US Economy Is Doing Extremely Well, Don't Think The Fed Needs To Lower Rates: Ed Yardeni | CNBC TV18

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미국 경제가 매우 양호해 연준이 금리를 굳이 내릴 필요가 없었지만 인하는 증시에 호재. S&P500 연말 목표는 5,800 유지, 연준 인하 후 랠리(melt up) 확률은 20%→30%로 상향이나 기본 시나리오는 아님. 11월 미국 대선은 접전 시 리스크, 한쪽 완승(민주/공화 스윕)도 증시에 부정적이며 교착(분할정부)이 최선. 지정학(이스라엘-이란, 헤즈볼라 드론 사건)과 국내 정치가 주요 리스크. 금 강세는 러시아 제재 이후 중국의 금 매입 때문. 연준 추가 인하는 11월/12월 필요 없다는 입장.

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01. welcome back here with us on Bazar Morning Call let's get into our first conversation on the show today we have Ed yini joining in to talk about the global setup which has been looking fairly buoyant no problems over there uh Mr y good to have you on the show thanks very much for taking this call so the US market I mean it continues to Rocket higher Propel higher and gold is doing its own thing oil is crashing so very dramatic moves across different asset classes what do you make of it well look U much of this depends uh on what's going on in the United States particularly with the Federal Reserve uh and of course with the geopolitical situation I think what we're seeing with gold especially is a geopol issue ever since the United States put sanctions on Russia I think the Chinese have been buying gold and so I think that explains why gold is doing so well uh and here in terms of why our stock markets doing so well the economy is doing extremely well and it's not even clear that the FED needs to lower interest rates but it did and that's bullish for the stock market uh got it Ed by the way I don't know if you saw that latest Stanley dren an interview on Bloomberg and he was he's been on The View that maybe the 50 basis points was a mistake and you know it was an interesting one but what do you make of the two weeks to us election Zed do you think uh bedding markets all favor Trump now uh you think it's positive Dollar positive eels yeah I don't I don't really think we can go with any of these IND years I think it's going to be a very close uh election uh my concern is that actually a risk for the market if it's too close and there's some uh conflict about who actually won that would not be good for the markets the other possibility is it'll be a sweep for the Democrats or for the Republicans that would not be good for the markets the best outcome would be a gridlock situation where either Trump or Harris is in the white house but they uh don't have the uh house and the Senate that they that they still can't get all their policies through the problem with both candidates is that they don't really care about deficits and they don't care about the inflationary consequen of their policies I think that's where the risk is in the market domestic politics and geopolitics are the main risks for the markets the domestic economy is doing fine I don't think the FED really needs to lower interest rates anymore I I think I discussed this before I'm in the non andun Camp I don't think we need a rate cut November or December I recall you saying that you're in the camp that believes that maybe we don't get another rate cut this year but what about on the S&P 500 know we have been chatting all through the year and I think you had a target of around 5,800 we're already trading above those levels and the S&P 500 I think is on a six we winning streak where do you think we'll end the year a bit of uh you know should we see a melt up so to call it should we breach for 6,000 levels plus yeah we we've been talking about the possibility of a melt up but it hasn't been our most likely scenario but we may change that opinion I mean uh when the FED cut the FED funds rate by 50 basis points we actually raised the odds of a melt up from 20% to 30% we're right now staying with 5800 we think yes sure that and that would be by year end uh that doesn't mean that the market couldn't continue to move higher here to 6,000 or even a bit above 6,000 but as I said I think we're entering a period here where there's going to be a lot of geopolitical and domestic political uncertainty as we saw in the headlines uh hasbalah sent a drone to assassinate the prime minister of Israel and meanwhile Israel is considering what they're going to retaliate against Iran so there's a lot of geopolitical risk and at the same time as I indicated the the domestic political situation could be quite unsettled even once the election is uh complete yeah and for for now at least the equity Market is not looking at these risks at all it's only focused on the economy which is doing quite okay like you said Mr yini thank you for joining in let's see how this plays out appreciate you being with us on the show this morning all right that's the global setup no problems over there it's all about earnings