저자: Parkev Tatevosian, CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
미국 선거 이후 반도체 종목이 하락했는데, 데이터센터 건설 지역에서 반대 성향 정치인이 당선되면서 건설 승인이 늦어질 것이라는 우려가 원인으로 꼽혔다. 데이터센터가 줄면 관련 부품 수요도 감소하기 때문이다. 진행자는 이를 매수 기회로 보고 저평가 종목 네 곳을 소개했다. 가치 평가는 선행 주가수익비율 등 시장 배수와 현금흐름할인 모델을 활용해 적정 가치와 시장가를 비교하는 방식이다. 첫째, 퀄컴은 적정 가치 282달러, 시장가 165달러로 약 71%의 상승 여력이 있다고 계산했다. 데이터센터 진출은 긍정 요인이나 주력인 스마트폰 등 소비자 전자 산업 둔화가 우려로 꼽혔다. 둘째, 브로드컴은 적정 가치 523달러, 시장가 326달러로 제시됐다. 데이터센터 건설이 전면 취소되기보다 천천히 진행될 가능성이 크다는 시각이다. 셋째, 마이크론은 적정 가치 1,556달러, 시장가 799달러로 소개됐으며, 두 분기 연속 80% 이상의 영업이익률과 장기 공급 계약이 근거로 제시됐다.
다듬은 글
Semiconductor stocks are falling following the results of the United States election. Certain politicians in the regions where data centers are being built, and who oppose their construction, have won their elections. So investors fear a slowdown in approvals for the construction of data centers, and , of course, if fewer of them are built, then fewer components will be needed for them .
So, some semiconductor stocks are falling, and I actually see this as a buying opportunity, so I'm going to highlight four undervalued stocks that you can buy as early as November. I want to thank Motley Fool for sponsoring this video. Visit fool.com/parkev for the 10 best deals to buy now. The first underrated semiconductor company I'll talk about is Qualcomm.
But before I get into the details about Qualcomm, let me tell you how I determine whether a stock is undervalued. I evaluate the company comprehensively, using market multiples such as the forward price-to- earnings ratio, and also calculate fair value using a discounted cash flow model. This is exactly what you see on the screen.
I estimated how much free cash flow I thought Qualcomm would generate from now on and into the long term, and discounted those flows to today's date, because money in the future is worth less to me than money in my pocket now. There is a time value factor and the riskiness of future cash flows , so I apply a discount rate to all of these future flows.
This calculation gives me an estimate of fair value, which is the price I think the stock is worth today. I compare this to the current market price to determine whether the stock is undervalued or if it is selling at a discount. So, with that in mind, I calculated the fair value of Qualcomm shares at $282.
The current market price is $165, which in my opinion leaves Qualcomm stock with about 71% upside potential. Of course, the most optimistic factor for Qualcomm is its expected entry into the data center segment. The company has signed several deals with hyperscalers, including Meta Platforms and Amazon, and is poised to start generating revenue in 2027, which could boost earnings and free cash flow while offsetting rising business risks .
What worries me most is the decline in the consumer electronics industry for Qualcomm. 2026 brought higher prices for components such as memory and storage, which became a hindrance for the consumer electronics sector, such as smartphones. Qualcomm derives a significant portion of its revenue and profits from the smartphone industry, so difficulties in this area are certainly bad news for the company.
However, I believe the upside potential outweighs these risks, and Qualcomm is an undervalued semiconductor stock that investors can add to their portfolios right now, in November . I already have Qualcomm shares in my portfolio and am interested in purchasing more. The next undervalued stock I'll highlight is Broadcom.
I calculated the fair value of this stock at $523 a share, while the current market price is $326. Broadcom is one of the semiconductor companies whose shares are falling following the results of the United States election. Qualcomm, or I should have said Broadcom, shares fell 1.83% the day after the election results were announced.
Broadcom helps companies like Alphabet develop their own chips for data centers, and if those centers are built more slowly, then of course Broadcom's sales could grow more slowly. But the good news is that they will likely just be implemented more slowly, rather than being canceled altogether. And given the existing constraints in the semiconductor industry, the slowdown is not as critical as it might seem at first glance.
The construction of these data centers was already slowed by energy shortages, component shortages, and resistance from local communities . So new challenges from leaders coming to power are unlikely to significantly slow down a process that is already slowing down. In my opinion, slower construction is more responsible and balanced, and this is something I have been saying for several quarters now.
I own many hyperscalers. I own shares of Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta Platform. And many of them, in fact three out of four , are already generating negative free cash flow, and there are growing concerns about the sustainability of such investment levels. Therefore, reducing and distributing investments, in my opinion, is a more balanced step and not necessarily a bad thing.
I already have Broadcom shares in my portfolio and I am still interested in increasing that position. Micron is another semiconductor company whose stock has fallen as a result of the election. Micron shares fell 6.6%, more than most other semiconductor companies, as Micron is one of the biggest beneficiaries of this data center boom.
Micron has reported operating profit margins of over 80% for two consecutive quarters. I've been following companies professionally for almost eight years, analyzing hundreds of firms and thousands of quarterly reports, and I've never seen a company report an operating margin of over 80%—not once , until Micron did it recently, two quarters in a row.
Additionally, Micron's forecast for next quarter indicates that operating margins will again be 80% or higher. Component prices, the average selling price of components, have increased by triple digits, and management has said that everything is sold out by 2028. The company signs long-term agreements with customers who are now urgently trying to secure supplies for many years to come, whereas previously these companies and customers purchased products for immediate needs rather than planning for many years.
This long-term planning reduces risk for Micron because the company more effectively understands customer needs and the timing of those needs, which reduces risks in research and development. This reduces production risks for Micron and allows for more effective business planning. I'm not saying Micron stock is no longer cyclical, but at least the risks of overbuilding, overpricing, and creating products that customers may not need are somewhat mitigated by long-term deals.
I calculated the fair value of Micron shares at 1,556, and today they can be bought for less than 800— $799 per share. And last but not least: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, which in my opinion is the best manufacturing company in the world, period. Regardless of the industry, I consider TSMC to be the best manufacturer, period .
For decades, the company has demonstrated results that surpass any other competitor. I calculated a fair value of $566, and today Taiwan Semiconductor shares can be bought for $395. It is also one of the companies that fell in price as a result of the election. At the time of writing, it had fallen by 2.5%.
Of course, one of the biggest risk factors for TSMC is geopolitical tensions between the US and China, as well as China's claims to Taiwan. This geopolitical risk has already created obstacles, forcing Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company to diversify its manufacturing base. The company is adding manufacturing capacity in the U.S., Europe and Japan, and management has said those facilities will be less profitable than factories at home .
Therefore, management forecasts a decline in gross margin from 58% to 53% over the next few years. However, this margin squeeze has not yet occurred as demand for the company's products continues to outstrip supply and high capacity utilization offsets lower profitability from these new diversified facilities .
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is the only one of these four companies that is not yet in my portfolio, but I am definitely interested in adding this position. We'll learn a lot more about the AI industry and semiconductor stocks in general when Nvidia, a giant among them, reports its quarterly results after the markets close on November 17.
Nvidia is one of the largest positions in my portfolio, and the only reason I didn't recommend it in this video is because I've already recommended Nvidia in many other videos. I wanted to provide a few other names in addition to Nvidia. I will be going live to cover Nvidia's results as they report for the quarter, and it will be available exclusively to channel sponsors.
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