저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
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AMD가 AI 가속기 Instinct MI325X, Pensando Polara 400, Pensando Salina DPU를 발표했고 주가는 4% 하락. 자사 주장상 H200 대비 용량 1.8배, 대역폭 1.3배, FP16 연산 1.3배 우위. 엔비디아 매출은 122% 증가, 매출총이익률 75%로 가격 결정력이 크며 AMD 경쟁이 가격 압박이 될 수 있음. 양산 출하는 2024년 4분기, 본격 수요 확인은 2025년 1분기 이후이며 2026년 MI350 시리즈 로드맵 제시.
다듬은 글
we got some big news today for AMD stock investors as the company held an AI event and introduced its next Generation chips for artificial intelligence surprisingly AMD stock price fell 4% on the day of these announcements so it seems like stock market investors were a little disappointed in amd's announcements but could these latest developments mean it's going to take some market share away from Nvidia and its dominant market share in the AI data center that remains to be seen but let's look at the details of these latest product announcements from AMD and what it could mean for AMD AMD officially launching its new Instinct Mi 325x accelerators the AMD pensando polara 400 I and the Mi AMD pensando celinda dpu collectively these products are to facilitate growth in amd's market share in the AI optimized data center AMD Instinct accelerators are designed for exceptional performance and efficiency for demanding AI tasks spanning Foundation model training fine-tuning and inferencing of course this is the category of artificial intelligence that's seeing the greatest investment Enterprises like Microsoft Amazon and Google Cloud are spending tens of billions of dollars building out these AI optimized data centers and to help increase the Computing for those data centers they're using these types of accelerators primarily from Nvidia that's why this announcement is such a big deal is because it could facilitate growth for AMD market share in this category at the expense of Nvidia however nvidia's dominant share makes it unlikely that AMD will take a significant share but it doesn't have to take that much market share to impact Nvidia you can see in the latest quarter nvidia's Revenue jumped by 122% but more impressively its profit margins have been exceptional 75% gross profit margin and that was up from 70% in the same quarter last year so not only is nvidia's revenue increasing by over 100% but it's also coming with very high profit margins so it's not just flat Revenue growth or empty calories as I like to call it Nvidia is generating very premium prices for its products and what this launch from AMD could do is force Nvidia to be more competitive on pricing because customers can now have perhaps a legitimate threat to Nvidia and say look if you don't give us better pricing we might go to AMD we might go to AMD so AMD saying that these new accelerators will deliver industry leading bandwidth and memory and they're going to offer supposedly according to AMD it's going to be 1.8 times more capacity and 1.3 times more bandwidth than nvidia's h200 chips and the am the AMD Instinct will also offer 1.3 times greater Peak theoretical fp16 and compute performance compared to nvidia's h200 so AMD is directly comparing itself to nvidia's products and saying that look our product could be better theoretically than what you're going to get with nvidia's h200 now this still needs to be proven out and we still need to get validation from customers to you know validate this statement from AMD but even if this is remotely true and AMD is a con a reasonable option against Nvidia the biggest impact I think is going to be on nvidia's pricing power Nvidia may have to offer better pricing to stay competitive or Nvidia might just say you know what it's okay if we lose some market share right we have over 80% market share in this industry it's okay if we lose some of this market share for one it'll at least Keep The Regulators off our back we've seen Regulators become more aggressive recently with companies that have these strong market performance metrics look at what's happening with alphabet and what's happening with Visa these are two companies that are dominant in their Industries and Regulators are going after them for their dominance so Nvidia might take an approach of saying okay let AMD you know have a little fun here let them get some market share and we won't push back we'll keep charging premium prices and we'll allow some of our market share to erode and that's still okay because we're still going to have an extremely robust business so AMD saying that these accelerators are on track for production shipments in Q4 of this year and they're expected to have widespread system availability from a broad set of platform providers including Dell eviden gigabyte CET Packard Enterprise Lenovo super micro which has been in the news lately and others starting in the first quarter of 2025 so this is when we'll really start to get information about demand for these new AMD products what our orders like what our installations like what our customers saying what's the production how much Revenue etc etc so this is going to be really interesting to follow so on top of this release and uh AMD saying that it's going to be like Nvidia Nvidia already said that it's going to have an annual road map an annual upgrade cycle to these accelerators and AMD is saying the same thing following this launch next year they'll have the Mi 350 series and the m i 350 series accelerators are on track to be available during the second half of 2020 2 so they've already got this product that's you know getting ready for production and shipping out in the first quarter 2025 but then in the second half they're going to have this next one the Mi 350 that they're going to ready for production and start shipping out probably in the first quarter of 2026 so just like Nvidia AMD wants to be on this annual road map which let's see if they're able to manage right AMD has done a good job in capturing market share in competitively taking market share in Industries like the personal computer industry amd's done a good job taking market share away from Intel and then in the gaming industry AMD had done a good job in making itself a viable competitor to Nvidia even though it was Never As Good As Nvidia in that product category it was at least a threat it was at least an option if Nvidia tried to command too high a price or take too much Market share customers had choices customers had an option to go with AMD instead and I suspect that AMD will have a similar role to play here for the AI accelerator Market I don't think it'll threaten Nvidia for leadership but I think it'll put itself in position to be that viable option for companies that kind of get tired of Nvidia asking for so much and also the limited Supply from Nvidia right Nvidia just announced that the Blackwell technology is sold out for all of this year like customers that order it today they probably won't get it for another 12 months so for customers that want earlier delivery for customers that don't want to wait in line for customers that want this product AMD is there now and it's going to be interesting to see the growth of this category for AM ounc
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