저자: TomLee · 외국인
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2026년 증시 연간 전망은 긍정적. S&P500 7,700 목표(2H 중 15~20% 조정 가능성 포함), 이익 성장 10%+와 밸류에이션 하락 조합 예상. 관세 1년 경과, 연준 금리인하, ISM 50 상회 전환을 근거로 제시. 에너지 섹터, 금융주, 소형주(Russell)에 우호적. 비트코인은 2026년 25만 달러 가능성 언급, 4년 사이클 역행 근거로 레버리지 리셋·기관 채택·정부 지원·금 강세·ISM 상승 등을 제시.
다듬은 글
head of research uh and fund strate it is important the way the market gets out of the gate that we can say it's not it doesn't determine everything but when you start strong at the beginning of the year it's usually good this scares the this is the Wall Street Journal this is like the worst headline you could possibly have Wall Street expects experts expect rally to keep going.
Don't just don't don't even if you think it, don't print it. Don't say that. I I mean that to me just just makes me think that it could definitely could be it could be a down year. Yeah, but it wasn't splashed in the top of the page. It's only a little bit and you're right in there because you think 7,700 by the end of 2026 with a 15 to 20% correction at some point in in uh the second half of the year.
Yeah. like compressed in one year will be joy, depression and rally, right? I think just like last year in 2025 we had a terrible start. People got very gloomy then we had a nice rally to finish the year. You mean April was the Yeah. April was the low liberation day. Yeah. So I think because you know the market will test the new Fed that probably is the reason we have some fear this year but there's a lot of things to be optimistic about you know the tariffs are anniversarying the Fed is cutting and you know the ISM could finally turn back above 50 and that's good news and you know I we are pretty optimistic about some groups that have lagged like energy is our one of our top sector picks this year
with the mag 7 and the mag seven should still keep producing good earnings growth and then the financials and small cap. So it's like uh a lot of things that could go right in the market the 7700 so is do we get a 10% gain in earnings and the multiple stays where it is? Is that is that your thesis basically?
Uh I think earnings will do even better and the multiple comes down. Yeah. So it's because other sectors are rerating but the mag 7 might just track their earnings growth. So that'll pull the overall PE down. You're once again, not only are you telling us we're going to be up, you're even telling us when it's going to go down, when it's going to go up.
You got a number 7,700. You even got you're back on the horse of predicting Bitcoin even though it didn't work out last year. Your your numbers were not hit. And you know, it's like no, I I would not say that you're a terrible financial advisor based on trying to predict Bitcoin. I don't know who could could do that.
So, I'm not gonna hold your feet to the fire, but as I said, you're getting right back on the horse. 250 250,000. Yeah, you can bleep me out, too, if I just say the number. Um, yeah, that'd be good for you. That that we don't care. I'm trying to protect you. Um, yeah, 250. 250 thou, not $250, which some people still have as a
So, uh, yeah, in 2026, if Bitcoin gets to 200 or 250,000, it would be breaking the fouryear cycle. Um, so that's sort of part of our view is that this, you know, if you follow the four-year cycle, Bitcoin should be down this year, but I think that there are tailwinds that are building. And part of it is we kind of reset leverage on October 10th with that big shock,
right? And now I think there is still institutional adoption taking place and Wall Street is still building a lot of products on the blockchain and then we have US government support. So I think these are tailwinds that help Bitcoin recover this year. And even though people have pointed out the divergence from gold and silver, you think with gold and silver doing well, eventually Bitcoin benefits from that trade.
Yeah. Uh it does look like gold rallies typically lead Bitcoin rallies. So I think it's been healthy for gold to rally. um part of its you know dollar debasement and now with monetary easing those are things that are supportive of crypto to follow and as you know crypto adoption rates are still quite low so crypto has sort of an exponential growth opportunity because the adoption is increasing
you even think that an improving ISM is bullish for crypto it is for whatever hard to explain reason uh we found that copper to gold price ratio when that rises that coincides with Bitcoin rallying and we also found that the ISM as it moves from below 50 to its peak has coincided with Bitcoin entering its sort of rally stage.
So So you don't know why you just have noticed that that it happens. Yeah. Do you have a forecast for oil? I mean, I think the oil movement last year confounded a lot of people. Now you've got Venezuela on top of this. How do you figure that out? Yeah, it's uh it is been sort of surprising how badly oil's done.
I know our technician, Mark Newton, thinks oil could actually see something like 40 uh early this year, but that won't necessarily hurt the stocks because I think the equities have been lagging for so long. I mean they're if you look at the big majors you mean? Yeah. So the majors should do well. So I think energy stocks are going to start discounting higher oil even as oil gets to 40.
The um the move that we saw the broadening of the market into even small caps and and uh I don't know Russell does that continue is that is that necessary? I think it it seems healthy if that if that were to happen. Uh yeah, I think it's it's healthy and it's important. The small caps made an all-time high last year, which is great because that's been a long time coming.
And lower interest rates helps them. Monetary easing, earnings growth is starting to look better. And if we have mergers, I I think all of these are tailwinds for small caps. And of course, small caps should have been tracking EM stocks. EM did really well last year. Small caps are just finally catching up.
So, should I sell my house and everything I have and and buy Bitcoin at 92,000 because it's going to 250,000? Why wouldn't I do that if you know anything? Well, if you're if you're young enough, that's not I'm not I do have a birthday tomorrow. Significant birthday kind day tomorrow. It's the epiphany.
No, it was all and it's January 6th. It used to be people say you're born on January 6th. That's when the three wise men came. Now it totally got ruined by by what happened. Now all people think of on January I know you think it's appropriate I have January 6 as well. I know I I can read your I can read I can read your mind.
You think it's perfect that I have January 6. I actually never thought because it was such a great gift for me. I say nothing. All right, Tom. Thanks. Um great to see you. Great to see you. And we we hope to see you a lot. And uh I I hope you're not saying no, I'm not coming on anymore because I was so wrong.
I hope that doesn't h You would come on anyway, would you? Yes. I'll just have to face the firing squad. You just have to You would just have to face it and uh and man up. Or is it person up? Man up. Is it? I can man up. Watch. Okay. All right. Thanks, Tom.
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