You Might Not Believe This Prediction from Micron | MU Stock Deep Dive Part 3

요약 보기

마이크론이 2027~2028년 메모리 공급 부족이 2026년보다 악화될 것이라 밝혔고, 2027년 HBM 물량도 사실상 매진되어 대폭 가격 인상(최소 20% 이상으로 추정)이 예상된다. PC·모바일 수요는 두 자릿수 감소가 예상되나, 데이터센터 수요 확대로 마이크론 매출은 증가할 전망이다. 데이터센터 투자 피크 이후에는 자율주행·휴머노이드 로봇이 다음 메모리 수요 동력이 될 것으로 본다. 자율주행 완전 상용화는 2026년이 아닌 2028년 전후 확대를 예상한다. 결론적으로 마이크론 주주에게 매우 긍정적인 뉴스로 평가한다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Micron released its quarterly financial results yesterday after the stock markets closed, and one of the things investors were paying close attention to was Micron management's projections for industry growth expectations and the industry's supply and demand situation for 2027 and beyond. Management provided an updated forecast and said it expects the situation to worsen in 2027 and 2028 compared to 2026 when assessing supply and demand, which means continued restrictions that will get worse next year and the year after.

02. So, this is great news for Micron, SK Hynix, Western Digital, and other memory and storage vendors. But what does this mean for investors in AI stocks in general and Micron in particular , or is this great news for investors in Micron stock? , Micron said: “ We expect server growth to be in the high teens in both 2026 and 2027.” This is the number of servers being added.

03. However, they noted that the component volumes for these servers will be slightly smaller. But still, there will be growth in this category. It's just that growth will be slower than this year, slowing down in terms of the components that go into these servers due to very limited supply. The offer is simply not enough.

04. If there were more supply, buyers of this technology would buy more. So, we already knew that Micron's offering was sold out for 2026. We've known this for several months. But now management says 2027 is also almost completely sold out. We have entered into agreements for the vast majority of our HBM volume for calendar year 2027 with significant price increases compared to last year.

05. This comes after Micron had already raised prices by triple digits, in some cases by as much as 200 or 300%. And now management is telling investors that there will be a significant year-over-year price increase next year . So, a significant price increase, in my opinion, is at least 20%. It could be much more, but at least 20%.

06. Management will not tell investors about a significant price increase if it is only 10% or less. They would simply say that prices will be higher next year. But they are talking about " significant price increases", which to me means at least 20% or more. These higher prices are causing difficulties in some of the end markets that Micron serves.

07. In particular, this is the PC and mobile device industry. Demand in these categories is likely to decline by double digits this year, and probably even next year. Most OEMs, or original equipment manufacturers, raise prices for their customers. The most famous example is Apple, which raised prices across its entire product range.

08. So, due to higher prices, consumers of these goods are unlikely to buy them in the same quantities. Since the main demand comes from data centers, where it is growing rapidly, customers in this category are willing to pay more and buy even at higher prices. But not in the case of computers or phones, buyers do not want to overpay for them.

09. These are not the people who suddenly needed much more of this technology. It is data center buyers and developers who need these technologies. But thanks to higher prices, Micron's revenue will likely continue to grow, despite a significant reduction in the number of units sold. And this trend is likely to continue until 2027.

10. The data center expansion and hundreds of billions of dollars in investment will likely continue for at least two more years—in 2027 and 2028 . And that's when we can see the peak. Maybe it will stretch until 2029 or 2030, maybe not. So I'm watching the next catalyst, the next growth driver in this industry, right after data centers, is self-driving car technology.

11. Management said that the amount of memory in autonomous vehicles of level four and above typically exceeds 200 GB, and drives reach several terabytes, which is ten times more than in today's semi-autonomous cars of level two or three. Humanoid robots are expected to be similar to autonomous vehicles.

12. So, if we see the mass adoption of driverless cars, and if Tesla and Elon Musk are to be believed , millions of such cars should be on the roads yesterday, then this will create a surge in demand for these technologies in addition to data centers. So I don't think we'll get publicly available driverless cars anytime in 2026.

13. The year is almost over. We haven't seen much progress on this issue from Tesla. Testing is ongoing in only a few cities . 2027 could bring more cities and more expansion. But again , I don't think it will be widely available in hundreds or thousands of cities in the United States. Perhaps starting in 2028, this will reach a level where, say, this year the technology will be available in a dozen US cities.

14. In 2027, we may reach two or three dozen cities. And by 2028, we may reach several hundred cities with broader regulatory standards in many jurisdictions, which will allow for faster development and expansion. And if that's the case, of course, it would mean hundreds or even thousands of additional autonomous vehicles on the roads.

15. And then, of course, with improved regulation, the production of such autonomous cars could increase significantly, which would be the next driver of demand for components from Micron and other companies serving this industry. So, that's what I'm watching closely: physical AI as the next catalyst for this technology, which I think will come right when data centers peak and new centers stop being built.

16. We will monitor existing data centers and their equipment replacement cycles. Around this time, I estimate, we will see the mass deployment of driverless cars and the expansion of their capabilities. So, we may not get fully driverless cars, but we will see a wider implementation and development of second and third level autonomy features.

17. More advanced vehicles that can do more for you during your trip and take more control of the driving process. And, of course, this requires a lot more content, as Micron's management team emphasizes. So this is really great news for investors in Micron stock.