저자: MinorityMindset진행자 · 외국인
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제이미 다이먼의 인플레이션 경고(재정지출·국채발행으로 인한 물가 재가속 가능성, 연착륙 불확실성)를 소개하고, 2024년 4월 CPI 3.4% 둔화를 근거로 한 인플레 'win' 평가에 반박. 정부지출 증가율(2019~2024 약 49%)이 물가상승률(약 23%)을 상회한다고 주장. 연준의 금리 인하 압박과 대선 정치 요인을 언급하며 경기침체 가능성 유지. 마지막에 투자 일반론(현금 준비, 교육, 트렌드 파악)과 Bridgewater CEO의 향후 10~15년 수익률 둔화 전망 언급.
다듬은 글
Jamie Diamond called out the Federal Reserve Bank last week in an interview because he said that inflation isn't coming down the way that the Federal Reserve Bank says he says that we might see higher interest rates for longer and he also says that we still have a possibility for a hard Landing while everybody says that this talk of a recession is all over take a listen so I'm just a little cautious that thinking that looking monthly numbers whether or not they're accurate is going to tell you what next year is going to bring he's referencing the latest inflation numbers that although inflation has calmed down a little bit that doesn't mean that infl is going to continue to stay calm in 2025 and interestingly part of the reason why he's saying this is because the Federal Reserve Bank keeps printing money to fund the government's spending which ultimately creates more inflation remilitarization the restructuring of trade there's going be some of that we don't know exactly how much yet that's going to be inflationary the green economy is going to be inflationary fiscal spending is inflationary uh commodity prices if you look at commis and oil copper there's a chance of being short supply down the couple years from now so there are a lot of out there which can drive inflation but again not today you know I'm talking about 12 months 24 months from now so what I want to do in this video is three things number one is I want to talk about Jamie damond's concerns about our economy number two is I want to talk about where inflation is heading and number three is I want to talk about what you need to know and understand so let's start by talking about number one Jamie Diamond's concerns about our economy but before we do I want to give a quick shout out to our sponsor element now for those of you that live active Lifestyles and watch your diet I think you'll get a lot of value out of this because I try to work workout every day and so for me staying hydrated is very 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super simple to make and tastes pretty good too and the best part of all is that because you're watching the minority mindset if you use my link down in the description below and then you purchase any drink mix element is going to give you a free sample pack with eight different flavors that you can try out what they have and see which one you like the most so if you want to optimize your nutrition with element I got the link to how you can do that and get your free sample pack with the drink mix down in the description below where you can go to drink element.com slj that's drink lnt.com slj breath now going back to Jamie Diamond's concerns what he says is a lot of people in America are really honing in on the short-term inflation Trends but what he says is that that might not be an indication of what's coming within inflation next year or the year after that and the main culprit to this according to Jamie Diamond is government spending and government borrowing take a look and I think the fiscal stimulus still is high and it's a global phenomenon yes you know since Co a lot of money was spent there was a lot of QE and those things are still kind of surging through the system now I know these numbers look very overwhelming but let me break down exactly what this says and means so stick with me for just a minute back in the year 2019 before the pandemic the United States government spent $4.4 trillion and then they ran a deficit of $948 billion I'll explain what that means in just a minute then 2020 came the pandemic hit and the government spent $7 trillion they ramped up spending and they also ramped up their national deficit to $3.1 trillion then 2021 the government spent $6.8 trillion with a deficit of $2.7 trillion 2022 they spent 6.1 trillion with a deficit of 1.4 trillion 2023 they spent 6.1 trillion again with a deficit of 1.7 trillion and then in 2024 the estimation is that the government is going to spend 65 trillion with a deficit of around $1.6 trillion and then the estimation for 20125 is that the government is going to spend $7.3 trillion with a deficit of $1.8 trillion now the reason why this is so significant is that between the years 2019 and 2024 over the last 5 5 years government spending has ramped up by 49% while inflation over the last 5 years at least reported inflation is under 23% that means the government is spending money twice as fast as what the reported inflation numbers are and that money has to come from somewhere because the government ultimately only has one source of income and the income is taxpayers through tax dollars you go to work to get paid you pay the government taxes you run a business and you make a profit you pay the government taxes you sell your Investments for a profit you pay the government taxes so now the government makes tax dollars and the more tax dollars they make the more they can spend but what they've been doing is they've been spending more money but they've also been increasing the national deficit remember back before the pandemic the government had less than a trillion dollar national deficit now it's a $1.6 trillion national deficit so what does that mean if they spend money they don't have well think of it this way if the government wants to go and build a highway and it's going to cost a million dollars hypothetically they can do two things to go out and raise the money they can go and impose a tax on you and me and say we're going to tax these people and we're going to raise a million dollars to goad and build this highway which means they have to go and get the votes they have to go and get this approved and then they have to go out and Levy this tax on us to raise the money to build a highway but that can be difficult because tax hikes are not very exciting unless you're saying tax that person not me right that's kind of how it works but that is not so easy and so what the government has been doing is instead of going out and raising taxes to increase their spending they've been increasing the spending without increasing taxes which might sound kind of weird how do you then increase spending without increasing taxes how do you keep spending more money without making any more money and what they've been doing is working to borrow money to keep spending money so now where is the government borrowing this money from well you and I can go out and lend money to the United States government this is called a treasury right anybody can go and lend money to the United States government but the biggest purchaser of these treasuries is the Federal Reserve Bank the Federal Reserve Bank is a central bank of the United States and they have the special little power to essentially print money so now if the government wants to spend $1.6 trillion that they don't have they want to build highways they want to build Bridges they want to do whatever they want to do now they got to raise the money to do that well I don't have a trillion dollars you don't have a trillion so what do they do they call up the Federal Reserve Bank and they say hey we need a trillion and a half or actually a trillion.
6 what's the difference just a little rounding error can you give us that money and so now the Federal Reserve Bank can print this money they lend it to the United States government and now the United States government suddenly has this extra $1.6 trillion to go out and spend in the economy now they can go out and invest in Building Bridges building highways they can create jobs they can do all these things which stimulates the economy but there's a little consequence here which is what Jamie Diamond is talking about which is well inflation because remember what caused the inflation problems that we've been seeing now a lot of people have different opinions on this but the ultimate root cause the root cause of the inflation was the Federal Reserve Bank in the first place because when you print money that devalues the individual dollars that we have right if the Federal Reserve Bank doubles the amount of dollars in circulation that effectively reduces the value of each individual dollar that we have in our bank accounts and in our pockets because now there's more currency available the value of each individual dollar goes down right you can print more dollars but you can't print more wealth and that's what you have to understand that there's a difference between what we call money or currency and wealth see it's easy to print the dollars but the wealth has to actually be created you have to work to create the wealth it costs about 13 cents to print a $100 bill but it takes a lot of work to produce a $100 worth of labor now of course $100 worth of labor today is different than $100 worth of Labor back in 2019 but this is where what Jamie Diamond says is well we're still ramping up spending I mean we're spending $6.5 trillion now through the government which is almost 50% more than what we were doing 5 years ago which was already extremely high now it's extremely extremely high we've ramped up our national deficit by more than 60% which means the government is spending more and more money they don't have which is inflationary now you might say well some of these things are good which they might be but you know what buying organic food is also nice but you got to have the money to be able to afford it and this is where the question is what does the government do first should they be able to afford it or should they just spend the money first and that's kind of the dilemma and this is where Jamie Diamond is saying sure you can spend the money first but then you're going to have to pay the consequence later you're going have to pay the price later through inflation and this brings me to the second part of the video which is really understanding where we are with inflation and where inflation is going so if you back up to the beginning part of 2024 when we got the January inflation numbers they came in hotter than expected when we got the February inflation numbers they came in hotter than expected when we got the March inflation numbers that came in hotter than expected and then when we got the April inflation numbers they came in at expectations and this is why a lot of people right now are finally calling the win on inflation that inflation is cooling down because the inflation numbers in April came in at expectations that this 3.4% inflation is now finally cooling inflation so we've won this fight on inflation but this is where what Jamie Diamond is saying is number one well the government is doing all of the spending which can make inflation worse next year but LLY 3.4% inflation is not a win on inflation especially when the Federal Reserve Bank says that they want 2% inflation it's still quite a bit of a ways away now you got to remember that 2% inflation is still not 0% inflation 2% inflation means the price of things continue to rise just not as fast as they were before so now as we think about where is inflation going to go well it really just depends on what the Federal Reserve Bank does because there's a lot of pressure on the Federal Reserve Bank to help stimulate the economy because the economy and inflation work kind of hand to hand in different directions because if the Federal Reserve Bank were to cut interest rates tomorrow what would they do that would stimulate the economy because then more people would buy houses real estate agents would make more commissions mortgage brokers would make more commissions title agents would make more commissions home prices would probably go up you'd have more equity in your home you'd see more refinancing you'd see more spending but then the consequences the inflation problem also gets worse as well and so this is where the Federal Reserve Bank is kind of playing this Balancing Act we on one hand they're trying to balance inflation on the other hand they're trying to balance the economy and not tip the United States into a deep recession and so now when they're trying to do this this tight rope walk what they want to do is bring inflation down without having a deep recession because guess what well a lot of people say we're already in a recession the economy is still strong people are still getting paid people still have jobs they might not be the best jobs people might be struggling but it's still not what we were back in 2008 when we were facing real hardship in the economy I get it a lot of Americans are facing hardship but it could be worse and this is where the federal Reser bank is doing this Balancing Act during an election year where you got to imagine there's a lot of political pressure to keep the economy strong because well that's good for whoever's in office I don't care if you're a Democrat or Republican it's the same thing if you want to get reelected you want to have a strong economy when it comes time for your re-election and that's of course why Jamie Diamond goes back to saying that there's still risks of a hard Landing in the United States meaning there still risks of a recession in the United States although a lot of people have completely discounted this idea of any slowdown happening in the economy in the United States which brings us to number three what do you need to know if you're watching this video you're probably a little bit more financially educated you're more interested in financial education and you're interested in building your own wealth you're interested in investing maybe you've already begun investing and so the key here that you got to understand is that number one our economy goes through Cycles period our economy goes up and it goes down this has happened every decade for the last century we see Cycles like this just like we see asset Cycles we see real estate prices go up and down and up and down we see stock markets go up and down and up and down our economy also goes up and down and up and down and so what you got to understand is that no Market can go straight up or straight down forever so what that means is you want to be able to win no matter which Market you are in and that means number one you want to be able to win when markets are going up and also number two be able to find the opportunity when Market are going down but in order for that to happen you got to do three things number one is you got to be financially prepared number two is you got to be financially educated and number three is you got to understand the trends so when it comes to being prepared that means you got to have cash aside to invest now the way you invest is a different question I'm going to go over that in this video but the way you invest is really you got to have the money to invest which means you can't spend all of your money and so that means you got to control your finances have money coming in from your job or your business and then not all their money goes out and now you have this pile of cash to invest and then the way you invest is going to depend on your strategy and it depends on if you're going to invest in stocks or real estate or something else it's going to depend on whether you're Investing For Cash Flow or for growth that's where you're got to figure out your strategy I have tons of videos on my channel where I talk about how to do that the second thing is you got to be financially educated which means now how do you pick your Investments and how do you pick your investing strategy your financial education is all about now what am I investing in and how am I investing in this thing if I'm investing in real estate how how do you find a good property what are your goals how do you pick a good team how do you actually manage the property and how do you maximize your cash flow if you're investing in stocks are you investing index funds or ETFs or mutual funds are you investing individual companies are you investing your money every week are you investing your money when you find a good opportunity what is your strategy and what types of Investments are you going to be making that's what your financial education is all about again I have a lot of resources on my channel going about that you can read books on this topic you can take classes on this topic there's a lot of ways to invest in your financial education and you can also go out and do it to learn I mean you can do all of the things read books watch YouTube videos listen to podcasts and also go out to do it to build your financial education because well you got to do it investing is risky you're going to lose money at some point and don't blindly listen to a random guy on YouTube okay little disclaimer on that and number three is you got to understand the trends and this is really just understanding now which Industries you're going to be investing in because what you want to do now as an investor is you want to position your money like you're the captain of your money and you want to be sending your money where the flow is going tomorrow next year the year after that not where it was last year that's what understanding the trends is all about we do a lot of this in briefs media and Market briefs my newsletter we're try to cover what's happening that way you can stay ahead of the curve and not be the person that's behind the curve because if you're just making decisions based off what's happening in the news you've already missed it and this is where your job is to pay attention to what's happening and not be an emotional investor but rather understand the trends that way you can be a long-term investor but also be ahead of what's happening in the markets they innovated the way that they invest money and they've been able to get very good returns over the last number of years and what the CEO of Bridgewater is saying now is that the next 10 years or 15 years of the economy might not be like the last 15 years take a look when you look at the last 15 years the stars have aligned for investors it's been a tremendous period
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