저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
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3분기 PC 출하량이 예상보다 부진했다는 Gartner 데이터를 소개. AI PC 수요 견인 효과는 아직 미미하며 소비자가 혜택을 체감하기 전까지 교체 수요가 지연될 수 있다고 봄. 인텔·마이크로소프트·AMD 모두 PC 사업이 성장의 핵심 축이라 영향이 클 것이며, 2020~2021년 구매분의 교체 시점이 관건이라는 분석. 다만 교체 시점 자체는 '언제'의 문제라고 함.
다듬은 글
we got some big news for Intel stock Microsoft stock and AMD stock investors as third quarter shipments of personal computers came in worse than expected in this video I'm going to review the details of that latest announcement the latest data of PC computer sales and connected to those three companies I mentioned earlier and what it could mean for investors of those companies specifically individually one at a time so let's take a look at this dat according to Gartner third quarter PC shipments or devices sent outters Microsoft specifically is pushing its own version of AI PCS it refers to as co-pilot PCS which meet certain Hardware requirements such as powerful npus but the marketing doesn't seem to be paying off just yet according to a Gartner analyst AIP PCS did not boost demand for PCs since buyers have yet to see their clear benefits or business value and that's true across the board uh according to Consumers artificial intelligence PCS are not yet a compelling reason to buy computers consumers don't yet know what these added benefits are they haven't experienced these AIP PCS they don't know the benefits they haven't seen demonstrated benefits it's still very early days and it's going to take some time to get experience and see these PCS in action before maybe consumers start to see the benefits right if for instance on campus at the University I teach if all the computers at the computer labs we have start to be upgraded to aipc and students start to use these AIP PCS and have a good experience with it and see the benefit then when it comes time to upgrade their own computers they'll say yeah these AI PCS are pretty cool they have a lot of benefits and so they'll want to upgrade but before experiencing it firsthand they might not see a necessity to upgrade their existing computers to these newer AI PCS and so what could that mean for companies like Intel right so Intel had a miserable quarter in its latest update but the personal computer segment was a rare bright spot the client Computing group saw Revenue increase 9% in the latest quarter to 7.4 billion and this is one of Intel's biggest segments overall the company said that Intel continues to Define and drive the aipc category shipping more than 15 million AIP PCS since December far more than all of Intel competitors combined and they're on track to ship more than 40 million AI PCS by year end so it'll be interesting to see when Intel reports quarterly results at the end of October if they continue to forecast more than 40 million aips by the end of the year or if they're downgrading that estimate as a result of these latest third quarter figures of overall PC sales similarly Microsoft's personal Computing segment has seen robust growth although that growth did slow down considerably you can see here Windows OEM Revenue growth year-over-year after falling 12% in the third quarter I'm sorry of the fourth quarter of 2023 has four consecutive quarters of growth but that growth rate slowed down in the latest reported quarter for Microsoft slowing down from 11% growth in Q3 2024 to 4% growth in Q4 of its 2024 it'll be interesting to see Microsoft and it's reported quarterly year-over-year growth in Windows OEM Revenue this is again a big part of Microsoft's business and it's not unlike apple with the iPhone if you have a Windows PC you're more likely to have Microsoft's other products including its productivity Suite Microsoft Word Microsoft XEL Etc and so you're more likely to be in the windows ecosystem in the the Microsoft ecosystem if you have a Windows PC so this is a major segment for Microsoft going forward as well and finally AMD which itself is having a mixed year with its client segment Revenue which includes personal computer sales up 49% year-over-year and 9% from the previous quarter driven by sales of its AMD rise and processors for personal computers so it was one of two segments delivering great growth for AMD its gaming segment and embedded segment are down year-over-year and so AMD was counting on this client segment Revenue growth to drive overall growth for the business it'll be interesting to see if AMD experienced a big slowdown in year-over-year Revenue growth as a result of the slowing PC unit sales overall industrywide so really disappointing results here for personal computer sales and it's going to have major implications for companies like AMD Microsoft and Intel hopefully these three companies will gain market share and continue to drive Revenue growth despite industrywide slowdowns because of product specific cases however they will expect and they will hope that the rebound will accelerate in the fourth quarter given the slowdown in the third quarter and given those factors that will inevit L Drive the replacement cycle in personal computers it's just a matter of when at this point when will those bulk of computers that were purchased in 2020 and 2021 when will those begin to be upgraded in large numbers will it be at the end of this year in the middle of next year or the year after that that's the big question mark is when and not if because there's a large number of computers that were purchased in 2020 and 2021 that will need to be upgrade







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