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you wake up this morning and there's a 200 Page document that we can't seem to get that says that there should be a restriction on AI uh chips for all but 18 countries you've got the premier CEO of AI Jensen Wong going around the world talking about Sovereign Ai and then you have a document again it's a proposal that call that just basically says look there's only 18 countries that should be able to get this that's going to send the whole complex down uh it is absurd in the sense that it no one spoke to it no one they didn't give it to any CEO to even comment on it is the last gasp of an Administration that basically threw a grenade into the whole complex yeah although very much unclear isn't it Jim that a lot of it won't be reversed potentially under the new Administration or different I suspect all of it will be although it is it is it is potentially tough on China I mean a lot of it is designed obviously around our defense so to speak in the larger context given and the threats that AI could pose in the wrong hands and the fact that we always want to be ahead in our development from any of our adversaries uh I mean I think that is right that's the at the basics of why they done what they've done isn't it yes but I mean 18 friendly countries let's say there are 120 countries that might want it uh there means there's a lot of countries besides China that now get excluded uh you'll see this uh down a lot the stock has been very weak you know I think Nvidia is terrific but you combine this and then Carl you've got some numbers that say that Apple's going to be weaker worst the US government chose to medal in the semiconduct your world in a way that defeats so much of what Jens Sam Wong the co of Nvidia is trying to accomplish a series of restrictions came out this weekend that put limits on the number of gpus Nvidia can sell to about 18 friendly Nations look we all get the game we're trying to stop China from getting as many Advanced ships as possible I I I I admit that that's okay but this 200 Page set of rules has become the Hallmark of the B administration's attempt to treat our businesses as the enemy nvidia's cooperated with the federal government every step of the way Jensen Wong has spent a huge amount of time going around the globe though trying to work with all the friendly governments not just 18 to help them create Sovereign AI he knows that America could control everything that's how powerful we are but he wants to empower other nations so they don't get subsumed by us he doesn't want to be the Ugly American who dictates the things the way we did during the Cold War it's one of the best initiators he's worked on and now the government's effectively ended it by Fiat look you know that I'm no fan of the Chinese government but the US needs friends long as the Oldman ambassador of Goodwill this move is embarrassing shortsighted demeaning and ultimately A fitting Coda to Administration that seems to have it in for business at every turn unless it's clean energy of course nvidia's stock has posted another jaw-dropping year of gains up 171.200000 and yet the tech giant is suffering loss after loss in 2025 with no clear pathway to regaining 2024 numbers as of yet what caused Nvidia to Surge in 2024 and fall so hard in 2025 is the AI Buzz dying down or are people losing hope in Blackwell changing the AI scene once again as these questions Loom large we'll delve deeper into nvidia's impressive performance and the influential figures behind its Triumph welcome back to invest ocracy value has been better outside of the USA it's been better if you didn't take an industry bet and it's been better if you didn't short a ton of Nvidia um so if value holds its own when it's not having a great time and everything else we do works that can be a beautiful thing does Nidia enter your portfolio at all in the Quant process it's it enters as a potential stock to own or short and this will tell give you some insight into quantitative management I don't know if we're long or short right cuz there's just so many positions at all times I'm going to yeah so many positions that are all small um so I I often joke though this hardly ever happens that the only time I know about an individual position is either something very bad has happened or very good no they don't even bother me with that or I'm going on TV and sometimes I I cheat and look up but I didn't look up in Nvidia I would guess it looks expensive um but looks pretty high quality times earnings or so yeah uh but that's not the whole process um for instance profitability how much money you make uh how much money you make on given the size of your Equity or some other scaler that you can make it relevant we we love that um in true bubbles people often hate low prices and don't care about profitability because they're only paying for dreams of future profitability so we don't enjoy those but a year where the really cheap multiple stuff doesn't do well but really profitable stuff does great that can be a great year for us what sets Nvidia apart is its ability to consistently exceed wall Street's quarterly targets achieving Revenue beats that sparked investor confidence and Market admiration for instance in Q4 of 2024 Nvidia reported revenues of 22.1 billion soaring past the anticipated 2.62 billion a resounding 7.2% beat however 2025 has not been entirely devoid of challenges Nvidia enjoyed early gains with announcements from Microsoft of an $80 billion investment in AI data center capabilities as nvidia's gpus are crucial to Advanced AI systems this seemed a Surefire Avenue for growth yet macroeconomic factors have cast a shadow over these plan sended to Christina Parts us now for a look at Nvidia that stock is falling in today's session as we said at the very outset today Christina Well you have the company's Powerhouse customers we're talking Microsoft aw Google and meta they're reportedly hitting some snags with nvidia's latest Blackwell chips they're dealing with overheating issues and glitches and the information is reporting some might actually scale back their orders not great timing when these Cloud Giants are also racing to build their own AI supercomputers HSBC just weighed in about a warning about Supply challenges they're saying these issues could drag on through early 2026 and they're skeptical about Nvidia keeping up its impressive streak of beating revenue forecast by $2 billion each quarter which brings up the question of sustainability and then there's another twist remember those new Biden Administration rules about exporting AI chips while analysts at Wells Fargo Bank of America wed Bush they all think it might not actually stick and here's why there's an unusually long 120-day comment period which means if Trump uh once his administration goes forward they could potentially revise these restrictions right now about 15% of nvidia's total revenue is exposed to China but that portion has declined just over the last few quarters yes it's a little bit higher compared to Q2 but they have said it's dein clining so between those technical hiccups the supply chain concerns and Regulatory uncertainty nvidia's definitely got a quite a few balls in the air right now and that's why the stock is down 2 and a half% welcome back to overtime we got some news on Nvidia the European Union commenting on the Biden administration's further restriction of AI chip exports news that hit Nvidia shares in the regular session and that Nvidia itself blasted earlier today the EU saying in a joint statement in part we are concerned about the US measures adding we believe it is also in the US economic and security interest that the EU buys Advanced AI chips from the US without limitations the statement adds that the EU has shared its concerns with the Biden Administration and looks forward to engaging constructively with the incoming Trump Administration the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported unexpected job growth in December which heightened concerns about inflation hinting at possible stock market volatility further compounding difficulties rumors of expanded us restrictions on AI chip exports to China and other rival Nations pose threats to nvidia's International op actually saw shares a little higher in the morning maybe not by a lot but it certainly wasn't giving back um the the the pullback that we saw later in the day there were a lot of the tech stocks and other big High Flyers that pulled back though after we got stronger than expected jobs numbers just in terms of what the BLS had in terms of jobs openings those jolts numbers that had people suspecting that maybe the FED is going to be more reluctant to cut rates anytime soon and and that that caused all of these big High Flyers to pull back so do you think the pullback in Nvidia shares yesterday was more related to what Jensen Wong did or didn't say or just more related to the overall idea of watching the Federal Reserve and seeing how the econom is doing I mean I think both of those play a role um I think there were also very high expectations around the keynote at CES and you know CES is a trade show oriented around consumer and automotive and there were some really important uh developments that came out of the keynote around those markets but data center is 85% of the revenue and I think you know may have been expectations that people wanted to hear more about that um so I think you have some some of those issues but uh you know overall this is still a company in a very strong product cycle and data center wasn't the focus here uh it's investor Focus but you know it's still very strong so I think it's it's a combination of some of the market issues that you talked about as well as maybe some expectations issues around the trade show but there was really nothing negative to take away from it yeah what could he say in terms of the data center that the street would really like to hear I know that the revenue is expected for the year the fiscal year that ends uh this month to come in at 113 billion ramping all the way up to north of 200 billion uh by the fiscal year that ends in January of 2027 what what do people want to hear on that front well you know expectations are high uh I think we're two months into the Blackwell cycle the new products that they just started shipping so I think to think that we were going to get any color on you know gb300 or incremental blackw products was was prob just not going to happen this wasn't the forum for that anyway uh and I think so from a product standpoint I think we know everything that we need to know um from a a revenue standpoint you're facing a little bit of a transition here uh that you have black oil demand is very good and you've heard these comments from Jensen in the past on on CNBC talking about you know the level of blackw demand being insane and he didn't really repeat those comments but I think the issue that you're dealing with is blackw demand is really strong but it's Supply constrained and Hopper the sort of Legacy product still is is the largest portion of that data center business and so I think there we'll still have a couple quarters here where there's meaningful upside but I think the real upside is kind of into the back half of the year when you start getting that kind of full-blown Blackwell ramp so I think you know people would like to hear that uh and I think they did hear that in some sense but I think you know they're they're trying to avoid those kind of really strong statements about Blackwell because it's not the main driver of the quarter uh I think that's the combination of black and Hopper so still quite optimistic about how this plays out but I certainly see the upside being stronger in the second half of the Year despite these headwinds Invidia remains a promising contender in the stock market Arena its current position reflects a slight dip with shares down approximately 1.5% year-to date in 2025 yet the foundations it has laid suggest resilience and potential for impressive rebound analyst forecasts continue to favor substantial growth driven by nvidia's Innovative Technologies and strategic Partnerships the question remains however do you think there is any near future upside for the Nvidia stock
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