moon the war on poverty so we either needed to devalue the dollar or have deflation and a depression and so Nixon didn't want to do either of those and so he took the third option which was you know I'm going to basically just go off the gold standard completely uh and so he didn't have to make one of those two choices but I think he opted for something even worse which ushered in all the inflation I mean we had all that inflation in 1970s for a reason it's not an accident that we went off the gold standard in 71 and then we had a decade of massive inflation and now we're going to have a decade of even more inflation as the world goes off the dollar standard
Comments 0