저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 금리와 인플레이션 상승 압력이 계속되며 연준이 결국 개입하겠지만, 실질 인플레이션은 공식 수치보다 높아 채권은 매력이 없고 금과 달러 약세가 진행된다. 금리 전망: 미국 10년물 금리(1.635%)가 수주 내 2%까지 오를 수 있으며, 연준이 방관하면 2%→2.5%→3%→4%로 상승할 수 있다고 봤다. 연준은 결국 개입하겠지만 시점은 불확실하다. 주식 시장: 금리 상승은 미래 이익에 기대는 무수익 성장주(일부 기술주)에 타격을 준다. 현재 금리 상승은 일부 종목 문제일 뿐 전체 시장은 아직 충분히 겁먹지 않았다. 배당과 가격 결정력을 가진 실적 기업이 유리하다. 채권: 1.6% 수익률의 국채는 과대평가되어 있으며, 실질 인플레이션(3% 이상으로 추정)을 감안하면 매력이 없다. 일본 등 해외 투자자도 손실 위험 때문에 채권 매수를 꺼릴 것이다. 금·달러: 생산자물가 발표 후 금이 일시 하락했지만 회복했다. 인플레이션을 연준이 잡지 못하며 달러는 결국 붕괴하고 금은 크게 오를 것이라 주장했다. 은도 함께 언급. 리스크: 정부가 물가를 낮게 집계한다는 주장과 연준의 대응 여부가 주요 변수. 장기 관점의 구조적 견해가 강하다.
다듬은 글
there is no end in sight interest rates are going to continue to rise uh the federal reserve is really playing what amounts to a game of chicken with the bond market because if you look at the balance sheet numbers they came out again yesterday yes the balance sheet was up i forget 20 30 billion something like that on the week but nothing compared to the enormity of treasury bonds that are up for sale and if the fed doesn't step up the pace of its um bond buying then yields are going to continue in fact we got news yesterday out of the ecb that they are going to expand their qe program remember australia was the first central bank to do that now they're followed by the ecb why is the ecb doing this to artificially limit the rate of increase in interest rates why because there's so much debt out there thanks to the central banks artificially suppressing interest rates we have a lot of debt and now that the market is trying to increase the cost of servicing that debt the central banks are at it again by trying to interfere with market forces in order to prolong the bubble so i think the federal reserve ultimately is going to have to blink in this game of chicken otherwise the yields are going to continue to go up that the 10-year i think could hit 2 i don't know within a few weeks i mean 1.635 now and if the fed does nothing it's going to be a quick trip from two to two and a half and then three and then four so at some point the fed is going to have to step up i mean they don't have to i mean they shouldn't they should just let the whole house of carbs collapse but that's not how they operate i mean they may let it start to collapse the fed may wait until rising interest rates are an obvious problem for the overall market see right now it's not a problem it's a problem for certain stocks certain tech stocks the problem with growth stocks that have no earnings today is you're buying earnings in the future and the higher interest rates are the less you're willing to pay for future earnings today what you want when interest rates are rising and there's inflation which is the reason they're rising is you want companies that are earning money right now so that they can pay you a dividend today that you don't have to wait for and more importantly if you have a company that is earning money right now because they're selling products providing services that people need people want they can raise their prices you have pricing power if you don't even have any earnings then it doesn't matter whether or not you have pricing power because what differs it make you're not earning any money you're not sharing your earnings with your shareholders but if you are earning money then you can raise prices and earn more money and so those dividends can go up to help offset the inflation that you're experiencing so it could take a much bigger move up in interest rates before the overall stock market is scared enough for the fed to come running to the rescue but in the meantime rates are going to keep rising now sometimes rising interest rates act as a competition for stocks people might think well i can get 1.6 now on a 10-year treasury so maybe that looks attractive maybe i'll sell some of my stocks to buy a treasury well if inflation is percent or two and a half percent or three percent or it's actually much higher than that but what's so attractive about 1.6 i mean that's what i said to this other theory nonsense theory that david tepper had was that the japanese are going to load up the truck with u.s treasuries because they can finally get a positive half a percent a year uh over the next 10 years who the hell wants that nobody is gonna trade a stock that has a dividend yield of four five six seven eight percent i mean those stocks are out there we're buying them nobody is going to trade those stocks to clip a coupon at 1.6 because once you buy that bond you're locked into that rate the bond's not going to go up as inflation goes up but you own a stock those yields are going higher so at this point bonds are so overpriced that it doesn't matter if they keep going up if the 10 year goes to two percent who cares two and a half three percent no one's going to take it because they can see the inflation and again it's not the nominal rate that matters to the investor it's the real rate and if you're not blind and you're not just simply distracted by the sleight of hand that the government pulls with the official numbers and you actually open your eyes and look at what's happening in the real economy to the cost of everything that you want to buy you know that a three percent yield isn't even going to come close to covering the annual rate of inflation so people are going to stick with equities for a lot longer before they really start to look at bonds as being tempting in the meantime you still have this belief out there that the federal reserve is in a position to do something if inflation gets out of hand which it's not i mean the markets believe that the fed is going to have to deal with this uh impending inflation threat by raising interest rates that's why the dollar uh is rising that's why gold was under pressure in fact what really pressured gold this morning and in fact was a catalyst for the big sell-off in the bond market was the release of the producer price numbers for february and the expectation was for prices to rise by four tenths of a percent which was a big slowdown from the 1.9 percent surge in the month of january meanwhile the government is cooking the books to hide the inflation that there is so that they can pretend it's lower than 2 percent and then you have the feds saying oh inflation's too low we need more right they're all working together to justify all of this money printing but the investors at this point they're not fooled by that illusion and they don't want to buy these bonds and particularly foreigners don't want to buy these bonds because they're the ones that are going to see the losses first when the dollar rolls over and and and collapses which is going to happen i mean we got a rally today in the dollar but it wasn't that big a rally and then the the rally lost steam late in the day look at the gold sell-off goal was down about 20 bucks almost immediately after these numbers came out now it was down before the numbers too but it tried to rally back and then when the number came down it got smacked down again silver was down i think as much as 60 70 cents gold has recovered and it's now up about four bucks on the day it got down to as low as about 1700 and now it's back in about 1727 and silver couldn't quite make it back into positive territory but it's only down about 15 cents almost all the way back up to 26.
so it seems to me that we've really washed out a lot of the selling here a lot of the people who just assume the fed's going to successfully battle inflation maybe they're flushed out at some point it's the people who understand that they're not going to successfully battle inflation they're not even going to battle let alone secede the government is going to concede the battle right they're not gonna fight they're not gonna get in a ring with inflation they can't win and so inflation is gonna knock out uh uh the fed it's gonna knock out the dollar and so gold's gotta go through the roof the dollar's gonna go through the floor and people are going to figure this out you
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