저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
AMD는 Helios 랙스케일 솔루션으로 데이터센터 시장 확대가 기대되며, 서버 CPU 시장 2030년 2200억 달러 전망 속 50% 점유 목표가 제시됨. 수익성은 아직 엔비디아 대비 낮으나 자산경량 모델상 개선 여지 있음. 선행 PER 29.5배, 적정가치 428달러 대비 현재가 456달러로 안전마진 내 평가. 앞선 고평가 경고 후 주가 하락으로 '보유'에서 '매수'(확신도 낮음)로 상향하며, 15% 추가 하락 시 더 확신할 수 있다고 함.
다듬은 글
AMD is focused on the strategic expansion of its Helios scale-out solution in data center racks, forecasting it to begin in the fourth quarter and continue into the first quarter of 2028 . Of course, Nvidia is currently the only other rack-scale solution on the market, and Nvidia is gaining significant market share with this full-featured solution.
Some enterprises, such as large hyperscalers , conveniently turn to different vendors to get the products they need, the components they need to build a data center. Whereas others, such as institutions and governments, for sovereign AI, are more interested in buying a complete solution, turning to a single vendor for everything they need, because they are uncomfortable turning to different vendors, assembling the components that go into the data center.
Thus, AMD is poised to benefit significantly by bringing this product to market. But does this make AMD stock a buying opportunity in addition to the company's significant share of the server processor market ? Well, let's take a closer look at this question and answer it. to see the top 10 deals to buy now.
So, AMD shares have been falling slightly since reaching the "share" mark. Of course, ever since AMD stock topped $500 a share, I've been warning investors that it's too expensive, that there are better options on the market. In fact, I would have assumed that Nvidia would be a much better buy at these levels compared to AMD.
Of course, I understand that AMD is a very popular stock, and I received a lot of negative comments when I made those videos claiming that AMD stock was overvalued at over $550, which is approaching $600 per share. And fast forward to today, and it turned out to be the right decision to avoid AMD shares at levels above 500, 550, as they are currently trading at $455 per share.
I last updated my AMD rating on August 12, 2026, where I again told investors that it didn't look like a buying opportunity at these levels. On August 12, AMD shares were trading at around $520 per share, and their market value has lost around $70 since then. But let's see what AMD stock looks like now after this significant sell-off.
Are they finally rated properly to justify an upgrade to a buy rating? Well, one thing I really appreciate about AMD is its ability to innovate, go to the next level, and gain market share in categories with strong leaders. The company has done this before many times in different industries, whether competing with Intel for market share in personal computers in the area of processors used in them, or competing with Nvidia in the area of gaming graphics processors used in those computers.
The company did a good job, coming in second in critical categories and implementing innovations. Also, I think Lisa Su, the CEO of AMD, is one of the best CEOs in the market. Revenues have grown to more than $41.3 billion , and AMD analysts and Wall Street analysts who follow AMD suggest its revenue is likely to grow over the next few years as agent-based AI becomes more widespread and the importance of core email (CE) processors grows in data centers.
In fact, AMD predicts that the server processor market could reach $200 billion, or more precisely $220 billion by 2030, and AMD is aiming to capture 50% market share in this category, which means it could generate $110 billion in revenue for this product alone in this product segment by 2030. Right?
Compare that to its current 12-month revenue of just 400 of $41 billion . So, you can see that the scope of its future prospects is remarkable. Profitability and cash flow are not yet as profitable as competitors such as Nvidia. Its cash flow from operations to sales was 24% over the past 12 months.
This is almost the highest figure in the previous decade, but still about half the one Nvidia is running at. And even if you look at operating profitability, it's still only a fraction of the level at which Nvidia operates. Of course, AMD's revenue is still only a fraction of Nvidia's. And if AMD's revenues grow to the levels that management and Wall Street expect, it's reasonable to assume that its profitability could approach levels similar to Nvidia's, since it operates on a similar business model.
An asset-light business model where AMD focuses on product research and development and outsources manufacturing to TSMC, the same company Nvidia outsources its manufacturing to . So, given the similarities, it's reasonable to assume that AMD's profitability could approach Nvidia's. Even if it doesn't match or surpass Nvidia's profitability, I don't think AMD will ever be number one in this category, but a strong second place could still provide excellent returns for investors.
So, now that the share price has roughly fallen over the previous few months, it is trading at a more reasonable valuation with a forward price to earnings of 29.5. This is a drop from the previous forward price high to a gain of around 37 earlier this year. This was the peak of 2026. In 2024, they were trading at much higher valuations based on forward P/E ratios, but that was because they were further away from their cyclical bottom.
Remember, they went through this huge bottom as consumer electronics spending declined, and they have yet to release significant products in the data center AI segment. So the forward P/E multiple looked higher because their EPS was significantly lower. And that is still true to some extent . Their earnings per share today are much lower than they will be in 3 years and 5 years.
This is because they are still recovering from these lows. They are still in the early stages of benefiting from the tailwinds of artificial intelligence. So today I also updated my fair value estimates for AMD. And now I've calculated that the business is worth $428 per share. The market price is $456 per share.
This is well within my safety margin. So , the stock looks pretty valuable, given the margin of safety, whether I'm valuing based on forward price to earnings or whether I'm valuing based on a fair value estimate using a discounted cash flow model, I would say AMD stock looks pretty valuable. 'm going to cover these earnings results live, but it will be exclusive to channel members.
If you are interested in attending this live earnings event , click the join button below and learn what channel membership is all about. You can get access for less than $5 per month. So, I mentioned that I have n't rated AMD stock as a "buy" for a few months now because I thought the valuation was overvalued, and it turned out to be the right decision, even though a lot of my viewers, a lot of AMD stock fans, were pushing and leaving a lot of negative comments, and there was a lot of popularity, a lot of hype in support of AMD stock, because it's one of the most popular stocks on the market.
Well, since the share price has fallen, the stock looks much more attractive. Their price is fair now. I don't think stocks are overvalued anymore. So, given that it's one of the better companies, one of the better managed companies, with great tailwinds supporting its growth, today at this lower price I'm upgrading AMD stock to "buy." I previously rated them as a " hold" or "not a buy opportunity" with medium conviction.
My upgrade to " buy" is due to a low level of conviction, a low level of trust. I would feel much more comfortable pushing AMD stock higher or buying AMD stock at about 15% below the market price. But, as of today, I have rated this as a low- conviction buying opportunity, and I updated this rating on September 3, 2026.
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