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Fundstrat Capital · 2025-08-19 · 유튜브 시청 41,548 · Board Views 8 · International

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p Capital and the senior portfolio manager for Fundstrat's US Large Cap Granny Shots ETF, ticker GRNY. This is our update for the week of August 15th. First, let me cover some particulars. The price as of August 14th was 2378, net asset value of 2377, and total assets of $2.28 28 billion. Over the past week, Granny Shots was up 58% compared to a 2% rise for the S&P, meaning Granny Shots underperformed by 148 basis points.

Year-to date, Granny Shots is up 19.1% compared to a total return for the S&P of 10.8, meaning Granny Shots is outperforming by 825 basis points. On August 14th, we executed our quarterly rebalance for Granny Shots. And again, we uh want to highlight some of the changes. First, let me cover the deletions.

We removed Abbott Labs, FICO, Intuitive Surgical, Progressive Insurance, and PayPal. We added Broadcom, Expedia, Lamb Research, Live Nation, Vistra, and Willis Towers Watson. So let's think about uh the performance of these additions and why we added them. Uh here you can see that uh none of these is more than two granny shots, meaning that they don't fall into more than two themes.

And uh let me just walk you through each of these. Broadcom, as you can see, has been a strong performer. It really falls into our style tilt and it's a company that is a global labor supplier. That's why it's a granny shot. Expedia is a very well-known company, one of the category leaders, and it falls into our style tilt and seasonality portfolio.

Lamb Research has been another leading important name in terms of AI, but it falls into our style tilt as well. That's what makes it a granny. Live Nation has been a millennial story and now has benefits from seasonality, and that's what makes it a granny. Vistra Corp actually is a play on energy and cyber security and now has a benefit from style tilt and that makes it a granny and Willis Towers Watson is a play on both a PMI recovery and easing financial conditions which makes it a granny.

Now let me talk to you about style tilt. uh we kind of rebalance our views around style tilt every 3 months and previously we were recommending quality growth and growth cyclicals but our new recommendation is pure growth and growth cyclicals. So the changes from quality growth to grow to pure growth.

Now, that's going to sound puzzling to you because for instance, year-to- date or really in the last month and last week, pure growth has been trailing. But again, past is not a pro uh a predictor of future returns. And that's why we're being a little contrarian here. And as far as seasonality goes, these are the eight groups that we think are seasonal leaders.

hotels, restaurants, and leisure, consumer staples, household products, entertainment, software, tech, hardware, textiles, and specialty retail. But of course, we should think about the fact that the Fed's doubbish beginning in the fall. And in fact, of these, seven out of the eight we believe are actually sensitive to a Fed turning more doubbish, the exception being consumer staples.

Now, let's look at Granny Shot's individual portfolio holdings over the past week. Um, as you can see, these are the five removals. And, uh, the top five performers were Apple, which we've kind of said, don't give up on Apple because we we know that they're not going to be, um, missing out on AI. They've just been patient.

Monster Beverage, AMD, KA 10 Core, and American Express. Now, year to date, the two lagards have been Apple and American Express. The bottom five were Abbott Labs, Quanta, GE, Venova, Strategy, and Axon Enterprises. And of those, Abbott Labs has been removed, but it's been a good performer year to date.

And uh just to recap, earning season is almost over. There's still a handful of companies yet to report within Granny Shots, but 97% have had earning surprise, and that's pretty good. Um and uh finally on theme portfolios, the best performing was energy or the worst performing sorry was energy and cyber security relative to the S&P.

The second worst is style tilt and the third is PMI recoveries. So if you're wondering what happened to Granny Shot's underperformance this week, I'd really attribute it to those three factors. That's it for now. Thanks for listening and I'll speak to you soon.

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