저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 그랜섬은 연준을 신뢰하지 말아야 하며, 2024년까지 깊은 경기침체와 주가 하락이 올 수 있고 인플레이션은 예상보다 오래 높게 머문다고 봄. 연준 평가: 연준은 2021년 인플레이션을 일시적이라 했고 2005년 주택 거품도 없다고 했으나 틀렸음. 연준은 자산가격 상승은 공으로 가져가고 붕괴 시에는 책임을 회피한다고 비판. 경기침체 전망: 연준은 최근 침체 가능성을 낮췄지만 그랜섬은 금리 인상이 부동산 시장을 억누르는 지연 효과로 2024년에 침체가 올 것으로 봄. 침체 위험 요인으로 빠른 금리인상, 중국·러시아 등 대외 이슈, 에버그란데 파산의 금융권 영향, 소비자 부채·저축 소진, 10월 학자금 상환 재개를 제시. 인플레이션 전망: 인플레이션이 과거 10년 평균보다 낮아지기 어렵고 중간 정도의 고인플레와 고금리 국면에 재진입했다고 봄. 인플레는 소비자에게 불리하고 자산 보유자에게 유리함. 금리와 자산가격: 저금리는 자산가격을 올리고 고금리는 내린다는 단순한 논리를 제시. 고금리 아래 부동산 매도자와 매수자 간 가격 괴리로 거래가 정체되고 있음. 연준 전망: 연준은 추가 인상 가능성을 언급하지만 경기 고통이 커지면 인플레보다 경기를 우선할 수 있고, 2024년이 선거연도라 정치적 고려가 작용할 수 있다고 봄. 진행자 메시지: 그랜섬 발언을 소개하며 시장 브리핑 뉴스레터와 투자 서밋을 홍보. 2023년에는 트럭 할부 등 신규 대출을 피하고 재무를 점검하라고 권고. 리스크: 예측 시점 정확도는 불확실하다고 진행자가 명시함.
다듬은 글
billionaire investor Jeremy Grantham just did an interview with Bloomberg where he said three things number one do not trust the Federal Reserve Bank number two we will likely see a recession running deep into 2024 and number three the inflation will probably be around longer than what most people expect he started off saying that essentially the Federal Reserve Bank has a great track record for being right he was being sarcastic take a look yeah I think the feds record on these things is wonderful it's a almost guaranteed to be wrong now to give you an idea of how the Federal Reserve Bank has been wrong in the past just remember that the Federal Reserve Bank said inflation was transitory back in 2021 and they also said that there was no housing bubble back in 2005.
and this is where Jeremy Grantham says the federal Israel bank is the cause of these bubbles the Federal Reserve Bank then takes credit when asset prices are booming and then with the bubble burst and as the prices fall that's the better Reserve Bank turns a blind eye and they don't take any of the blame take a listen they prided themselves in in stimulating the bubbles they took credit for the beneficial effect of of higher asset prices on the economy they have never claimed credit for the deflationary effect of asset prices breaking and they always do in other words after you see a Slowdown in the economy that's when the Federal Reserve Bank starts to stimulate the economy they cut interest rates they print money that's when you see the economy grow and that's when you see asset prices rise this is when the Federal Reserve Bank will then take credit for the growing economy and then you start to see all this debt enter the economy all this money enter asset classes because people get greedy and that's when the bubble forms and that's when the Federal Reserve Bank takes credit for the growing asset prices because when you have a bubble people are making money as the bubble is forming and then when the bubble bursts that's when people lose money and that's where the Federal Reserve Bank starts pointing fingers as to all the other causes of the bubble being burst versus Jerry mcgrantham is saying that the Federal Reserve Bank is the cause of the bubbles in the first place this brings us to the topic of a recession because the Federal Reserve Bank came out just a few weeks ago and they said that they no longer believe that the United States economy is going to enter a recession but this is where Jeremy Grantham doesn't agree with the better Reserve Bank the power of interest rates rising and depressing the real estate market very negative slow-moving influence I I suspect that they will once again Dominate and we will have a recession running perhaps deep into next year and and an accompanying decline in stock prices now we've been covering this topic pretty deeply in Market briefs Market briefs is my free financial newsletter if you have not joined Market briefs yet it's completely free to join it's a free financial newsletter where every day my team's working the breakdown what's happening in the top finance and business news you can read it less than five minutes every morning so if you have not joined Market briefs yet I got the link to how you can join down in the description below and you can also go to briefs.co market if you want to join but the reason why Jeremy Grant them and many other economists and investors are saying that the United States has a lot of red flags which could indicate a recession coming are number one how fast the Federal Reserve Bank has increased interest rates especially after all of the quantitative easing the money Printing and the zero percent interest rates for so long number two and I have all these issues internationally popping up things with China things with Russia which will then impact the United States I mean even with the ever Grant bankruptcy that bankruptcy does affect the United States because a lot of Institutions and Banks here in the United States are holding on to that debt and then number three is the consumer crisis which is essentially inflation has caused the prices of things to rise so much the people are struggling paying for things and not just that now in October we're going to see student loan payments restart again which is going to slap a lot of Americans with a new payment when they're already struggling financially and so this is where a lot of people are saying well people are already struggling to survive and if you're going to have to pay another student loan payment on top of that that's going to hurt consumer spending and if people don't have the ability to spend and they can no longer go deeper into debt which will eventually happen because people are starting to use up their home equity people are starting to go deep into the credit card debt they're starting to dig into their savings they're even digging into the 401ks eventually people will get tapped out so this is where Jeremy Grant them is saying yeah maybe we won't see a recession this year but into 2024 that's where he says that a recession will hit now of course nobody can perfectly predict when a recession will happen so I want you to take that with a grain of salt but understand the risk factors that are out there in the economy right now and this brings us to the third topic that Jeremy Grantham talked about which was inflation where Jeremy Grantham says that inflation is going to be around longer and higher than what most people expect and this comes at a time where now the Federal Reserve Bank has just come out and said that it looks like we have still a uphill battle on inflation because there's still upside risk on inflation so the FED might have to be more aggressive to bring inflation down take a look at what Jeremy grantum had to say I suspect inflation will never be as low as it average for the last 10 years that we have re-entered a period of of moderately higher inflation and therefore moderately higher interest rates inflation eats away at the consumer's buying power I went deep into how inflation affects the regular person in my investor Summit if you have not seen my investor Summit I'll link it for you down in the description but what inflation does is it disproportionately hurts the consumer while disproportionately benefiting the investor and a business owner now most Americans are only consumers everybody is a consumer rich people poor people middle class people are consumers we all have to buy things but most Americans are only consumers most Americans are not business creators most Americans are not investors so when you have inflation happen that hurts consumers because now you have to spend more money to buy our groceries and your plane tickets in your home and everything in between but the asset owners are the ones that are benefiting now what we've seen happen especially over the last few years is we saw this huge run up in inflation now we're not seeing inflation go negative we're trying to see inflation go lower the better Reserve Bank wants to see inflation cool down to around two percent but that doesn't mean that the prices of things are going to fall and until we get inflation down to two percent it's still above where the Federal Reserve Bank wants it to be so right now we have higher than expected inflation which means the prices of things are still Rising faster with the Federal Reserve Bank wants which means the prices of things are still Rising faster than what most people's incomes are rising so with the last few years the prices of things have risen drastically for most Americans the price of things have risen way faster than wages and even today the price of things are still Rising faster than a lot of people's wages maybe not as fast as it was before but it's still quickly so now the Federal Reserve Bank wants to cool inflation down which means they want the price of things to not rise as quickly but until that happens it's still Rising faster than most people's incomes and who does that hurt it hurts the financially uneducated and most Americans unfortunately are still financially uneducated which means this inflation problem if it stays around longer than expected even the Federal Reserve Bank now is saying that there could be more upside risk to inflation well that's going to continue to hurt the average person which is why it then hurts the consumer side of the economy because if you keep having to pay more for your groceries and your airline tickets then your rent then you have less money to go out and spend other places which hurts spending ability which hurts the growth of the economy and this is where now Jeremy Grantham talks about how interest rates play a factor in our economy and he says it's pretty simple to understand take a look in the end life is simple low rates push-up asset prices higher rates push asset prices down the Federal Reserve Bank is our Central Bank here in the United States and they have the ability to influence our monetary system our money system one of the ways that they can do that is by adjusting interest rates when we are in a slower economy a cooler economy a recession that's when the Federal Reserve Bank wants to stimulate spending and how do they encourage people to spend they make debt cheaper so the Federal Reserve Bank when you're in a slow economy will cut interest rates to encourage people to spend that's why when mortgage rates or interest rates were at zero percent a couple years ago everybody was spending money people wanted to go and buy a home people were buying cars people were spending money because now they felt like it was so cheap to do so and when you go out and you buy a home and you go and you buy a car it's not just the Auto industry and the real estate industry that benefits because when you go out and you buy a car or a house the realtor makes money the car salesperson makes money and the owners of those brokerages or dealerships make money now the realtor has more money to go out and spend they're going to go out and buy a watch they're going to go out and buy other things same with the dealership person so as for money gets spent it trickles down to other parts of the economy and that's where now interest rates play such a big factor factor in spending but then also impacts asset prices because when you raise interest rates when mortgage rates go up or interest rates go up to eight percent if you want to borrow money to buy an investment property it's going to be very hard for you to make any money on a real estate investment deal unless you're making more than eight percent return on their rental property and today people who own let's say an apartment complex they don't want to sell their deal for a 10 return because that means I'm going to have to lower the price of my apartment complex I'm gonna have to sell it for a discount I don't want to do that and currently today there's such a low inventory of real estate for sale not just housing but also commercial real estate that you have this kind of big dilemma between sellers and buyers sellers don't want to sell it at a discount and buyers don't want to pay the inflated prices so inventory isn't really moving now you have some buyers there that have a lot of cash still that are saying all right you know what forget it I'll pay the inflated price I'm willing to do that but that's the Dilemma that we're seeing right now where when you raise interest rates that generally brings asset prices lower and what has happened over the last 18 months we have raised interest rates to the highest levels in more than two decades this is where the Federal Reserve Bank is still saying we might have to raise interest rates even more how long will this stay high but we don't know but the likelihood is that if we start to see more pain in the economy then the FED might say you know what we don't got to worry that much about inflation let's take care of the economic issue because well next year is an election year and the Federal Reserve Bank also doesn't want to be the one that's getting blamed when the economy is hurting it's more of a practical thing rather than a logical or realistic thing so this is where again you want to understand different points of views you want to understand what's going on in the economy and this is why you want to get financially smart remember 2023 is not the year for you to go out and finance a new truck this is the year for you to get financially smart
Comments 0