Is Taiwan Semiconductor Stock an Undervalued AI Stock to Buy Right Now? | TSM STock Analysis

요약 보기

에이전트형 AI 확산으로 TSMC의 수요가 추가 증가하고 있으며, 생산능력 확대를 위해 애리조나에 1,000억 달러를 추가 투자한다. 최근 12개월 매출은 1,430억 달러이며 영업이익률 55.84%로 10년 내 최고 수준이다. 경영진은 애리조나 생산 원가가 높아 수익성 하락을 예고하지만 아직 가시화되지 않았다. 주가는 연초 이후 48% 이상 상승했으나 지정학적 리스크 할인으로 S&P500 평균보다 낮게 거래된다. DCF 적정가 639달러 대비 현재가 445달러로 12~18개월 내 43% 상승을 예상하며, 매수 의견을 유지하고 확신도를 중간에서 높음으로 상향했다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. The emergence and spread of agent-based AI was an additional catalyst for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, which was already experiencing a demand boom thanks to accelerators supplied to data centers. As a result, Taiwan Semiconductor is ramping up its investment, investing an additional $100 billion in Arizona to build several more manufacturing facilities to meet this growing demand.

02. But does all this make TSM stock attractive to investors, or is it too late and has the share price risen enough to offset all the additional demand the market expects from Taiwan Semiconductor? Let's . Therefore, the spread of demand for AI creates additional momentum for Taiwan Semiconductor's growth.

03. $143 billion in revenue in the last 12 months, and you see the slope of that curve increasing over the years, especially accelerating after the advent of ChatGPT, and now you're likely to see further growth of that slope due to the development of agent-based AI. This is because agent-based AI creates demand for processors, memory, and storage components that have not previously received as much attention.

04. Previously, it was graphics processors and accelerators that generated a significant portion of demand; most of the semiconductor production was directed towards these categories. But now there's something that's added to that level of demand, and it's really creating a situation that's, uh, difficult for Taiwan Semiconductor to sustain.

05. That's why they need to invest so much in increasing capacity, because they are already fully loaded. And that simply creates additional demand on top of a situation where it was already exceeding supply. Moreover, TSMC generates this demand at premium prices. And while they have n't raised prices too much, they're still benefiting from higher capacity utilization, generating peak operating profits at record levels the company hasn't seen in a decade.

06. 55.84% is the latest figure for the past 12 months. And you see that this is the highest figure for the company in the previous decade. However, management does not expect these margins to continue to grow. But they've been saying this for over a year. As I mentioned in the introduction, TSM is investing in Arizona to expand its manufacturing capacity as its customers want greater geopolitical diversification.

07. Its customers, such as Nvidia, Apple, and AMD, are concerned that most of its manufacturing capacity is concentrated in Taiwan, and the region is under threat from China . So, companies wanted TSM to expand availability in additional countries and regions, and that's why TSM is investing in the United States, in addition to the billions of dollars in semiconductor subsidies the company received announced under the previous administration to expand manufacturing capacity.

08. And then, of course, there is the threat of tariffs being imposed under the current administration, further encouraging companies to invest in manufacturing in the United States. So, all of these reasons are driving this investment in Arizona. But the downside is that management has stated that the cost of production in Arizona is significantly higher than the cost of production in Taiwan.

09. So management predicts a decline in profitability in the future. But they've been saying this for over a year now, and we haven't seen that margin decline yet because capacity utilization has been so high that it's offset the expected profit decline. Still, management told investors: “Don’t get too excited.

10. Don't relax. We still expect a decline in profitability as a result of these international investments.” Since TSMC needs to invest so many billions, tens of billions of dollars, to meet the growing demand for semiconductor manufacturing, I wanted to see how efficiently this company allocates capital.

11. And judging by their performance over the previous decade, I would say they were good or very good, and certainly higher than their weighted average cost of capital at almost every point in the previous decade. So when you see a business like this as an investor, you can feel at ease if they need to quickly ramp up capital investment because they are good at it.

12. This is something they have been doing effectively for most of not just the last decade. I could go back three decades and we would see similar results. TSMC's excellent performance is no secret to investors. Its share price has increased by more than 48% since the beginning of 2026 . Of course, I'm happy about that .

13. I've been evaluating TSMC stock as a great buying opportunity all year. Given the share price rally, TSMC is trading near its highest point, as measured by the forward price-to- earnings ratio, compared to the past few years. But the overall level of absolute value is not that expensive. In fact, it trades at a discount to the average stock in the S&P 500 index.

14. The reason? The geopolitical aspect that I pointed out in the introduction. If TSM were an American company, it would trade at a forward price-to- earnings ratio above 30. And since it isn't, that's why the stock is trading at such a discount. So this risk premium, this geopolitical risk, is already factored into the valuation of TSM.

15. I also updated my discounted cash flow model for the company to get another look at the price. So, I calculated a fair value of $639, and compared to today's market price of $445, I predict TSM stock will appreciate by 43% after the markets close on September 30th. I will go live to cover these results.

16. If you would like to access this event, you will need to become a member and click the Join button below to access our channel membership program, which will give you access to this live reporting broadcast , as well as many videos exclusive to members. So, answering the question, do I still consider Taiwan Semiconductor stock a good buying opportunity?

17. I think so. I last updated this rating on August 31st with a confidence level of "medium." Today, I reaffirm this rating, but I raise my confidence level in this recommendation from medium to high due to the events I have observed in recent weeks, as the company's valuation relative to its prospects looks significantly more attractive to me than it did a few weeks ago.