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제이미 다이먼(JP모건 CEO)의 2023년 10월 블룸버그 인터뷰 경고를 소개하는 영상이다. 결론은 미국 경제가 재정적자 확대와 양적긴축(QT), 고금리 장기화로 스태그플레이션 위험에 노출돼 있으니 대비가 필요하다는 것이다. 재정적자 부분: 2022년 연방정부 세입 4.9조달러, 지출 6.2조달러로 재정적자 약 1.38조달러. 2023년에는 1.5~2조달러 적자가 예상되며, 2001년 흑자 기조와 대비된다. 양적긴축 부분: 연준이 국채를 매각해 대차대조표를 축소하는 QT가 진행 중이며, 다이먼은 평시 최대 규모 재정지출과 QT가 겹친 전례가 없어 영향을 장담할 수 없다고 봤다. 연준은 향후 양적완화 여력 확보 목적이라고 설명된다. 금리 부분: 다이먼은 연방기금금리 7%도 놀랍지 않다고 언급했다. 현재 기준금리는 약 5.25% 수준이며, 주택담보·신용카드·자동차 대출 금리에 영향을 준다. 고금리는 소비 위축을 통해 성장을 둔화시킨다. 스태그플레이션 시나리오: 높은 실업률, 높은 인플레이션, 둔화된 경제가 동시에 나타나는 최악의 경우로 제시되며, 다이먼은 이를 최악 시나리오로 봤다. 대응 조언: 현금 비상자금 마련, 금융 교육 강화, 2023년은 고가 차량 할부 대신 재무 관리를 할 시기라는 권고. 영상 말미에는 US News가 선정한 배당 ETF 7종(첫 번째 SCHD, 연 배당률 약 3.6%)을 소개하며 자체 실사를 당부한다. 전반적으로 특정 자산의 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 예측은 없고, 거시 리스크 경고와 방어적 자산 배분 메시지가 중심이다.
다듬은 글
Jamie Diamond recently put out a warning about what might be coming in our economy in the near future if you don't know Jamie Diamond is the CEO of JP Morgan Chase Bank which is the largest bank in the United States and in October he did an interview with Bloomberg where he talked about artificial intelligence interest rates and what's coming in the economy there are two main things that Jamie Diamond says that you should prepare for number one is the impacts of quantitative tightening and number two is potentially higher interest rates and the impacts of higher interest rates let's start by talking about quantitative tightening and the impacts of that so one is the fiscal money being spent is so big largest in uh peace time ever America and kind of around the world with already very high deficits and QT we've never had so I know some people think QT will be uneventful I'm not so sure to understand what he's talking about let's define two terms fiscal deficit and quantitative tightening a fiscal deficit is when the government in this case the United States government spends more money than what they they generate through taxes this is a chart from the treasury Department which shows the United States fiscal deficit in 2022 and what you'll see is that in 2022 the government generated $4.9 trillion in revenue from taxes and then they spent 6.2 trillion how do they finance the spending well that is the fiscal deficit of $1.38 trillion now while it might seem normal for the government to spend more money than they generate through taxes it wasn't always that case like in the early 000s the United States government was actually running a surplus and it was kind of interesting news in 2001 when the government ran a surplus because it was considered a smaller Surplus than expected but the concern that Jamie Diamond is highlighting is the continuing and growing fiscal deficit it's estimated that we will see somewhere between a $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion fiscal deficit in 2023 now here's the thing the government has to get their money from somewhere so if they don't have enough money coming in from taxes they still have to finance this additional spending somehow the question is where do they get this money and the way that they get this money is by borrowing this money and one place that they can borrow this money is through the Federal Reserve Bank who has the ability to print money essentially the Federal Reserve Bank is a central bank in the United States and so when they print money money gets created out of thin air they give it to the government and then the government spends this money and this has an inflationary impact now as you know we're already facing High inflation in the United States and that's kind of causing some of the more inflationary problems this brings me to number two which is quantitative tightening quantitative tightening is now when the Federal Reserve Bank is working to reduce some of their balance sheet now the question is what does that mean and it's easier if you start by understanding what is quantitative easing which is the opposite of quantitative tightening when the government wants to spend more and more money the federal bank then has to print that money and give it to the government but they don't just hand the government this money they lend this money to to the government what that means is that the Federal Reserve Bank is buying treasuries from the government in other words the Federal Reserve Bank is lending money to the government and the way they do that is by buying treasuries that the government is offering a treasury is a loan created by the United States government so now when the feder Reserve Bank buys these treasuries they are creating money to do that and this is what quantitative easing is they're increasing the monetary Supply they giving more money to the government and the way that they do that is by lending money to the government by buying treasuries so now when you quantitative tightening happening is the opposite the Federal Reserve Bank is working to reduce their balance sheet meaning sell off some of their assets what are their Assets in this case it's loans like the treasuries that they bought from the government so they're selling off these loans which is called quantitative tightening they're trying to sell off some of these government loans but why would they want to do that let's just go to the Federal Reserve Bank website a final reason for engaging in quantitative tightening is to free up capacity for a future quantitative easing if the Federal Reserve Banks balance sheet were to continue to grow it could in theory run out of treasuries or other acceptable assets to purchase to conduct quantitative easing in the future in other words the Federal Reserve Bank is doing this quantitative tightening they're selling off treasuries in order to prepare for the next economic crisis that way they can then go out and stimulate the economy again because if they create too much money right now and they own too many of these treasuries well they might not be able to stimulate the economy in the future and that could put us into a huge mess because now you could enter a major depression that the Federal Reserve Bank can't even get you out of that's why they're working to do this type of quantitative tightening and this is where Jamie Diamond says I don't know what the impacts of this type of quantitative tightening will be because we've never really seen it happen like this before where not only is the Federal Reserve Bank working to raise interest rates aggressively they're also selling off treasuries and this is during a time where we're seeing a lot of shakiness in the economy this brings me to the second issue that Jamie Diamond talked about which has to do with interest rates and even Rising interest rates now I do want to let you know know that if you are interested in growing your financial education my team at briefs media put together this amazing ebook called how to build wealth as an investor that walks you through the basics from how do you build the mindset of an investor to how do you save your first couple thousand dolls to then how do you invest your money what are different ways that you can invest your money how do you generate cash flow to then how do you spend your money smartly to how do you earn your money smartly to then how do you protect your assets this ebook is packed with value and it's completely free so if you want to read this ebook I got the link to how you can download this ebook for free down in the description below or you can go to briefs.
ebook during the interview Jamie Damon says that he would not be surprised to see 7% interest rates in the United States and that him and his company are prepared for higher interest rates and you might want to consider preparing yourself too now to clarify when Jamie Diamond's talking about 7% interest rates he's not talking about mortgage rates he's talking about the federal funds rate this is the interest rate set by the Federal Reserve Bank and currently at the time we recording this video the federal funds rate is at at around 5 and 1/4% now when the federal funds rate goes higher meaning when the Federal Reserve Bank pushes up the federal funds rate higher that then puts higher pressure on things like mortgage rates and credit card rates and autol loan rates So currently we're seeing interest rates at around 5 and a/ qu% Jamie Diamond says he's not going to be surprised if we see interest rates go up to around 7% which is still quite a bit higher from where we are right now and this is where Jamie Diamond says that not only are most people not ready for interest rates to stay high or even go higher from here but there can be more consequences with higher interest rates such as stagflation take a listen the worst case is stagflation you know higher rates because you have a booming economy and there's a lot of competition for capital is not the same thing as stagflation stagflation means that you have three things happening number one is you have high or Rising unemployment number two is you have high or Rising inflation and number three is that you have a slowing economy like a recession and this is what Jamie Diamond calls is the worst case scenario because anytime you see higher interest rates well that puts downward pressure on the economy because it cools down spending now remember our economy runs on spending the more money you spend the more money somebody else makes and in this economic system it does not matter if you're spending money on your credit card or if you're spending the cash in your bank spending is spending whether it's the money you have or whether it's somebody else's money so now if you raise interest rates what happens spending goes down not because people have less money but because people are less likely to go out and borrow money for example less people are likely to go out and buy a home when interest rates are higher less people are likely to go out and buy a car when interest rates are higher and so if spending starts to slow down that means less growth in the economy however we're still facing High inflation and if the inflation problem doesn't get worse that could push the Federal Reserve Bank to continue raising interest rates that could also push our economy even lower and that could also cause more issues with unemployment well again the inflation problem hasn't gone away and this where Jamie Diamond is saying well it's going to take work to bring this inflation problem down or we don't know how long it's going to actually be to fix this inflation problem but if it doesn't get fixed and we have to keep raising interest rates well now you have the makings of the worst case scenario which is stagflation because now you have a slowing economy you have people that are losing their jobs you have wages that are going down while the prices of things are going up that is the worst case scenario so now how do you protect yourself and what do you do well again this is why Financial education is so important because number one you want to be prepared for anything one of the things that Jamie Diamond highlighted and talked about in this video multiple times is that he's not trying to predict what's going to happen but rather he wants to be prepared for anything and him and his company Chase Bank are prepared for 7% interest rates they're prepared for 8% interest rates if it came down to that and this is where what he says is most people are not prepared most people are hoping that everything is going to turn around be better next year with lower interest rates and a booming economy but what happens if that does not happen because most people do not try to protect themselves and this is where again what does that mean number one we to be prepared build some sort of cash savings for yourself not just to protect you but also to capitalize an opportunities that might come your way because well all types of movement in the economy create opportunities for the financially Savvy and so if you have money then you can capitalize on opportunities that might come your way especially if we see more of an economic slowdown and then number two is work to build the financial education you can have all the money in the world but if you don't know what to do with it it doesn't do you any good you have to start building that Financial education you have free resources on YouTube on podcast on the internet you have the free ebook at briefs media that I talked to you about that you can read down in the description but you have to start investing some time in your financial education and understand yes investing has risks you're never guaranteed to make money but without taking any risk you're never going to actually take any action or learn losing is a part of the process and number three just be smart with their money right now the thing that I keep saying is a 2023 is not the year for you to go out finance a new truck this is the year for you to get financially smart instead of just going out and spending all of your money US News put out this article on what they call the seven best dividend paying ETFs that you can consider buying here are the seven ETFs that they recommend and again investing has risks make sure you always do your own due diligence and never blindly blindly follow a random guy on YouTube number one SCD which is paying out 3.6% a year in dividends V
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