저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라 로보택시 이벤트는 주가 부양 효과가 컸다고 평가. 3~5월 약 $160에서 $250 부근까지 상승에 기여했고, 이벤트 후 8% 하락에도 여전히 약 $60 높음. 그러나 일정·가격(3만 달러 이하) 약속은 신뢰하기 어렵고, 전기차 판매는 정체. 경영진은 로보택시·로봇 등 미래 서사로 주의를 돌리는 전략을 쓴다고 주장.
다듬은 글
I know a lot of investors are underwhelmed by what Tesla presented yesterday at the robo taxi event but I think the robo taxi event overall was a huge success for Tesla I'm going to share with you the details why I think that's the case the company promoted its next level Next Generation Robo taxi or Robo cab and the robo van that they expect to have the robo cab at least they expect to have in production in 2026 the details of the event were not the reason why I think the event was a huge success and I'll go into more elaboration on that as well but I think the overall what it meant for Tesla stock investors is the reason it was a success so let's take a look at the reasoning why I think this was a huge success for Tesl you could see today on the day after the event Tesla stock prices down roughly 8% after the company held the event um at the Warner Brothers Studios in Burbank California it's close to where I live late Thursday evening by the way the event was delayed by 40 minutes um I don't think Tesla event scorers were happy about that I certainly wasn't I was waiting to watch the event and I was annoyed that I had to wait an extra 40 minutes before the event even got started but I watched the entire event and I thought it was a great success for Tesla now let me share with you why I think that's the case so I highlighted that Tesla's stock price is down roughly 8% today right but if we look back longer term around March or April May when Tesla initially announced that it was going to have a robo event remember it was originally scheduled for sometime in August and then they delayed it to October the stock price was trading at around $160 per share around $160 per share so the hype and the promotion around the robo taxi event lifted Tesla's share price or was one of the contributing factors that lifted Tesla's share price from around $160 per share all the way up to around around $250 per share this was the primary contributing factor in my opinion because Tesla's sales and production and delivery numbers have not been good this year they're fighting to show some kind of growth here in 2024 in terms of production and Delivery for electric vehicles and this comes when they have an extra model to sale this year compared to last year when they didn't have the Cyber truck so they fighting to show some kind of growth in electric vehicles even with an extra model so in terms of just electric vehicle sales uh profits cash flows those have not been good and Tesla even removed the expectation of growing the company's business at a compounded annual rate of 50% annually so all of those have been removed and Elon Musk has really pointed investors towards the robo taxi towards Robotics and kind of shifted attention away from Electric Vehicle sales and tried to generate attention on everything else other than electric vehicle sales and so in that regard this was a huge success the stock price even after today's 8% decline is still up roughly $60 per share from when the company started talking about the robo taxi event so in my opinion the event has had the intended consequences the intended circumstances from Tesla's point of view right the intent all along is to you know keep the stock price inflated keep the stock price moving higher and keep investors engaged in the company to give them more time to develop these Technologies and even Tesla and Elon Musk himself admitted that you know I'm I tend to be optimistic on timelines and shamelessly he said right knowing full well that he's been promising Robo taxi since 2019 here we are in 2024 and all we got from the event is more promises about something in the future and here you have what musk said he said the company would begin manufacturing the Cyber cabs before 2027 and then he acknowledged that he tends to be optimistic on timelines he tends to be optimistic on timelines that's the understatement of the century Elon Musk has often given timelines that have been way behind schedule and it leaves investors playing a guessing game it leaves investors like myself saying okay Elon Musk if you're saying before 2027 what does that really mean does that really mean before 2029 or before 2030 how should I make an adjustment for your optimism for your uh Habit of being a little bit or I shouldn't say little bit but behind schedule over promising and underd delivering how am I to adjust for that right because I can't just take you on your word because you've proven that you've been late so many times over promising and underd delivering so it wouldn't be prudent for me to say okay you say before 2027 I'm going to pencil that in before 2027 I'm going to pencil it in and say okay let's say October 202 26 right I can't do that because that wouldn't be prudent after so often being told that some product is going to be available at some time and it doesn't end up being available the other big promise was on the price as Elon Musk said that anybody will be able to purchase the two-seater cyber Cab For Less Than $30,000 less than $30,000 I don't think that's going to be available at the same time they're talking about that before 2027 timeline unless Tesla is willing to absorb massive losses on these products and make it up by selling the services or something attached to the product maybe Insurance maybe something else attached to the product because as it is now they can't sell their existing models for less than $30,000 how are they going to sell this more Innovative product at less than $30,000 so it's unlikely that is a orange for oranges comparison here there's going to be other details or when the time comes he can just say you know what that's what we thought but it turns out it's actually going to be $50,000 or whatever the case might be the exciting thing was a robo van that Tesla brought out um the robo van could seat up to 20 people and be completely driverless that product there was no details in terms of timelines or prices or any of that other than Tesla just saying that it's going to be cheaper to use these Robo taxis or Robo Vans then it's going to be to use public transportation like a bus while that might be plausible at some point in the future it's hard to see how that's going to be possible and Tesla and Elon Musk have provided very few details on how that's going to be possible how are they going to lower the costs of production enough to make this a plausible reality when you can't even do that right now with your existing models and sales are plummeting or not plummeting I should say sales are flat and you need to encourage sales and one way to encourage sales would be to lower prices so I know this is an urgent need for Tesla at the moment with their current lineup and they haven't really done that at the lower than 30,000 price point that's what I think a lot of Tesla stock investors were waiting for is details on the lower priced model the model 2 uh priced at you know Tesla and Elon Musk had talked about a $225,000 model but now that it's time to you know it's becoming approaching the time when they had promised to deliver that $25,000 model and now when it's time to deliver on that model you can see them shifting attention to the robo taxi and Robotics and other things right taking your attention away from that product that they were expected to deliver and I wouldn't be surprised when the timelines arrive for the robo taxi to be a product that generates revenue and profits and cash flow and when those revenues and profits and cash flows disappoint Tesla really starts to increase the marketing of the robotics the Optimus robot right to again take your attention away from the lower than expected revenue and profits and cash flow of the moment and shift your attention to something in the future right I think this is a habit that Tesla has found great success in right it's lifted the company to a near $1 trillion do valuation more than any other car company and so I think they found the formula for success is just to underd deliver and always promise something in the future that keeps the stock price inflated and keeps investors sticking around waiting for that next big thing that's going to happen just a few years away it's just a few years away just be a little more patient right and I think since it's been so successful and it's made Elon Musk one of the most wealthiest people in the world I think they're going to continue this strategy until it stops working for them right so this in my opinion for those reasons was a huge success for Tesla they lifted the stock price they bought themselves time between March and April and May of this year all the way until now here we are in October in a year where EV sales have been flat for the company it's bought them all this time lifted the stock price and now next year they can start to work on the next thing the next marketing thing to really lift the stock price and keep investors engaged as long as investors are engaged and the stock pric is elevated I think Tesla is doing a great job because it's valued at roughly 10 times any other car company so they're doing a great job convincing investors to stick around and buy this stock and buy their forecasts of a fut a link in the description below
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