저자: 미상 · 외국인
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S&P500은 390~400 박스권, 400 돌파 시 상승 추세 전환 가능성 제시. 나스닥100(QQQ)은 312 돌파 시 상승, 다우는 327 돌파 전까지 약세 구간. 러셀2000은 170 지지 회복 후 177 저항 관찰. 비트코인은 28,000 저항 부근에서 거래량 감소, 25,000 재테스트 가능성. 구글·아마존·마이크로소프트·애플은 주요 지지·저항 기준으로 상승 관점 유지, 엔비디아는 274 저항 거부로 단기 조정 가능성. 테슬라는 갭 메우기 후 197 저항 향방 관찰. 시장 공포 속 '고통 매매(pain trade)'로 상승 가능성 언급하나 주요 지지 이탈 시 경계 필요.
다듬은 글
the market shakes off the fear and closes in the green on Friday is there too much fear for the market to go lower riday spy was up 0.66 percent and intraday we were trading down there at some critical support around spy 390 and we did see price action closing back over the 200 daily moving average for the second day in a row so right now I still view this as a very simple trading range of spy 393 to 400 and if you're bearish you're using a risk level at 400 and if you're trying to be bullish or using the risk level at 390 to 393 this is the range we need to break to see the next leg in the market and above 400 we're looking for the gap for that 408 and Below 390 we're going to be looking for a retest of the lows around 380.
so there's a very simple trade plan from here you're either above or below 390 or 400 and you're trading the range while price action is bouncing in between both of them the next critical resistance before 400 is going to be the zone between 396 and 398 which is also where the 50 EMA is and if price action can get back over all of the moving averages the Bulls will have the advantage of a bull Trend one spy breaks to a higher high above 400.
that's why if you're bearish you need to use that as your risk level because if the Bulls get the break out of the higher high this is going to be a bull trend of higher lows and higher highs which could take us to much higher prices on the NASDAQ 100 triple cues we were up 0.37 on Friday after that very strong 307.
the queues are stuck in a range between 306 and 312 and this is going to be a very bullish breakout above 312 because we do have the Gap to fill all the way up there at 322 and a double bottom price circuit at 327 because we did double bottom off 260 above the neckline at 294. you're instantly getting a lot more risk off if we break down below 305 because it means we could be coming all the way back down to 300 but as you can tell if you're looking at the price action and these moving averages we do have a is going to be possible the triple cues are trying to March higher into the 320s so in the triple cues trade with the direction of the trend because the big Tech sector is still very bullish and you have very well defined risk levels below in the Dow Jones we were up point four six percent on Friday and the Dow Jones is still looking very weak because of the weak financial sector and we still do have the bear Trend as long as we're trading below 324 to 327.
the bull breakout will be above 327 which could take us back to 335 but this is going to be a lot of resistance at these levels because we do have the downtrend the Dow Jones is lower highs and lower lows while we're below 335 with that critical resistance at 327. downside critical support will be 317 because if that breaks we're looking for a quick trip down to fill the Gap at 311.
on the Russell 2000 iwm ETF we were up point nine percent on Friday and we did get the balance off of the bear Market resistance trend line of support at 168 and we're back Above This support level at 170 which is the lows from December from here the Bulls need to push all the way back to resistance at 177 and break above that to go close the gap at 181 and then from there we'll be looking for the possibility of another lower high in this downtrend now if we break down below 160 we're looking for a retest of the September low which is down here right around 164 and below that we get full-blown capitulation in the small caps on the arcade ETF we were down 0.19 on Friday and as you can tell I do have the arrow drawn from the double top projection at 40.5 which could take us down to close the gap below 32 on a breakdown below the neckline at 36.
now don't just assume we have to go lower we need to break that support at 36 so that's your critical support level in The Arc ETF if you're trying to stay bullish if we break below 36 it's going to start being very impulsive selling to fill the Gap and you' 40.5 and we're also going to have strong resistance around 39.
on the Vex we were down 3.93 on Friday and the vix got absolutely crushed from 25 all the way back down below 22 but we still have an elevated vix of volatility while the vix is above 20. we're only getting a lot more bullish if we can Crush down below 20 so stay cautious while the vix is elevated on bitcoin we're currently down about point three eight percent in Bitcoin is still struggling around this resistance at 28 000 and we are seeing volume dropping off so there is a very good possibility we're going to come all the way back down to retest the breakout at 25 000.
in the event we get the bull break out above 28 000 the next price Target higher and critical resistance will be 30 000. on Google stock we were down point one five percent and as you can tell Google is still bullish with all the pricey action and the moving averages and we're still closing above a very positively sloping 5 EMA now we are getting a little too far extended away from the 20 daily moving average which is all the way down there right around 97 but overall Google is making a lot of bullish momentum to go close the gaps at 110 and 117 so stay bullish as long as it's above 102.
on Amazon stock we were down point five nine percent on Friday and Amazon is sitting right here at critical support at 98 and the rising 20 daily moving average is starting to come up to push price higher which is right around 96. for that reason I think there's a good chance Amazon can Bounce from anywhere between 96 to 98 all the way back up to close above critical resistance at 102 and then start marching higher towards our price targets at 1 9 and 115.
I'm wrong if Amazon starts breaking down below support levels at 96 and 94 and then we're likely coming back down towards 90 and 86. on Microsoft stock we're up 1.05 and Microsoft is holding this breakout above 274 which means we are very likely going to fill the Gap just below 286. from there we can March higher to 290 and then 296 at 274.
on Nvidia stock we were down 1.52 percent as Nvidia is getting rejected from this resistance at 274 but still finding support at 267. I think there's a good chance we're coming down towards 258 and then that's going to be critical support of whether or not we get the bounce and if we do bounce I'll be looking for higher targets up here at 282.5 on Tesla stock we were down 0.94 and Tesla is very close to fully closing the Gap at 186.4 and this very likely going to happen early next week and from there we could instantly find support and start bouncing higher towards resistance at 197.
above 197 we're looking for 208 and 215 and if we break below the Gap Bill you're looking for critical support at 183 and 173 on Apple stock we were up 0.83 on Friday and I still see very little resistance in Apple stock until we get to 163 and then above that I'm looking for 170. keep in mind this is an inverse Head and Shoulders breakout above the neckline at 156 so you're staying bullish as long as we're above the critical support line right here at 156 and if we break that then you can get more cautious for a retest of the downside Target at 150.
on the financials we were down point zero six percent and the financials are finally showing signs of buyers of the dip below this critical support which was down here at 31.37 because we did finish with a buy the dip candle on Friday even though it was on very low volume this is more than likely due for a very strong counter Trend rally which I think could take it all the way up towards 33 but keep in mind you need to manage your risk because there's no guarantee that we need to get that rally I just think it's a very good chance because of this impulsive selling anytime you get impulsive selling you're usually due for a very strong counter Trend rally and I think the financials could be very close to that moment on the Industrials we're at 0.41 on Friday and we hit the price Target at 9 95 and instantly found support as buyers stepped in so just like the financials I think there is a very good chance the Industrials can start to get their counter Trend rally after reaching the double top price Target the healthcare sector was up 1.39 with a very bullish engulfing candle and closing back over a lot of these moving averages so there's a good chance the healthcare sector is going to try to push back up to resistance at 129 to 130.
the energy sector was up 0.39 on Friday continuing lower to fill our Gap at 76 and the next Gap lower will be at 73 so stay bearish in the energy sector as long as we're trading below 81. so jumping back over to the S P 500 as you can tell this is a very fearful Market but we are seeing price action climbing the wall of worry as there's just too much fear and we're more than likely going to see the pain trade the pain trade is when everybody Stacks up to one side of the trade and everybody is bearish we're more than likely going to see the market going higher because there's just nobody in the market and if everybody is sitting in cash and has no shares to sell it's very hard to crash so stay optimistic about the possibility of a rally from here and know your critical risk levels of support or and try not to get bearish until we break down below those support levels server g etfc
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