저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
사회보장연금 2.5% 인상은 물가 대비 부족하며 지급이 물가 상승보다 1~2년 늦게 반영된다. 슈링크플레이션·스킴플레이션이 CPI에 충분히 잡히지 않는다. 다이먼(JP모건)은 재정적자·지정학 리스크를 경고. 골드만삭스는 연말 물가가 2% 수준으로 떨어진다고 전망. 결론은 재무 준비, 금융 교육, 트렌드 이해의 중요성.
다듬은 글
Social Security recipients just got a raise, if you want to call it that. The Social Security Administration yesterday came out and said that they want to increase Social Security payments by 2.5% in 2025 to combat inflation and a lot of people were not happy. In addition to that, the second thing I want to talk about today has to do with what Jamie Diamond, the CEO of JP Morgan Chase Bank, had to say about the economy and the geopolitical nature of what's happening in the world.
And the third thing is Goldman Sachs says you don't got to worry about inflation. So I want to break these three things down and let me start by talking about what's going on with social security because the social security administration says that if you rely on social security you deserve a raise.
There are 72.5 million Americans that rely on social security. They will be seeing a 2 and a half% raise in 2025 which amounts to about a $50 a month increase average payment for social security recipients. Now, the reason many people were upset about this is because they believe that this is not keeping up with the real rate of inflation that many people are seeing.
But there's a couple issues here. And let me start by talking about the delayed impact of social security payments. Let me explain. In 2021, the social security payments increased by 1.3%. 2022, they increased by 5.9%. 2023, 8.7%. 2024, 3.2%. And in 2025, it's going to increase by 2.5%. So the first issue that many people like to talk about is that social security has barely been keeping up with inflation if that.
Which means if you're relying on social security and you have a fixed income, well life keeps getting more expensive and many times it's getting more expensive faster than your income from social security. The second issue is that the payments that you get from social security are delayed from inflation.
If you remember, the social security payments in 2022 increased by 5.9%. In 2023, they increased by 8.7%. But in 2022, inflation in the United States peaked out at around 9%. And so, when we saw this high inflation in 2022, Social Security recipients didn't get to see that pay raise until 2023. So, you have to see that inflation happen in the first place.
And then after the inflation happens, that's when you start to see the pay rise in social security the following year. So if you rely on social security, not only are your payments not always keeping up with inflation, but the second issue is you don't get the raise in payments until way after the fact as well.
And then the third factor here is of course the social security increases don't always account for different things that happen with the cost of living. So, of course, we've talked about inflation, but we've also been seeing other things happen sort of like shrinkflation and skimpflation. Shrinkflation is now you pay the same amount of money, but you're just getting less stuff.
So, you're buying a bag of chips, but the bag of chips is smaller. So, you have to buy more chips if you want to have the same amount of chips. I'm not advocating for you to eat chips. I'm just kind of putting it in perspective because we've been seeing this type of shrinkflation for everything. And skimpflation is when companies use cheaper products to sell the same stuff.
So, you want to buy a wool suit. It's $500. Now, that suit is also $500, but it's made out of cotton instead of wool. That's another type of inflation that doesn't always get accounted for in the CPI numbers, which means, hey, you're getting a little bit of a pay raise, but you really need a lot more money to have the same quality of lifestyle that you had before, and that doesn't always show up in the CPI numbers.
This brings me to the second part of the video, which has to do with geopolitics and Jamie Diamond's worries about the economy. Now, we cover all of this in market briefs. Market briefs is my free financial newsletter where every day my team is working to break down what's happening in things like the economy, the stock market, the housing market, crypto, and the global economy into a fun, witty, and easy to read newsletter.
Is read by more than a quarter million investors every morning. So, if you have not joined yet, what are you waiting for? It's completely free. I got the link for you to join Market Brie down in the description below. Jamie Diamond says that some of the biggest concerns he has for the economy today have to do with government debts and issues with geopolitics.
Let me read you a quote from what he said. Quote, "While inflation is slowing and the United States economy remains resilient, several critical issues remain, including large fiscal deficits, meaning large government debts, infrastructure needs, restructuring of trade and remilitar remilitarization of the world.
Can't speak today. While we hope for the best, these events and the prevailing uncertainty demonstrate why we must be prepared for any environment." What does that mean? that we got to be prepared for any sort of shock. If you've been watching my videos, earlier this week I published a video where the Bank of England put out essentially a warning to companies saying be prepared for any sort of economic shock.
And the reason why they were talking about this economic shock was particularly due to shocks in the oil market. Now, obviously, we know that there's a lot of issues in the Middle East. I'm not going to talk about all those issues because I'm not a geopolitical channel. I want to talk about the financial side of things.
But the reason why those issues matter is because when you have conflicts around the world, they can impact the prices of commodities like oil. And this is what Jamie Diamond is talking about. I'll show you. Quote, "We have been closely monitoring the geopolitical situation for some time. And recent events show that conditions are treacherous and getting worse.
Now, obviously, this matters for a lot of humanitarian issues, but I'm going to focus on the financial side, which is energy and oil is used for everything. you you need it to pump gas in your car, which is what most people think about, but it really impacts the prices of everything because if you want to ship wheat from a farm to a bread producer, a truck has to transport that wheat and the truck needs energy to transport that wheat.
And then when you take that bread from the distributor to a warehouse or to a store like Walmart or Costco, you need more money to do that as well. And so as you start to see the energy costs go up, that can impact the prices of everything from your gas to your bread to your bananas to really everything because energy costs impact the prices of everything.
That's why you want to pay attention to this because of course there's humanitarian issues, but also because of how this can impact the prices of things. Now, what's going to happen? Of course, nobody knows, but this is why you want to pay attention to what's happening in the markets. But Goldman Sachs says you don't really have much to worry about.
Which brings me to the third part of the video that I wanted to highlight because Goldman Sachs also put out their own report where they said don't worry about the CPI data. Earlier this week, we got the latest CPI inflation numbers which said that inflation came in slightly hotter than expected but Goldman Sachs said that they ran their own numbers and according to them but by the end of September inflation has fallen to essentially 2%.
which means that inflation according to Goldman Sachs is no longer a concern and they said that this is good news for the economy and that this is good news for the stock market because it means that the Federal Reserve Bank will have more fuel to continue cutting interest rates more aggressively. Now, of course, this comes at an interesting time because just a few days ago we got the inflation report which came in slightly hotter than expected.
We also got a job market report which said the job market came in a little bit weaker than expected. And that then created a mix of headlines for everyone saying what is the Federal Reserve Bank going to do now? Because the Federal Reserve Bank has been banking on the job market being strong and they've been banking on inflation falling.
That way they can continue cutting interest rates. Now for the Federal Reserve Bank, the job market being weaker is okay so long as inflation is falling. But a lot of people are now concerned that maybe inflation is not falling. Maybe inflation will get worse. And if inflation gets worse, what is that going to mean?
Are they going to continue cutting interest rates? Because if you cut interest rates during a time where inflation is still a problem, that could make the inflation problem worse and put us into a deeper economic mess. Now, of course, nobody knows what's going to happen. But what does this mean for you?
It's the same thing I say every single day. Be a financially sophisticated investor. What does that mean? You got to do three things. Number one, you got to be financially prepared. Number two, you got to be financially educated. Number three, you got to understand the financial trends. When it comes to being financially prepared, what does that mean?
Build a system. Have some cash savings to protect you. Have savings to be able to capitalize on investments and get rid of your credit card debt. If you got credit card debt, don't worry about what's happening in the stock market. Just pay off the credit card debt first because the stock market, you want to see a 10% return a year.
That will be considered a good return. If you have credit card debt, you're paying 15, 20 to 25% a year in interest. So, pay off the credit card debt first. What does financially educated mean? Just means learn how to invest. Learn how to analyze an investment. Learn how to read a stock chart. Learn how to read a financial statement.
Learn how to underwrite a real estate deal. Learn how to actually analyze an investment and find good investments and find an investment strategy for you. Are you going to be a dollar cost average investor that's going to be just passively putting your money into the markets? Or do you want to look for good opportunities by investing in individual companies?
Your strategy is going to depend on what's right for you. But you got to understand how to analyze your investments. Of course, investing has risks. You're never guaranteed to make money when you invest. In fact, you will lose money at some point, which is why you want to always do your own due diligence and never blindly trust a random guy on YouTube, but you want to be investing in your education when times are okay, so you can find good opportunities when times are not okay.
Because the reality is uncertainty creates opportunities for those that are financially educated. And then the third part to all of this is to understand the financial trends. I've talked about this countless times. So, but understanding the financial trends is all about understanding where shifts are happening in the economy so you can capitalize on those because as you see money shift in the economy, you can then come in and invest in those shifts.
If you can see an opportunity, you want to be one of the people that can invest in those opportunities. That way, you can capitalize on the changes that are happening in the economy. But this all comes back to your financial education and how you are investing in your own financial education. And with that, I'll see you on YouTube tomorrow and we'll keep you posted on market briefs.
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