저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
젠슨 황이 2030년 AI 시장 3~4조 달러 전망을 재확인했고, 과거 예측도 대체로 정확하거나 보수적이었다고 평가. 메모리 칩 부족이 없었다면 엔비디아 매출 성장률은 80~100%도 가능하다고 주장. 엔비디아 선행 PER 14.6배로 저평가, DCF 적정가 주당 338달러 대비 현재 219달러로 54% 상승 여력 제시. 영상 중 책 판매·스폰서 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said that by 2030, the AI market will reach $3-4 trillion . At first glance, this may seem like a shocking prediction, but I'll explain why it's a realistic expectation and what it means for investors in Nvidia and other AI stock, on Thursday at the Goldman Sachs Communicopia Tech conference, Jensen Huang confirmed his prediction that by 2030 the AI market will reach 3-4 trillion.
Exactly a year ago at the same event, he made the initial prediction. So a year later, I'm even surprised that Jensen Huang didn't raise his forecast, because the AI market has grown more than we expected a year ago . Remember, at the beginning of 2026, all the major companies operating in the AI ecosystem voiced their predictions about what would happen in 2026.
And almost every 3 months that these companies reported financial results, they almost unanimously raised their estimates, including Nvidia. That's why I'm surprised Jensen Huang didn't increase this forecast to a much higher number than the one he gave a year ago. It is also important to consider who exactly is making this forecast.
Jensen Huang was quite accurate or even understated in the forecasts he provided to stock market participants. This is important to consider for any CEO or analyst. It is worth paying attention to the history of their predictions and how accurate they have been . Are they overly optimistic, or are they lowering expectations only to exceed them later?
Isn't that right ? This needs to be taken into account when you incorporate these updates into your own investment plans. As for Jensen Huang, he was quite accurate or slightly underestimated the forecasts, achieving better results, especially regarding Nvidia's quarterly or annual reports. He was practically on target, or the company was showing better results than expected.
This has been the case for at least the last four to eight quarters. Now compare that to, say, Elon Musk of Tesla and SpaceX, who tends to be overly optimistic, right? The predictions he provided were about 90% inaccurate. Yes? Nine out of ten of his predictions were overly optimistic. So you have to take that into account in your calculations.
I always say that I don't want my CEOs or company leaders to give me overly optimistic estimates, but I also don't like it when management teams set low goals and then consistently exceed them. I don't want to make any adjustments when you give me a forecast. I want you to give me an accurate forecast.
I don't want you to be optimists or pessimists. Just be precise. And you know, this is exactly what I teach my students at university. Don't think that it's better to give an underestimated figure and then exceed it. And you shouldn't be too optimistic either. Your job is to provide accurate forecasts and estimates so that people who use your research don't waste unnecessary time adjusting your calculations.
And that's exactly what you have to do when you're dealing with management that's overly optimistic or pessimistic. You are forced to make edits. Then I have to do extra work to understand how optimistic or pessimistic the manager was. Anthony Noto of Sofi is known for giving under-the-radar predictions and then exceeding them, right?
The CEO of C3AI was also known for giving low estimates and then exceeding them. Of course, this was before he started having health problems . But again, I have to go back, assess the level of overvaluation or undervaluation, and then factor that into my forecasts. This is more complicated and adds risks to my assessment, because I am not confident in the numbers provided by the management team .
So this is important to remember. As for Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, he was relatively accurate. And if he had any inclination, it was a slight tendency to under-promise but over-deliver. He also noted that the semiconductor industry will only grow, which we are currently witnessing, thanks to two fundamental ideas: the emergence of a new level of computing with new applications and the end of the era of Moore's Law.
People expect AI models to get smarter because they don't like wrong answers. So, Nvidia is forecasting 70% revenue growth for fiscal year 2028, which is higher than analysts' expectations for this year . Now there is an important point here. Jensen Huang added that their revenue growth would have been much higher if it weren't for the memory chip shortage, right?
The same memory chips that Micron supplies to the market. Remember, Micron reported revenue growth of more than 4x in the last quarter, to over 40 billion, compared to 9 billion in the same quarter last year. And we'll learn a lot more about Micron when they report their quarterly results at the end of September.
I will be doing a live broadcast to highlight these results. This will be exclusive to channel sponsoponsor the channel. If not for these shortages in the memory market, Nvidia could have seen 80–100% revenue growth in the next fiscal year. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said during a quarterly conference call that sales could have been significantly higher in fiscal year 2028 if not for the shortage of memory chips.
And for Nvidia's CEO, the phrase "significantly higher" means at least 80% or more, right? If it were just a few percent higher, he would have just said they would be higher, but he said "significantly higher " during the conference call. And yesterday, CoreWeave's CEO said that every GPU they have can be sold to several different customers.
There is no doubt that the demand for artificial intelligence is growing rapidly, and when you consider the estimate of three to four trillion by 2030, it seems realistic, because this year alone, five companies—Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, and Oracle— will collectively spend over $850 billion on capital investments to build data centers.
And these are just five companies. Just five companies are already spending $850 billion on artificial intelligence, right? This is not counting the many other companies. Almost every large company is thinking about AI, implementing it into their services in one form or another. So this prediction from Nvidia's CEO seems realistic.
Current estimates of AI spending are around $1.5 trillion by 2026. Nvidia has already generated $33 billion in revenue over the past 12 months at its current spending pace. They occupy a dominant share of the AI data center market. In addition, they have stakes in companies such as CoreWeave, Intel, and OpenAI.
They own shares in these companies. So Nvidia is likely to benefit from this multi-trillion dollar category in a variety of ways. And that's great news for Nvidia investors, whose shares are still trading at a relatively low valuation with a forward price-to- earnings multiple of just 14.6. I know many investors consider Nvidia shares expensive given their $ 5 trillion market cap, but when viewed through the lens of earnings per share and the company's potential, they are relatively cheap.
Similarly, if you value Nvidia using the discounted cash flow model I created, the business value is $338 per share, and today it is trading at $219. So , Nvidia stock looks undervalued regardless of the analysis method. I see growth potential of over 54%. I own Nvidia stock and consider it the best investment in 2026.
Hello everyone. Many of you have asked about my investment strategy, and I am pleased to announce that I have written a book, now on sale, describing my six-step approach to stock valuation. I've added a link in the description below.
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