Comfortable With The Current Rates, Don't Think We Need Interest Rates To Come Down: Ed Yardeni

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Yardeni는 연준이 올해 남은 기간(11·12월)에 금리를 더 인하하지 않을 것이라고 예측한다. 현재 경제가 연 3% 수준으로 견조하고 금리 수준에도 문제가 없다고 본다. 연준이 생각하는 중립금리(약 2.9%)보다 실제로는 더 높을 것(약 4%)이라 주장한다. 채권시장 금리 상승도 이 관점을 뒷받침한다고 말한다. 증시는 올해 초 기대한 6~7회 인하에 못 미쳤음에도 사상 최고치이며, 경기 호조 속 추가 인하는 밸류에이션을 더 끌어올릴 필요가 없다고 본다.

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01. all right well let's welcoming Ed yini president at yini research with what he he made of things over the last few sessions saided good uh good morning great to have you with us here thanks for joining us uh as always should we pay any attention to people like Bostic Etc last night saying well they'd prefer a pause in November or you think we should just go with a broad thing that rates are now headed lower maybe the first one was was the deepest but uh we are going to get Cuts uh you know over the next many months yeah well I'm kind of biased quite honestly I'm uh predicting none and done I'm predicting that the FED is done for the rest of the year that there will not be a rate cut in November and December and apparently from what I understand that's a fairly contrary position uh but I was therefore delighted to hear bosk realistically state that maybe there won't be a cut in November uh simply put the econom is uh doing extremely well the economy has actually been quite hot and the risk is that the FED um is heating up o over stimulating an economy that's already doing quite well and the other area of agreement with uh this Outlook is the bond market the bond yield has increased from basically 3.6% uh when the FED cut by 50 basis points to over 4% so the bond market too seems to be signaling that uh maybe the FED um is too far ahead of the easing curve here okay none and done at least for this calendar year uh Mr yini morning so how many next year for calendar year 2025 in terms of rate cuts and secondly your expectation from the Press briefing tomorrow in China well look I I think that when it comes to ruts um I'm pretty comfortable with rates are where they are right now the reason I'm comfortable with that because the economy seems to be comfortable it's you know as as we know the econom has been growing about 3% uh at a annual rate over the past few Quarters on a year-over-year basis is up 3% and that's without any decrease in interest rates whatsoever so I don't really have a problem with this level of interest rates but as you pointed out the FED does seem to be committed or wants to lower interest rates they have this idea that there's some sort of neutral interest rate that is uh lower than where we are today they in their summary of economic projections they seem to suggest it's 2.9% uh there's no way to get an accurate assessment of what the magical neutral rate is uh but I would say it's higher than that maybe 4% hi Ed good morning good to see you when Ed if you're not going to get any more rate Cuts if you're right in bang on and you know uh what Bostic told us overnight as well comes through then what about the equity markets because the global Equity markets are clearly factoring in rate cuts that are coming in there so how do you expect Global equities to react well remember at the beginning of this year the markets were expecting six to seven rate Cuts we we didn't understand that and we we were talking about maybe two maybe at most three rate Cuts so far we've had one that was the equivalent of what the market expected would be two we had 50 basis points instead of 225 basis points and and the markets at an all-time record high uh notwithstanding the fact that uh you know the cons the concern was that the economy might be weak and we would need many more rate Cuts I mean this is not a bad trade right to get better than expected economic growth uh and sacrifice uh lower interest rates the market can live with that that's that's better earnings and valuations are already stretched I don't think we really need interest rates to come down and push valuation multiples even higher no I mean Ed I think you've got it uh you you've been contrary all year through and you've been right I think right in this beginning as we came in uh so far so good absolutely and as you said I mean you are uh it's it's against consensus it's not consensus at all so you're in the non-consensus zone but you got the bond market which agrees with you so I think that is what matters it does yeah so so we'll see but thank you very much Ed great to speak with you pleas and appreciate your time on CNBC TV8