저자: 미상 · 외국인
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S&P500이 200일선 부근(393)에서 지지/저항 테스트 중이며 FOMC 이후 방향이 갈림. 나스닥100은 볼린저 밴드 확장을 기다리는 상황, 다우·러셀2000은 각 지지선 이탈 여부가 관건. VIX는 여전히 20 이상으로 변동성 높음. 비트코인은 28,000~30,000 저항 부근이라 정체 가능성. 빅테크(구글·아마존·MSFT·엔비디아·테슬라·애플)는 단기 과열 후 눌림 또는 추세 지속을 기술적 레벨로 제시. 금융·산업재·헬스케어·에너지 섹터는 데드캣 바운스 관점.
다듬은 글
the stock market's trying to bounce back while the bank sector is still looking relatively weak right alright today spy was up 0.96 and we did get the second daily close back over the 200 daily moving average which was that critical resistance at 393. now just bigger picture if you zoom out you look at spy this does look like we broke out above the bear Market resistance trend line and then slowly but surely came all the way back to test that level as support and that is currently why price action is spending so much time around this moving forward this price action is going to tell us whether we're going back into a bear Market or going to try to bounce above the 200 daily moving average and start climbing to higher prices which could take us to spy 420 or higher so this level is very critical and this retest is very critical and this is all going to be around this Zone at 393.
so pay attention to that exact number whether we are below or above 393 is going to become more and more relevant as time goes on now looking forward we do have fomc this week and there's going to be a very important range to pay attention to and that is going to be this range between spy 388 up to about 396.
the Bulls need to break 396 and then get the breakout above 400 and the Bears will need to break down below 388 and 385 to start pushing down towards the December lows keep in mind December lows are a very strong support zone so even if price action gets down in there there are likely going to be lots of buyers in those levels making it very difficult to drive prices lower so that is by far the most critical support Zone to pay attention to now if the Bulls can push higher and break back over 393 and 400 then we'll have higher risk levels to pay better attention to but right now we're right on top of the 200 daily moving average so watch the break of 396 to get more bullish and then 400 and above 400 will likely go fill that Gap at 408 if we break down below 388 you're looking for 385 3A 80 and 377.
on the NASDAQ 100 triple cues we had a relatively flat day today going up 0.2 percent but again that should be no surprise because we're just way too far outside the upper Bollinger band and we need time for those Bollinger Bands to expand which is exactly what is currently happening so if you look at the price action on the triple cues I expect price to continue to push tomorrow and we simply need to break above 307 to get up here right around 3 12.
it's going to happen very quickly and the boulder bands are going to expand allowing for that to happen so the bull breakout will be above 307 and then above 312. the Bears need to reject at resistance and push back down towards 300 which is the critical support for the Bulls because that was the bullish breakout of the higher high so critical support on the triple cues is very well defined at 300 and the critical resistance is up here at 307.
if we lose 300 we'll be looking for a retest of 294 or the 200 daily moving average right around 297. on the Dow Jones we were up 1.19 today and the Dow Jones did get another daily closed back over the 5 EMA so it is possible the Dow is trying to find support at the breakout of the retest at 3 18. just like spy we had a bull breakout of that resistance trend line and multiple tests in the Dow Jones so if we fail this support at 318 it should be a very quick trip down to fill the Gap at 311 and that is a very quick seven dollar move if we fail this support Zone the Bulls need to break back over the 200 daily moving average at 324 and this critical resistance zone between 327 and 330.
if the Bulls can break it back above 330 it will look like a successful retest and a bounce up 1.3 percent and again this still just looks like a dead cat bouncing because this is a very bearish daily candle even though we did go up 1.3 percent we were unable to see the small caps closing back over the 5 EMA so the small caps need to hold this support at 170 or we're likely going to flush back down into the 160s so that is the very critical support level to pay attention to the upside resistance zone is going to be right around 174 and 177 and if the Bulls pushed through all of that resistance then we're looking for The Gap close and 81.
on the arcade ETF we were down 1.19 and again we continue to find resistance at the breakdown of 39 which was the lower low breakdown that set this downtrend now you can look at this as a possibility that the Bulls are trying to get a bull breakout and a retest right here right around 38 but if that's true then we need to see a balance and a break back over 39 and then 40.4 this is a downtrend so I would wait for confirmation in the price action the downtrend is ending if we lose the support at 38 you're looking for stronger support down here right around 36 and 34.6 on the Bixby we're down 5.25 percent and the vix does continue to crush as it tries to break out into the upper 20s but we are still trading above 24 and 20 so this is still a very volatile market now pay attention to the vix because if it does continue to crush and we Crush through the rest of the week and get another daily close back below 20.
that tells us we are likely going back into a bull Trend and we will get confirmation in the price action of the indices however don't assume it's going to happen wait until price action confirms it and right now the vix is still telling you to be cautious on bitcoin we're currently down point three percent and Bitcoin did reach our other price Target which was right here right around 28 300 and we are currently finding resistance at that level now there is a good chance that this is going to be very difficult resistance between 28 000 and all the way up to about thirty thousand so don't be surprised if Bitcoin starts to stall out and we see this rally starting to fade from here however you can stay bullish in Bitcoin as long as it's above this breakout at 25 000 and if you know anything about crypto sometimes it goes way higher than anybody expects but in this example due respect this very critical resistance Zone which we are currently already trading at on Google stock we were down point three nine percent after cooling down and hitting our resistance on Friday and just getting a little too far outside that upper Bollinger band as we reached our price target of resistance at 102.
now from here Google will need need some time to cool down before the Bulls can push through that strong resistance so there is the possibility we continue to pull back a little bit more and reach a lower Target right around 98 to 99 if the Bears keep pushing we could come all the way back down towards 96 which was the breakout and the Bulls need to break above 102 to get to our next Target tire at 106 and the Gap close at 110.
on Amazon stock we were down 1.25 percent and Amazon was also one of those stocks just getting too far outside the upper Bounder band so it was due for a cooldown and it did come back down to the 50 EMA of support at 96 and found buyers at that level and closed back up closer to the resistance at 98.
from here the Bulls will need time for these Boulder bands to expand before they can test the critical resistance at 102 and the break of 102 should bring us up here to 109 and 115. critical downside support will be the zone between 94 and 96 90. on Microsoft stock we were down 2.58 after reaching that price Target on Friday up there at 283 and we were way outside the upper Boulder band so we were due for a cooldown and we're right back down to the five EMA of support at 270 bouncing off of the 5 EMA as these Bollinger Bands expand will be incredibly bullish so if we do start to bounce and break back over 274 look for a retest of that resistance at 283 and then the higher targets at 290 and 296.
if we break down below 270 we still have the breakout support right around 267 and this Gap fail zone of previous resistance around 262. on Nvidia stock we were up 0.68 today and in the morning we did close the gap to the downside which was that Gap fill right around 256 and we did bounce off of the positively sloping 5 EMA so we are still on which the Bollinger Bands are allowing for us to reach is going to be up here right around 267.
267 I expect to find plenty of Sellers and 250 so try not to get overly bullish as we reach that critical resistance level we still do have the bull Trend and this is still bullish while we're trading above 244 to 250. on Tesla stock we are up 1.73 today and test Tesla is hanging around this resistance at 183 and just chopping around and it does look like it's building a very small bull flag however the bull flag is going to require a breakover 187 so at should be enough momentum to push us higher towards 197.
80 we're likely coming back down towards 173 and 167. remember if we break through all of that support we do have that Gap to fill all the way down there at 146 but there's no guarantee we have to go fill that Gap right now on Apple stock we were up 1.55 and apple did get the bull breakout which is looking like we are confirming the inverse Head and Shoulders which was just an idea until we had the price action confirmation with the breakout today so this inverse Head and Shoulders should easily take apple up to 163 and then 170 as long as we're trading above 156 so that's your critical support level if we break down below 156 we still have support here right around 153 and Below 153 we have stronger support at 150.
on the financials we were up 0.61 percent today and the financials still look like they're just a dead cat bouncing because this is a very bearish daily candle that could not even break back over the resistance at 31.37 the Bulls are trying to turn this corner but they are running into lots of selling pressure so wait until price action confirms that we're reversing the downtrend before getting bullish .91 today but again it just looks like another dead cat bounce below the 5 EMA and we're very likely coming down towards 95 next the healthcare sector was up 0.87 today bouncing back up to which will be resistance at 127 and we still have the bear Trend below 129.
the energy sector was up 0.95 today bouncing up from a dead cat balance but still below the negative 5 EMA and we have gaps to fill 80.3 and 73 so we'll likely dead cat bounce up to fill the upper gap before we come back down and fill the lower Gap so jumping back over the S P 500 we have a very critical range we're trading in and Tech sector is still Leading The Way with all the financial issues but we cannot go into a bull Trend if the financials don't join the rally so pay attention to the financial sector and the tech sector because we need both of them rallying together to get any type of sustainable rally let the price action do all the talking and know the critical levels and make sure you have no bias because this week is going to give us a very critical price action read on where we are likely going in April if you want to come join you need to server by clicking on the link below I also have a o
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