저자: 미상 · 외국인
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FOMC 발표 후 S&P500, 나스닥, 다우, 러셀2000 모두 급락 반전. 주요 지수는 여전히 하락 추세이며 200일선(약 393) 및 주요 지지선 이탈 시 추가 하락 가능성 강조. 금융·산업·헬스케어·에너지 섹터 약세, 빅테크만 상대적 강세. 비트코인도 고점 대비 거래량 동반 매도로 하락 경계. 특정 방향을 단정하기보다 가격 레벨별 시나리오 제시.
다듬은 글
today we saw the stock market get a sharp reversal from the resistance level once we had the Drone power press conference down 1.7 and we had a full range move from the resistance at 400 to 403 we had this sharp rejection from the resistance and came all the way back down to close the gap at 394 and then some so we can now delete the lower Gap and just last night I was talking about the possibility when you have two gaps open you need to follow price action to know which Gap is going to fill first and there was a sign in the price action today when we did hit resistance that we started to roll over and we did see very impulsive selling and you can see it very clearly if you go to smaller time frames that was your indication if you were following price action that things could get out of control to the downside and of course we did see a very sharp sell-off near the end of the day so a couple of things to know is that we we hit the full trading range now between 393 up to 400 even though we did exceed the range in a little bit in both directions but we did hit the full range and overall we are still in this downtrend in spy of lower highs and lower lows while spy is below 400.
so a very simple risk level to use in spy right now is going to be the 200 daily moving average right around 393 because that is going to tell you whether or not we're seeing the Bulls or the Bears having the most strength the Bears in spy have the advantage of the trend and price action needs to be below all of the moving averages to hit the lower targets and that is exactly what we currently have so it's one of those bouncer die situations where if the Bulls cannot hold support at 393 we are likely going down towards the December lows in the 370s so you can very simply understand how a rejection here could send us to a lower low because we are in the downtrend and if you're in a downtrend you should be expecting lower highs and lower lows now in the event the Bulls do show up around 393 then you're still waiting for a break of this range between 393 and 400 and a clear break of that range should tell us the next leg in this market the break above 400 takes us up to close the gap at 408 and the breakdown below 393 is likely going to send us back down towards 385 and possibly lower so be very cautious if you are taking long trades because this is still a downtrend in spy and the fomc today did not give us the confidence and the strength we needed to see .36 percent today and the triple queues are still relatively the strongest but there is no way you can say that this daily candle is anything other than bearish this is a very sharp reversal from the high which was that resistance up there at 3 15.
we are way outside the upper Bollinger band and getting way too far overextended which was obviously going to end up being a bull trap but we went well below support on the rejection from that over-extended condition broke back down below 312 12 and came all the way back down below 307 and we're sitting right near this critical support zone between 305 and 306.
so 305 and 306 is the last support level for the Bulls in the triple cues before we come all the way back down to 300. so watch that critical support right around 305 because if we break that we're likely going to say a quick drop five dollars lower an now the tricky part about this Market is the big tech companies are still doing relatively well because they don't have exposure to those financial stocks that are getting absolutely obliterated so if the triple cues hold support at 305 or 300 and then start to bounce there is still the possibility of higher lows and higher highs because we do have the bull Trend ever since we broke back above 300.
if we break back down below 300 then obviously that's subject to change but even in the event we break down there's still the possibility in the triple cues If We Hold around this support Zone that we could still get a bounce from a higher low and then go close that Gap at 322. whether or not this is going to happen is irrelevant because we've following the price action and right now in the short term all we care about is seeing what happens once we test critical support and we know the critical resistance remains up here at 312 to 3 15.
on the Dow Jones we were down 1.67 today and the Dow Jones also had a very sharp reversal rejection from critical resistance which was that resistance up here at 327. we got rejected from the resistance and came all the way back down to close the gap at 322 and then we continued lower to close back below all of the moving averages so we have bearish price action and we still have the bear Trend we're now below critical resistance yet again because we're now back below 324 which wa get a retest of the other critical support at 317.
if we lose this support Zone at 317 where we just Bounce from it's a very quick trip to close the gap at 311. on a break above 327 we're looking a lot more bullish for a retest of the daily Highs at 3 35. on the Russell 2000 iwm ETF we were down 2.84 today in the small cap apps look absolutely horrible getting a very sharp rejection from that resistance after the dead cat bounce right there at that resistance at 177.
we got rejected from the resistance and closed the Gap below at 175 in a very powerful bear Trend so in the small caps it's balancer die from 170 because below that we're going all the way back down to the October lows in the 160s so watch critical support at 170 and below that it's a straight line drop back to retest the 52-week lows which is at much lower prices also keep in mind if we do start to balance and break 177 at any point there is a very good chance above 177 we have a quick trip to fill the Gap at 181.
on The RK ETF we were down 4.83 today and this was a very predictable moment in arcade and I talked about it just last night that if we were going to double top it was going to be right here from the resistance that we closed on yesterday obviously we couldn't guarantee that we were going to double top but it's looking a lot more likely that it's going to be a realistic possibility now with this very bearish candle from the resistance and breaking all the way back down below the support at 39.
so what we talked about last night is if we get the double top we're likely going to break this low down here at 36 and come down and fill this Gap below 32 so that looks like the highest likelihood while we're getting this bearish rejection from the resistance at 40.5 obviously something else is happening if we break above that resistance then we can start looking for the bullish possibility we're marching higher towards 43.
on the vix we were up 4.02 percent today in the vix crushed all the way down to 20 and instantly found support and spiked all the way back above 22 so it's safe to say the vix is still elevated and this is still going to be a very volatile Market remember we need to see the vix crushing below 20 before we can say that we can go into a sustainable bull Trend and right now we see the vix bouncing off of that support level on bitcoin we're currently down just over three percent and Bitcoin is starting to get a high volume selling candle from our resistance level right here at 28 thousand and we're currently trading just a smidge below the 5 EMA there's no guarantee this is going to turn into something worse but anytime you're seeing high volume selling from at 25 000.
so use critical risk at the support at 25 000 in the critical resistance right here at 28 000. on Google stock we were down 1.48 today after Google did hit our next price Target up here right around 106 and that was outside the upper Bollinger band and we did hit resistance so we did invite sellers to push price lower critical resistance is 106 because above that we should close the gap at 110 and if we get rejected and we continue lower we're looking for the critical support down here right realm 102.
below 102 we could come back down towards 98 to 96 so watch that 102 level as your critical support level if you're going long on Google stock on Amazon stock we were down 1.9 today with a perfect rejection from that critical resistance at 102 which was also outside the upper Boeing band so it was very simple to sell a stock when it's getting overextended and hitting resistance from the 102 rejection we need the Bulls to hold support at 98 otherwise we're likely coming back down towards 96 and then 94.
the bull breakout above 102 is a very bullish breakout which should quickly send us up to our price circuits at 109 and then 115. on Microsoft stock we were down 0.54 today and Microsoft was also getting outside the upper ball under band getting very close to our previous resistance at 283 started to get Sellers and did close down below the support at 274.
now with Microsoft we still do have a bull Trend while we're above 270 but if we break 270 267 and then below that 262. so in Microsoft watch this resistance at 274 and 283 and if we break above 274 you can use it as your risk level to go long on Nvidia stock we were up 1.03 today after Nvidia had a very high volume kind of blow off top look outside that upper Bollinger band and above our price Target at 267 and and as you can tell those gains were all given back by the clothes so this is very critical resistance in Nvidia right here at 267 and if we break above this we are likely going to start climbing higher towards 300 but that is very unlikely going to happen without some type of pullback or correction before we go any higher so just keep in mind this stock is very overextended hitting need to at least get a pullback back down towards the support trend line before we go any higher which means we're likely going to revisit 258 to 254.
if we break that support then we need to hold 244 and e Gap close at 2 11 even though we will have some strong support right around 227. on Tesla stock we were down 3.25 today and at one point today it did look like Tesla was trying to break above 197 but it was obviously a false breakout look and we're right back down towards support right around 190.
190 is a valid support level for Tesla but we do have a gap to fill out one 186 so there's a very good chance on this rejection the Bears will try to push Tesla down to close the gap at 186 and that is likely going to be instant support once the Gap fills if we break down below the Gap then look for support at 183 and then 173.
the bullish breakout is still back over 197 and then above that we could start marching higher towards 208. on Apple stock we were down 0.91 today and apple is still looking like a bullish inverse Head and Shoulders breakout as long as it's above 156 and we are very close to the critical resistance at 163 today it does look like that was too far outside the upper Bollinger band to get there today and obviously we did see sellers once we hit 162 but we are still in the bull Trend and still trading above the 5 EMA of support Redrum 157 so use critical support right here at the neckline at 156 with the valid upside price Target still up there at 163 and because of the inverse Head and Shoulders we could continue to push higher than that on the financial sector we were down 2.32 today with another very bearish looking candle after just a dead cat balance and we did close the gap to the downside and sliced right down through it below support yet again this is obviously very bearish and it's not good news for the S P 500 because there is no way the financial sector looking this week is going to help the S P 500 rally higher the industrial sector was down 1.92 today getting rejected from all of the negatively sloping moving averages closing the Gap below and getting very close to our price Target at 95.
the healthcare sector was down 1.51 today getting that perfect rejection from the bottom of the channel at 128 and still in a bear Trend below 129. the energy sector was down 2.13 today and so far it looks like it's following our path where we close the gap to the upside and now we're on our way to close the gaps to the downside so look for the downside Gap fills at 78 and then 73.
so jumping back over to the S P 500 this is still a very obvious downtrend of lower highs and lower lows unless you go look in the tech sector where you have the big tech companies in the triple Qs this is a very mixed market and there's a lot of difference signals depending on which sectors you're looking at and this is obviously a time to focus on your trade plan and make sure you are trading the stocks that are best for your strategy the big tech companies are the strongest and the financial companies right now are the weakest so if you're a bear focus on the weaker sectors and if you're a bull focus on the stronger sectors because that's going to fit your strategy a lot better is aux hrek live email and text message and only tries the etfc ]
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