저자: LarryFink · 외국인
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러시아-우크라이나 전쟁 이후 세계화 종식과 공급망 재편을 설명. 자본시장 접근은 특권이며 기업들의 제재 동참이 강력하다고 평가. 유럽은 재정지출 확대(독일 국방비 GDP 2%)로 장기적으로 긍정적이라고 봄. 단기적으로 성장 둔화와 에너지·식료품 물가 상승 압력, 공급망 재편은 인플레이션 요인이며 중앙은행 긴축은 예상보다 제한적일 것이라 언급. 장기 탈탄소 전환 가속과 EV 수요 증가 전망.
다듬은 글
welcome to the bid where we break down what's happening in the markets and explore the forces changing investing I'm Samara Cohen Chief investment officer for ETFs and index Investments of Black Rock and your host today over the past few weeks the Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused a huge humanitarian issue and sent Ripple effects across the global economy on this episode we're joined by our co-founder chairman and CEO of Black Rock Larry fin to get his perspective on what's Happening and how it's affecting the global markets please keep in mind we're recording this on Friday March 11th as the conflict enters its third week Larry welcome back to the bid hey kmar it's great to be here Larry the world has changed dramatically over the past two weeks and although the world has unfortunately seen conflict and Wars break out over the past 20 years this one feels different why do you think that is well we've actually had many wars in the world over the last 20 years and last 30 years but this is different because we have a principal nuclear power invading a neighbor and in addition this nuclear power Russia actually invoked the words nuclear as a offensive moment and it was unprovoked we are witnessing the horrific actions of a military war we are witnessing each moment the tragedies that are occurring throughout Ukraine the humanistic tragedy of two and a half million migrants of which half of them now are children the displacement of millions of people it's threatening the psyche of the world in so many ways because the world benefited probably as much as any major geopolitical issue when the Soviet Union broke apart it was the ending of the Cold War and we were able to have this enormous peace dividend so the peace dividend is over over the last 30 odd years now corporations worldwide expanded geopolitically and expanded in different geographies we built this whole Foundation of globalization we built the Global Capital markets but the foundation of how we constructed the global model is now over it's broken down now we're trying to reassess what does it mean for the future we don't have enough answers yet because we don't know the outcome how do we move forward as companies as countries I've been on calls with many CEOs today and yesterday and every day since the invasion and I'm hearing from Fear to concern but most universally is this uncertainty what does it mean what does it mean for globalization let's talk a little bit more about your point on global Capital markets Russia was given access to global Capital markets as the world emerged from the cold war and you know now Russia is pursuing a traditional War but the response of the capital markets is anything but traditional so what are your thoughts on the markets well as I wrote in my CEO letter earlier this year I stated that access to the global Capital markets is a privilege it is not a right I think this is being exemplified by the behaviors of the private sector we've created in two weeks an enormous change and we're witnessing now that an economic War can be as folsome as any imagination could ever achieve this economic war is not something that one should take lightly it changes the future of Russia and I don't know how we reverse this it is in many ways a really important statement to see how corporations are really embracing stakeholder capitalism here because so many companies have been bombarded by questions by their employees by their clients by different customers worldwide what are you doing about this and the behaviors of the private sector have been just as broad impactful as the governmental sanctions so when you think about from the government sanctions to the impact by the private sector of the abandonment or cessation of business in Russia it really does show the power of the capital markets now denying Capital it shows the power of I would say capitalism we are going to expect to see in every first quarter result by many companies that they're going to have an impairment charge from the abandonment of Russia it's a one-time thing so it's recalibrating a lot of companies I applaud the fortitude of management teams of companies and Boards in these actions I think this just really shows the power of one capitalism the power of the global Capital markets but importantly the power of capitalism focusing on their stakeholders this is a global economic War but the main theater of war is actually happening in Europe what will be the impact for Global growth but more specifically European economic growth what you're seeing is the economic response that is so immediate and so quick and I think it's going to be so impactful and I think this is a reminder to every country as it is a reminder of every company access to Capital is a privilege not a right in the short run it's obviously quite impactful on the negative side consumers are going to be feeling the pain of rising energy costs and Rising food costs but finally I am optimistic about what it means for Europe Samar post Invasion we've seen total changes of behavior throughout Europe the unification of Europe feels more real right now than it did before Germany has announced they're going to raise a defense spending to 2% of GDP this is actually what the Americans asked for a few years ago under President Trump hopefully other parts of Europe will be advancing their moving towards more Renewables especially in parts of Italy where sun is pretty prevalent there and so all of this means more fiscal spending more deficit spending and I look at this as a real net positive and so in the short run we are going to have slowing Global economies but in the long run it's going to be offset by Rising fiscal stimulus again as we witnessed during the co year how much fiscal stimulus we saw to stabilize the global economy after a couple shocks in the economy and negative GDP I think we have a number of years of recalibrating what this all means but the Europeans really have been quite aggressive and reasserting themselves to be less reliant on Russia they're reasserting themselves through fiscal stimulus and I think you're going to see monetary policy be much more muted than we thought prior to the invasion Larry you mentioned the impact for companies in the private sector who are taking actions beyond the government sanctions how do you think what's unfolding now adds to the pre-existing concerns over supply chain issues do you think that there's a growing concern to watch around Supply chains I think this is going to be the biggest question that is going to be discussed the biggest issue that we're going to be discussing we are refocusing on our dependencies in Russia I think the whole world is focusing on dependencies now the dependencies to China as a manufacturing and assembly I also believe the world's refocusing on the dependencies on the US dollar I've heard from a couple Finance ministers should the world be this dependent on one currency and so I actually believe we are going to reassess everything a lot of this is more of an anti-global position but let's get back to the supply chains I think as companies reassess dependencies they're going to be saying that maybe we are too dependent on one place maybe we're too dependent on China or something else and they're going to be reanalyzing their supply chains I talked to one CEO today that has systematically been mitigating their dependencies on China and they've been moving more and more Supply chains into Mexico and he said now our biggest source of manufacturing is Mexico than China so we're seeing this full recalibration and this recalibration is going to really determine how we go forward Larry I think related to supply chains you used the word deglobalization a couple minutes ago can you say a little bit more about that path and what you mean well as I said with a peace divident of the end of the Cold War we were able to build a Global Network and globalization was the key I would say economic policies that people expanded and built and globalization actually had many positive benefits right now it's not being discussed more human beings were lifted out of poverty over the last 32 years in any period of time ever and that was because of globalization we learned from Co that Supply chains were maybe only good in very efficient times we learned that many Supply Chains would not function as well with Co hit a country and they had lockdown and they could not have the workers in a factory or in the shipping component so we witnessed huge supply chain issues now much of the supply chain issues we witnessed was as people were more in remote working more and more people change their consumption patterns away from Services we traveled less we went to fewer restaurants During the period of time but we spent our money on capital goods and so much of the supply chain issues was we miscalculated how much demand there was going to be on so many products I think now with looking at the dependencies of Russia focusing on the dependencies on other parts of the world whether it's a China or somewhere else I think there's another reassessment of those Supply chains and does it mean a de globalization probably it does it means you know when you talk about on shuring factories or nearshoring factories that in itself is a de globalizing process and so because of the rise of nationalism the rise of geopolitical tensions and the need to have better Supply chains it means everybody's bringing them close to where demand is and that is a big reversal in how businesses built their platforms and businesses and so a lot of that is being reassessed and it does on the margin mean less globalization does this rewiring of the global economy that you're describing impact your assessment or the CEOs and policy makers that you're talking to their assessment of inflationary pressures here and how businesses and consumers will navigate them you know soar post World War II United States Economic Policy was based on consumerism and that was coupled with globalization and so we were able to maybe move manufacturing somewhere we were able to provide cheaper products more products to more Americans I would say sometime in the last 10 years that whole Foundation of providing the cheapest products to more Americans has now been reconsidered jobs are now considered to be more important than cheaper prices I think I think that is inflationary by itself I've always said we are going to move to a decarbonized world without new technology that is highly inflationary we are now witnessing that today this is why I've always been saying a transition from hydrocarbons to something more sustainable has to be done in a fair and just way and quite frankly even before the Russian invasion many countries were focusing on Supply mitigation versus demand mitigation and so we were witnessing r Energy prices even before the Russian invasion all of these are more incrementally inflationary and what's much more inflationary would be if one has to now re footprint Supply chains maybe to a higher cost area but it's near with more consistency with more certainty all of this leads to higher inflation and that's one of my bigger worries today now in the long run though as we build out these redundant Supply chains as we become less dependent in theory this actually at the back end could be deflationary and a supply shock that we're witnessing is hard for any Central Bank to mitigate so if you believe that much of the inflation is because of Supply shock you're going to probably expect fewer central banks tightenings even in this inflationary environment because that Supply shock ultimately can be worked out maybe it's three years or four years or five years but it can be worked out and let's be clear higher energy prices accelerates the demand for decarbonization accelerates the need for Ev vehicles and so that's a way you mitigate long-term demand through that process and so all of this is equalizing we may be in a period of time a higher inflation that is going to be very damaging for those who least could afford it higher inflation is destructive for the entire emerging world this is why I've always said it has to be fair and just and right now we're not in a fair and just period of time Larry thank you so much for your time and for your insights and for joining us today on the bid I want to thank everybody for listening these are terrible times what we're witnessing in these humanitarian disasters but we all should be hopeful that as human beings we do find Solutions and this has not abated my long-term optimism that we find Solutions we mitigate problems and through that process we have a better future thank you Larry thanks Samara this information is for informational purposes only and is prepared by black rock is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast research or investment advice and is not a 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