저자: BillAckman · 외국인
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과거 Chipotle와 Universal Music 같은 독점적 해자와 예측 가능한 현금흐름을 가진 기업을 가치투자로 매수하는 원칙을 설명. 주가가 가치 대비 크게 할인될 때 매수하며, 최근 Alphabet을 AI 우려로 15배 PER까지 떨어진 상태에서 긍정적으로 평가. 특정 자산의 1~3개월 방향 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
the lion shows up and everyone starts running you run with them that does not work well in markets in fact you generally have to do the opposite in your lecture on the basics of finance and investing you mentioned a book intelligent investor by Benjamin Graham as being formative in your life what key lesson do you take away from that book that informs your own investing sure actually it was the first investment book I read and as such it was kind of the inspiration for my career and a lot of my life important Book bear in mind this is sort of after the Great Depression people lost confidence in investing in markets World War II and then he writes his book it's for like the average man and basically he says that you have to understand the difference between price and value price is what you pay value is what you get stock market is here to serve you and it's a bit like the neighbor that comes by every day and makes you an offer for your house makes you a stupid offer you ignore it makes you a great offer you can take it and that's the stock market and the key is to figure out what something's worth and you have to kind of weigh it the stock market in the short term is a voting machine it represents speculative interests you know supply and demand of people in the short term ter but in the long term the stock market's a weighing machine you much more accurate it's going to tell you what something's worth and so if you can Define what something's worth then you can really take advantage of the market because it's really here to to help you and that's kind of the message of the book in that same way there's a kind of difference between speculation and investing yeah speculation is just a bit like buying trading crypto short-term trading crypto maybe in the long run there's intrinsic value but many investors in a bubble going into crash were really just pure speculators they didn't know what things were worth they just knew they they were going up right that's speculation and investing is you know doing your homework digging down understanding a business understanding the competitive dynamics of an industry understanding what Management's going to do understanding what price you're going to pay you know the value of anything I would say other than love let's say is the present value of the cash you can take out of it over its life now some people think about love that way but it's not it's not the right way to think about love investing is about basically building a model of what this business is going to produce over its lifetime how do you get to the value of a thing on the stock Market sure companies the value of a security is the present value of the cash you can take out of it over its life so if you think about a bond your bond pays a 5% coupon interest rate you get that let's say every year or twice a year split and half and it's very predictable and if it's a US Government Bond you know you're going to get it so that's a pretty easy thing to value a stock is an interest in a business it's like owning a piece of a company and a business a profitable one is like a bond and that it generates these coupons or these earnings or cash flow you know every year the difference with a stock and a bond is that the bond it's a contract you know what you're going to get as long as they don't go bankrupt in default with a stock you have to make predictions about the business you know how many widgets are going to sell this year how many going to sell next year what are the costs going to be how much of the money that they generate do they need to reinvest in the business to keep the business going and that's more complicated but what we do is we try to find businesses where with a very high degree of confidence we know what those cash flows are going to be for a very long time and there very few businesses that you can have a really high degree of certainty about and as a result you know many Investments are speculation cuz it's really very difficult to predict what I do for a living is find those rare companies that you can kind of predict what they're going to look like over a very long period of time what are the factors that indicate that a company is going to be something that's going to make a lot of money it's going to have a lot of value and it's going to be reliable over a long period of time every consumer has a view on different brands and different companies you know what we look for are sort of these non-disruptive businesses a business where you can kind of close your eyes stock market shuts for a decade and you know that 10 years from now it's going to be a more valuable more profitable company so we own a business called Universal Music Group it's in the business of helping artists become Global artists that's recorded music business and it's in the business of owning music publishing rights of songwriters I think music is forever right music is a many thousand year old part of the human experience and I think it will be you know thousands of years from now and so that's a pretty good backdrop to invest in a company and the company basically owns a third of the global recorded music the most dominant sort of market share in the business through the best at taking an artist who's 18 years old who's got a great voice and helping that artist become a superstar and that's a unique talent and the result is the best artists in the world want to come work for them but they also have this incredible library of you know the Beatles the Rolling Stone YouTu Etc and then if you think about what music has become used to be about records and CDs and eight track tapes and it was about a new format and that's how they drive sales and it's become a business about streaming and streaming is a lot more predictable than selling records right you can sort of say okay how many people have smartphones how many people going to have smartphones next year there's a kind of global penetration over time of smartphones if you pay call it 10 11 bucks a month for a subscription or last for a family plan and you can kind of build a model of what the world looks like and predict the growth of the streaming business predict what kind of Market sh Universal is going to have over time you can't get to a precise view of value you can get to an approximation and the key is to buy at a price that represents a big discount to that approximation and that gets back to Ben Graham Ben Graham was about what he called invented this concept of margin of safety right you want to buy a company at a price that if you're wrong about what you think it's worth and it turns out to be worth 30% less you paid a deep enough discount to your estimate that you're still okay investing a big part of investing is not losing money if you can avoid losing money and then have a few great hits you can do very very well over time there are all kinds of risks in every business this is one that I think has a very high degree of persistence and I can't Envision a world where Beyond streaming in a sense now you may have a neuralink chip in your head instead of a phone but the music is going to come in a digitized kind of format you're going to want to have an infinite library that you can walk around in your pocket or in your brain it's not going to matter that much if the form factor you know the device changes it's not really that important whether it's Spotify or apple or Amazon that are providers I think the values really going to reside in the content owners and that's really the artists and the label that's sort of one example another example could be just you know the restaurant industry you look at businesses like a McDonald's right whatever the company's like a 1950 vintage business and here we are it's you know 75 years later and you can kind of predict what it's going to look like over time and the menu is going to you adjust over time to Consumer tastes and I think the hamburger and fries is probably Forever The Beetles The Rolling Stones the hamburger and fries are forever what's the actual process you go through the process of figuring out what the value of a company is like how do you do the research so Chipotle What attracted us initially is the stock price dropped by about 50% great company great concept athletes love it consumers love it healthy sustainable fresh food made in front of your eyes But ultimately the company's lacking some of the systems and had a food safety issue consumers got sick almost killed the rent but the reality of the fast food quick service industry is almost every fast food company has had a food safety issue over time and the vast majority have survived and we said look such a great concept but their approach was far from ideal we start with usually reading the SEC violing companies file a 10K or an annual report they file these quarterly reports called 10 Q's they have a proxy statement which describes kind of the governance the board structure conference call transcript are publicly available it's kind of very helpful to go back 5 years and kind of learn the story you know here's how management describes their business here's what they say they're going to do and you can follow along to see what they do it's like a historical record of how competent and truthful they are it's a very useful device and then of course looking at competitors and thinking about what could dislodge this company if it's an industry we don't know well we know the restaurant industry really well music industry you know we'll talk to people in the industry we'll try to understand the difference between publishing and recorded music we'll look at the competitive there's we'll read books I read a book about the music industry or a couple books about the industry it's a bit like a big research project and these so-called expert networks now and you can get pretty much anyone on the phone and they'll talk to you about an aspect of the industry that you don't understand want to learn more about try to get a sense you know public filings of companies generally give you a lot of information but not everything you want to know and you can learn more by talking to experts about some of the industry Dynamics the personalities you want to get a sense of management I like watching podcasts if a CEO were to do a podcast or YouTube interview you get a sense of the people the kind of business we're looking for is kind of business everyone should be looking for right a great business it's got a long-term trajectory of growth even beyond the foreseeable distance right those are the kind of businesses you want to own you want businesses that generate a lot of cash you want businesses you can easily understand you want businesses with these sort of huge barers entry where it's difficult for others to compete you want companies that don't have to constantly raise capital and these are some of the great business of the world but people have figured out that those are the great businesses so the problem is those companies tend to have very high stock prices and the value is generally built into the price you have to pay for the business so we can't earn the kind of returns we want to earn for investors by paying a really high price price matters a lot you can buy the best business in the world and if you overpay you're not going to earn particularly attractive returns we get involved in cases where a great business has kind of made a big mistake or you have a company that's kind of lost its way but it's recoverable we buy from shareholders who are disappointed who've lost confidence selling at a low price relative to what it's worth if fixed and then we try to be helpful in fixing the company you said barriers to entry how do you know if there's a type of moat protecting from competitors stepping up to the plate the most difficult analysis to do as an investor is that is kind of figuring out how wide is the moat how much at risk is the business to disruption and we're in I would say the greatest period of disrupt ility in history right technology a couple of 19-year-olds can you know leave whatever University or maybe they didn't even go in the first place they can raise millions of dollars they can get access to infinite uh ban with storage they can contract with engineers in lowcost markets around the world they can build a virtual company and they can disrupt businesses that seem super established over time and then on top of that you have major companies with multi-trillion dollar market caps working to find profits wherever they can and so that's a dangerous World in a way to be an investor you have to find businesses that it's hard to foresee a world in which they get disrupted in the beauty of the restaurant business and we've actually our best track records in restaurants we've never lost money we've only made a fortune interestingly investing restaurants a big part of it it's a really simple business and if you get your pootle right and you're at 100 stores you know it's not so hard to Envision getting to 200 stores and then getting to 500 stores and the key is maintaining the brand image growing intelligently having the right systems now when you go from 100 stores to 3500 stores you have to know what you're doing there's a lot of complexity you know if you think about your local restaurant you know the family's working in the business they're watching the cash register and you can probably open another restaurant across town but there are very few restaurant operators that own more than a few restaurants and operate them successfully and the quick service business is about systems that a stranger who doesn't know the restaurant industry can come in and enter the business and build a successful franchise now trotle is not a franchise company they actually own all their own stores but many of the most successful restaurant companies are franchise models like a Burger King a McDonald's Tim Horton you know all these various Brands Popeyes and there it's about systems but the same systems apply whether you own all the stores and it's run by a big Corporation or whether the owners of the restaurants are sort of franchisees you local entrepreneurs so if the restaurant has scaled to a certain number that means they've figured out some kind of system that works it's very difficult to develop that kind of system so that's a moe a moe is you get to a certain scale and you do it successfully and the brand is now understood by the consumer and what's interesting about Chipotle is what they've achieved is difficult they're not buying frozen hamburgers getting shipped in they're buying fresh sustainably sourced ingredients in preparing food in the store that was the first quality of the product of Chipotle is incredible it's the highest quality food you can get you can get a serious dinner for under 20 bucks and eat really healthfully and very high quality ingredients and that's just not available anywhere else and it's very hard to replicate and to build those relationships with Farmers around the country it's a lot easier to make a deal with one of the massive food producers and buy your pork from them than to buy from a whole bunch of farmers around the country that is a Big Mo for Chipotle very difficult to replicate you were talking about Moes and this kind of remind me of alphabet parir company sure it's a big position for us it's interesting that you think that maybe alphabet fits some of these characteristics It's tricky to know with everything that's happening in AI it's interesting that you think that there's a mo what's your analysis of alphabet why are you still positive about it it's a business we've admired as a firm for whatever 15 years but rarely got to a price that we felt we could own it because again the expectations were so high and price really matters really the sort of AI scare I would call it you know Microsoft comes out with chat GPT they do an amazing demonstration people like this most incredible product and Google working on AI even earlier obviously the Microsoft Microsoft was behind an AI that was really their chat GPT deal that gave them a market presence and then Google does this fairly disastrous demonstration of Bard and the world says oh my God Google's fallen behind an ai ai is the future stock gets crushed Google gets to a price around 15 times earnings which for a business of this quality is an extremely extremely low price and our view on Google one way to think about it when a business becomes a verb that's usually a pretty good sign about the mode around the business
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