저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
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마이크론 2027년 말 주가를 전망. 애널리스트 추정 EPS가 FY2028 $171로 급증, 현재 포워드 PER 5.86배로 저평가. 기본 시나리오 PER 7~9배 적용 시 $1,200~1,500, 평균 $1,350(약 34% 상승). 상방은 장기계약으로 경기순환 탈피 시 $2,000~3,000 가능성, 하방은 클라우드 CAPEX 축소 시 $680 이하 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
Listen to this. Wall Street analysts who follow Micron predict that the company's earnings per share will increase from $1.23 in the fiscal year ending in August 2024 to $171 per share in the fiscal year ending in August 2028. This is a huge increase in profitability in such a short period of time, and investors are wondering whether this makes Micron stock a great buying opportunity, or where Micron's stock price could potentially end up by the end of 2027, which is actually the topic of this video.
I will answer the question of what I think Micron's stock price will be at the end of next year, by December 31, 2027. So, to make this stock price forecast, I will need a few numbers, estimates, and metrics, and I already talked about one of them in the introduction; This is the analysts' estimate of Micron's earnings per share for fiscal year 2028, and you can see that figure here—$171 per share.
After $155 in 2027, after $73 projected for the current fiscal year ending in August 2026, which Micron will report at the end of September. So, later this month, Micron will report its quarterly financial results for the fiscal year ending August 2026, and by the way, I will be doing a live broadcast to cover those results exclusively for channel members.
So click the "Join" button to find out what membership offers if you're interested in this live income stream. Of course, Wall Street analysts are predicting huge earnings growth for the company over the next few years, and these growth figures are justified, as we have seen similar growth at other companies, as well as at Micron.
Memory prices are skyrocketing , storage prices are rising due to supply shortages that are being channeled into AI-optimized data centers. Companies such as Nvidia, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon have told investors that they plan to spend an additional approximately $10 billion each, at least, in the current fiscal year due to higher memory prices; and it will likely remain that way for the next few years as they have signed long-term agreements.
So these earnings per share estimates and these figures for Micron are also based on information from other sources. So, we have some understanding of the numbers, and the predictability of these metrics has improved as we get relevant data from other companies in this ecosystem. The next metric I need is Micron's forward price-to- earnings ratio, which at the time of this writing is 5.861.
And you're right to consider this a ridiculously low forward price-to- earnings multiple for a company with skyrocketing revenue growth. You know, in the recently completed quarter, Micron's revenue grew more than 4 times compared to the same quarter last year; profitability has skyrocketed, as I just showed you in the earnings per share projections; and operating profit margin exceeded 80% in the same quarter, the highest among all the companies I follow.
So with such extraordinary numbers, Micron's low share price is a truly striking figure that makes investors question why it's trading at such a cheap valuation. And, of course, the answer for those who follow Micron is already known—it's the cyclical nature of the business. Investors predict that after earnings grow rapidly over the next few years, they will peak and then possibly decline, as the semiconductor industry in general is cyclical for one reason or another.
For example, one reason for the cyclicality in 2020 and 2021 was that consumers around the world were in lockdown due to the pandemic, while governments provided trillions of dollars in stimulus. So people had more money and fewer places to spend it. One of the things that consumers spent a lot of money on was electronics.
People bought more phones, laptops, computers, etc. So there was a surge, a concentration of consumer electronics purchases, which carried over demand from future years. And that's why there was such cyclical growth. And then, of course, there was a pause in 2022 and 2023 . The number of people buying laptops, personal computers, and smartphones has declined, and the industry as a whole has been in dire straits for years.
To this day, the smartphone and PC industries are struggling to grow because too many people bought these devices in 2020 and 2021. Investors fear that the same thing will happen to data centers. Hyperscalers are now spending so much on building these data centers over the next few years that investors predict that once they complete the buildout, there will be a pause, they will no longer need to spend, and only the replacement of existing centers will stimulate demand in the future, which will be another cyclical peak, which will later lead to a cyclical bottom.
So, investors are not confident that Micron's earnings per share will remain high for an extended period beyond the next few years. So, with all of this in mind, what do I think Micron's stock price will be on December 31, 2027? Well . If their EPS stays on track to reach $171 by the end of fiscal 2028 and the forward P/E ratio remains at its current level, the stock price could be $1,002, which is no different from today's level and will disappoint many investors.
But I actually think the company's forward P/E ratio will increase. And if it rises to seven, the share price could rise to $1,197, which is about 20% higher than today's level . That's a respectable rate of return, considering the increased risk for Micron investors. Many would be satisfied with that rate of return.
I know I would be happy if I got about 20% on my Micron shares between now and the end of next year. I would be happy if I owned them. But if the forward P/E ratio increases even more, to nine, then the share price could rise even more, to $1,539. That would be about a 50 percent increase , or yes, a 50 percent increase over the current level.
And I know investors would be happy with that rate of return for the next 15 months or so. But if you take everything into account, not everything is so rosy and cloudless. The forward P/E ratio may decline. And if it falls to four, the share price could drop by more than 30% to $684. That's why I mentioned that you should consider risks when thinking about investing, and the risk-reward ratio is an important factor in all my evaluations.
But with all that said, my base case scenario is that Micron's stock price at the end of 2027 will be between $1,200 and $1,500 per share, with a forward P/E ratio of seven to nine. On average, this will be $1,350, which means a potential upside of 34% from the current market price, which I think is an excellent rate of return for a company with this level of risk.
But there are factors that can cause the stock price to move outside this range. And one of the growth factors is investors' repricing of Micron shares and the belief that it is no longer a cyclical business. One mechanism by which this could happen is for Micron to sign more of these long-term agreements.
They have already made it clear to investors that they have signed about 16 such long-term agreements for the period until 2030. And if they expand on that and continue to sign long-term deals that shape their sales projections and provide revenue visibility well into the 2030s and 2035, and really change the sales process, it could convince investors that the company is no longer cyclical.
That this is a company that has sales forecastability for years to come. They are already signing agreements to replace the memory and drives that are being delivered to data centers today; they sign contracts not only for today's sales, but also for future replacement of equipment being installed in data centers now.
They are already making agreements for a replacement in 4 years, as well as for a further replacement in 8 years. If they can prove this to investors through the mechanism of long-term agreements, it could cause a complete revaluation of Micron shares. And as you can see, they trade for a fraction of the average S&P 500 stock price, when measured by the forward price-to- earnings ratio.
So if Micron's valuation approaches the S&P 500 stock average, it could cause the stock price to soar to over $ 2,000 or even $3,000 per share; It's unlikely, but quite possible. I would also like to highlight one negative scenario in which Micron's stock price could fall outside this range, even below it—that is the peak of the capital spending cycle.
If these big cloud providers convince or tell investors, " You know, we've built enough, we don't need to build anymore, we need to control costs and balance, conserve cash, we're not interested in building like we used to, and maybe we've spent too much, so we want to limit costs." And also: “We are reviewing some of the long-term contracts signed with these companies, because we don’t really need as much data center capacity as we thought .” If we start seeing similar statements from Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, etc., it could cause Micron stock to collapse, even below the $680 level I'm mentioning here.
Again , this is an unlikely scenario, but it has a non-zero probability. If that happens, Micron's stock price could fall even below the lower end of this forecast range. The situation with Micron is very interesting . I'm looking forward to the company's earnings report at the end of this month. I will be hosting a live broadcast exclusively for channel sponsors.
This will be an exciting event. I hope many of you will join us. During the last Nvidia report, I also streamed for channel sponsors. It was a really interesting event with great activity from our sponsors. It was a very lively conversation, which was interesting for me personally. So I am very much looking forward to this event.
Micron, of course, is one of the key stocks in the entire AI ecosystem. Where Micron goes, so do many other stocks in the industry, so it will be very informative to hear what Micron has to say at the end of September. Hello everyone, many of you have been asking about my investment strategy, and I am pleased to announce that I have written a book, now available, that outlines my six-step investment approach to stock valuation. I've added a link in the description below.
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