Massive Update for AMD Stock Investors

요약 보기

AMD를 9월 3일 452달러대에 매수로 상향했으나 주가가 655달러 이상으로 급등해 공정가치 419달러 대비 고평가로 판단, 보유로 하향. 2030년 잉여현금흐름 440억달러 성장 전망은 낙관적이나 밸류에이션 부담이 큼. 확신도는 낮음에서 중간으로 상향.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. On September 3, I upgraded AMD shares to " buy". Since then, their price has increased by more than 37%. This was one of my best updates all year. But today I'm downgrading AMD stock back to "hold." In this video I want to explain why I do thi. I track all my rankings, when they were set, and the metrics after that.

02. AMD: I upgraded the rating on September 3, 2026 to "buy." And over the past month, AMD shares have risen by over 37%. They are currently trading at over $655 per share. When I upgraded the stocks, they were worth around 500 or less. AMD stock is up over 205% year to date, and I predicted this move fairly accurately.

03. When the share price soared to over $500, I downgraded and told investors that the growth had been too rapid and that the fundamentals did not justify such a valuation at that time. So I maintained a "hold" rating until the stock price fell around September to around $455, when I upgraded the rating.

04. In fact, the stock was trading around $452 on September 3rd, when I upgraded AMD to a "buy" rating. And before that, earlier that year, when the share price fell to $180, or more accurately, sorry, $190, I upgraded the rating and confirmed that I considered it a profitable buying opportunity. So, AMD shares traded pretty closely in line with my valuation estimates.

05. When I felt AMD stock was undervalued, I would make a video, upgrade my rating to "buy ," and the stock price would react positively, moving up. When I felt the stock price was too high, I would make a video, downgrade the rating to " hold," and then the stock price would underperform and fall. So, they were moving pretty close to my cost estimates, which doesn't always happen, right?

06. I'm not saying that this always happens, that I'm always right in these assessments, and the market agrees with me, and stock prices move in line with my predictions. In fact, it's the opposite. This is rare, and that's why I'm highlighting this particular situation, because they were moving so close to my estimates.

07. It usually takes longer for the stock price to react to my view when I believe the situation is undervalued. Sometimes things get worse for me because I think stocks are undervalued and they keep falling. So, it was a pretty unique situation with AMD, where my rating increases or decreases were reflected in relation to the stock price movement .

08. They were quite accurate. So, given the accuracy of the valuations on AMD, what do I see today that makes me downgrade the stock, as I mentioned in the introduction? Well , the market price is now significantly higher than my estimate of the intrinsic value of one share. So I calculated the fair value of AMD stock at $419, and the current market price is over $655.

09. So, the overvaluation compared to my intrinsic value—and this is the main metric I look at when upgrading or downgrading AMD stock—is my estimate of the fair value of the company, which is now leaning toward downgrading. And that's why in the introduction to the video I mentioned that today I'm downgrading AMD shares from " buy" to " hold." Of course, there has been a lot of positive news surrounding AMD, and I can understand the hype surrounding this stock.

10. Headlines about one of the largest customers, Meta Platforms, the spread of agent-based AI, and AMD's strong position in this market—all of this points to excellent prospects for the company, and I agree. I have very optimistic forecasts for the growth of this company. In fact, I predict its free cash flow will grow from $7.5 billion this year to $44 billion in 2030.

11. So, I expect about six times free cash flow growth for AMD over the next 4 years with continued growth even after that. So I'm optimistic about the company's prospects, but the valuation is just too far ahead. And this has happened to AMD before, considering that it is one of the most popular companies that attracts a lot of investor attention, and investor sentiment is extremely positive.

12. So, as I said, I'm downgrading these stocks. I updated this in my table on October 6, 2026, downgrading the rating to "hold." And my confidence in my valuation of AMD is growing due to the recent accuracy of my forecasts. And you can see here, I have varying degrees of confidence. I'm not always sure.

13. I try not to overestimate my capabilities, and my confidence rating ranges from low to medium to high. I previously had a low level of confidence in my AMD valuation, but given recent results, I'm raising that estimate to a medium level of confidence that at current prices it doesn't look like a good buying opportunity.