저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
나스닥100 트리플큐(QQQ)가 단기 과열(밴드 상단 이탈, 350 저항) 상태라 335~339, 333, 320대, 315/308 갭 메우기까지 10~15% 조정 가능성을 주장. 빅테크 비중이 커서 조정 시 시장 하락 위험이 크다며 350 부근 리스크 관리를 강조. 엔비디아는 상승 여력 제한, 애플은 170 부근 돌파 후 160대 재테스트 가능성, 마이크로소프트는 340대 신고가 근접하나 과열 조정 필요.
다듬은 글
I'm starting to get bearish on the big Tech sector so stay tuned to find out why we will be starting with the NASDAQ 100 triple cues because this is the sector that has been leading the charge higher in this current bull Trend the big tech companies are an absolute fire and they carry the majority of the weight in the NASDAQ 100 and the Spy ETF and as you can tell from today's price action we had a very bullish breakout and it's still happening on very high volume now with that being said I am starting to get bearish at these prices and I'm going to now talk about exactly why so first and foremost I brought back this beautiful picture of the big brain bear which if you were following me for any amount of time last year you are very accustomed to seeing this beautiful face this is the big brain bear that knows exactly when the short the market and this is not one of those soft teddy bears that constantly says the Market's going to crash each and every day just because we get a green Candlestick there have been plenty of bears calling for a crash and plenty of bearish sentiment all year long yet the market continues news to climb the wall of worry and I'm telling you right now that could be close to an end and this could be the real deal time to start getting bearish so now let's start talking about the reasons why you need to be cautious going into next week and the first reason is simply because we have gone way too far way too fast if you look at this chart things are starting to look very parabolic and the last time we saw this happening was back here on February 2nd and as you can tell that did lead to a little bit of a blow off top look and a month-long correction I think there is a very good chance we are repeating that event because we still have way too many bears shorting this market and they have now been squeezed out of their positions which means we have the perfect conditions to finally go through a correction remember the market likes to cause maximum pain to the majority so if the majority of retail has been bearish and shorting the triple cues they are now six feet under and they have no money left to short the market with because they've been shorting for the entire year that is the perfect time to reverse the script and start sending us lower and this is the perfect resistance level to do so from added overextended condition now if we got to this resistance and we were not overextended there's a good chance we would just consolidate before breaking through it but because we're getting overextended as we reach this very critical level and we already know the big brain bear is just waiting at this level there's a very good chance the Bulls are going to fail at the first attempt and we are going to start getting a pullback back down towards 337 to 339 and possibly even as low as the Gap fill right around 333.
this is going to be a very painful pullback if you're not prepared for it or at least expecting the possibility of it and there's a very good chance this parabolic rally needs to cool down so what I want you to pay attention to over the coming weeks is the possibility that the triple cues are going to stall out and go through a cooldown from this level right around 350.
we are way outside the upper Boulder band and we are getting very separated from all these moving averages and this is really just a parabolic move that is likely not going much higher without a cooldown so next up let's jump over to a weekly chart of the triple cues and you can see on the weekly chart we have been bullish all year long and I have been referencing this weekly double bottom from 260 because we had the breakout above the 290s which confirmed we had the double bottom breakout which is a very bullish pattern to higher prices that's why I've been able to stay bullish all year because the chart was screaming in our face that we had a bottom and we were breaking out and going to higher prices then just recently we broke out above the August ties and if you remember back to August of last year that was a very bearish moment where we actually thought there was the possibility the market bottomed in June and we know that was a failed signal and now we have this w-shaped bottom from the double bottom and we're breaking out above the August size but we are running into this very critical retracement of the bear Market which is the 61.8 retracement which is right where the bear is going to be waiting at 350.
remember this does not guarantee the stock market is not going to go higher and eventually break this level but because we are now outside the upper Boulder band on the daily chart and the weekly chart and we're hitting are even going to see the Bulls starting to sell and locking in profit at the same exact time we're going to have the big brain bear stepping in and shorting the market to lower prices remember there's the difference between smart money and dumb money and dumb money has been shorting the market the entire year and smart money has been accumulating at the lows getting ready for this bull rally and that smart money could now be ready to lock in their profits do not be part of the dumb money crowd look ahead and look forward and right now looking at this chart with the weekly over extension outside the upper Bounder band it is time to get very cautious and expect significant downside if we start to see high volume selling so as I always tell you on this channel we follow price action and Trend and we let the price action do all the talking and looking at this chart we have a very strong bull Trend with all of the moving averages on the weekly chart stacked to the bull side and are not simply getting bearish just for the hell of it we are simply managing risk right here at triple cues levels of 350.
so if you want to short the market at 350 simply manage a risk from that resistance and if you've been holding long positions consider locking in some of those profits and getting prepared for a downturn if we start braking above 350 and we get rid of these over-extended conditions and the moving averages catch up and we're no longer outside the upper boner band then we can start accumulating back into long positions with a much better risk reward ratio right now it's just simply too risky to stay long at this critical level with the overextended conditions and if you don't see the pullback coming you can wait for confirmation with the price action on the daily chart and wait for the price action to break below a critical level so if we go back over to the daily chart simply manage your risk at this resistance at 350 whether you want to Short from there or not is up to you but I would definitely be aware of the possibility that we're coming back down towards 333 or at a very minimum the breakout at 337 to 339 now I think we're going to go much lower than that and I think there's a better chance we come all the way back down into the 320s and possibly even close the gap at 315 and 308 if you just take a simple percent from where we close today all the way down to the bottom of the Gap fill that is a full-blown correction of eleven and a half percent anything between 10 and 15 percent is a completely normal stock market correction and after such a strong bull run it would be completely normal to see a correction of that magnitude so quite simply said you need to be very cautious at triple Q's levels of 350 because there's a very good chance the big brain bear is sitting right there at that level and there's a lot of bulls preparing to lock in profits it doesn't guarantee I'm right and that doesn't guarantee we can't go higher so if we start to break 350 we still have the possibility to climb to the next price Target higher at 360.
so also let's quickly look at some of the top five names in the triple cues and the first one that comes to mind is obviously Nvidia stock which had a extremely bullish week after earnings and broke out to new all-time highs so anytime we see top 5 or top 10 names breaking out to all-time highs we have to instantly consider the possibility we're in a bull market which means our triple cues can continue to still push higher now just looking at nvidia's weekly chart there is a very slim chance Nvidia continues to climb because it's way outside the upper bone on this weekly chart and even though that doesn't guarantee it has to go much lower it is definitely not going much higher it's more than likely going to start bull flagging and going into a trading range so while Nvidia is leading the way higher we still have to acknowledge the fact that the index is made up of more than just one company so let's go look at another stock like apple alright so the weekly chart of Apple we've gone over this before is clearly also looking like a bull breakout after that double correction we had last year and we are now breaking out of the downtrending channel ever since we started to close above the 170s so with Nvidia breaking out to all-time highs there's a very good chance Apple stock could be next on the list which is going to require a break above the 180s however that requires Apple to stay above this breakout level and as we know when we get breakouts usually there's a good chance you're going to back test that breakout before going any higher so if we start to see Apple stock breaking down below about 170 there is a very good chance it's going back into the 160s to test this breakout level again that doesn't mean it's bearish it simply means it's retesting the breakout before it goes any higher however looking at the weekly chart you can see apple is still above all the moving averages with a bull Trend and this is the exact same setup we had in Nvidia stock when I said it was simply not worth the risk to short it so while you need to be aware that there's risk we could be going lower nothing on the chart says that we have to so you need to build a trade plan around critical support levels and get more bearish if those levels break down and then next let's quickly jump over to Microsoft which is actually the number one stock in the NASDAQ 100 triple cues and it is also getting very close to all-time highs in the 340s only about 10 to 15 dollars away but it is also looking over extended outside the weekly Bollinger band now these bands are expanding and we do have a bull trend but there's still a very good chance we need to see a little bit of cool down before these big tech companies are going to break out to all-time highs so what I want you to take away from this is that we have bull Trends and we have the leaders that are making up these bull Trends still pushing higher which could be going to all-time Highs but you need to watch that level very closely on the triple cues at 350.
so just to summarize we'll move back over to the triple cues I want you to pay very close attention to this level at 350 because we are getting overextended as we're reaching this critical resistance whether or not you are shorting the market from this level is 100 up to you it is very little risk to do so as long as you understand how to manage a risk above that level if we start to break out if you're simply holding long positions and you're getting nervous you can always take partial profits and still leave Runners but do not completely throw away the idea that this is going to lead to a major correction or at least a sizable pullback I'm spending extra time going over this because the big tech companies are the majority of the way in the market and they have been a major reason why we still have a bull Trend in the S P 500 if the big Tech sector starts to roll over and die that is going to bring a lot of downside risk in the market so I want to make extra sure this is on your radar we are absolutely crushing this Market this year in the stock show and trading Discord and also with bank trade alerts so if you still need help in this market and you want to perform better consider checking out either of those services in the stock show Discord you and you can trade with other price action Traders on Bank trade alerts you'll get we only trade the show on ]
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