저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
S&P500은 417~420 저항 위에 있어 강세 구조가 유지된다고 보며, 부채한도 리스크는 가격 확인 전까지 근거로 쓰지 않는다. 나스닥100 선물은 과매수 상태라 333·327 재테스트 가능성을 언급한다. 다우는 336 돌파 전까지 약세, 러셀2000은 176 위에서 상승 여지, ARKK는 40.5~41.5 저항에서 숏 기회를 제시한다. VIX 18 이하로 공포는 낮고 비트코인은 27,000 지지 이탈 시 약세 전환을 본다. 테슬라는 183 돌파 후 과열로 눌림을 예상하며 197~208을 목표로 제시한다. 애플은 171 위에서 강세이나 고점 신호를 경계한다. 금융·산업·헬스케어·에너지 섹터도 각 저항·지지선 기준으로 판단한다.
다듬은 글
the debt ceiling deadline is around the corner in the stock market sitting up point zero four percent so we went absolutely nowhere and we're still right around spy 420. now very simply said the debt ceiling does matter but we need to see the price action agreeing with us and we can't become bearish while the chart is still bullish and right now the chart is still bullish while spy is above 417.
remember spy above 417 is the higher high breakout from the February 2nd high so being above that level means we are still in short squeeze territory and we still do have Gap stuff 421 and 425. so while we can speculate on what might happen we can only trade what the chart is giving us and right now if you're shorting this Market you need to cover if we break out above 420 or you need to get more bearish if we break the support at 417.
bigger picture I'm not getting bearish until we can at least break down to a lower low and that's going to require a break of the support which is right here at 4 14. so even if we break below 417 you still have some strong support down here right around 4 14. so if you're a bearish manager risk right here at 420 which I do consider a critical resistance but because we are in short squeeze territory you shouldn't be getting overly bearish until we can lose some of the support below and confirm a downtrend so keep in mind we have gaps at 421 and 425 but we also have gaps down here at 407 401 and 396 and while we know all of these gaps are very likely going to get filled in the future we have no idea exactly when so the trend right now still favors the Bulls while spy is above 4 14 and 417 so we're not getting bearish until we break down below those support levels keep in mind people have been trying to call a top in this market all year long and it continues to grind higher which is known as climbing the wall of worry there has been a narrative all year long on why the market should go lower and not higher so the debt ceiling is just the most recent narrative we've had plenty of narratives before the debt ceiling that told us the market needed to go lower yet here we are in the market is currently sitting near year-to-date highs so as I always tell you let the chart and the trend and the price action do all the talking and right now they're all still bullish on the NASDAQ 100 triple cues we were up point three four percent today and the triple cues are still closing near my critical resistance zone between 337 and 339 I really don't see a lot more upside in the triple cues until we break above these strong resistance levels and it does look like we went a little too far too fast which is evident by two days ago closing outside the upper Bollinger band usually when we get this far overextended we are at least going to go sideways to down before we go any higher so I'm not looking for a ton more upside in the NASDAQ 100 doesn't guarantee I'm right and that doesn't guarantee we have to go lower however I would heed Kosh in here and I would not be expecting too much more upside in the triple Q's right now likely downside targets would be a retest of the breakout at 333 and 327 and that is also going to be about where the rising 20 daily moving average is going to be in just a few more days keep in mind to the downside we have gaps at 315 and 308 and while we don't know when those gaps are going to get filled we do know there's a very good chance those gaps are going to get filled sometime this year so just be aware that the triple cues are looking a little too far overextended and even though everything is still looking very bullish we have a lot more downside until we get to strong support levels also very quickly if we jump over to the 10-year yield you can see in the short term it is having a higher low and a higher high breakout which is telling us that the rates are starting to climb and as you know as rates are going higher that is going to be a headwind for Tech stock jumping over to the Dow Jones we were down 0.39 today and the Dow Jones is actually still in a bear Trend while it's trading below that resistance at 336.
remember in the Dow we have gas to fill at 329 and 322 so we're not getting bullish until we can get a daily close above critical resistance at 336. the next bear break down will be a breakdown below 332 and then I will be looking for that gap for that 329 and if we break below the 200 daily moving average I'll be looking for the gap for that 322.
so in the Dow Jones it's very simple it's heading lower until we can break above 336. on the Russell 2000 iwm ETF we were up 1.22 today and we now are the second day back over the strong resistance at 176 so the small caps are looking a lot more bullish in the short term we did close outside the upper Boulder band so we're getting a little too far overextended and the next likely upside Target will be this gap for that 181 and a test of that negatively sloping 200 daily moving average now keep in mind we are still below a negatively sloping 200 daily moving average so we are still in a longer term downtrend in the small caps so don't get overlay bullish once we close that Gap we need to break through that resistance and confirm an uptrend you could stay bullish as long as we're above 176 but if we break below 176 I will be looking for The Gap fill below right around 171.56 and we do have a valid Head and Shoulders breakdown if we start closing Below 170.
on the The RK ETF we were up 4.86 today and we are sitting at very critical resistance at 40.5 up to about 41.5 I consider this a level you could short from because we are still in a downtrend until we start clearing through this resistance zone so it's low risk to short here and we have lots of downside reward at the Gap fills below 36 and Below 32.
again those gaps don't have to get filled anytime soon but there is a good chance they will so if we do start to see high volume selling from the strong resistance Zone this could be a great shorting opportunity however if we start closing above critical resistance it's instantly a bull Trend because we're going to start breaking out and climbing to the higher prices in the mid 40s on the Vex we are up 2.26 percent today and overall the vix is still suppressed down below 18 and down below 20 and there's just no way we're going back into a bear Market until the vix bikes out above 20.
so right now the vix is still telling us low fear which confirms the bull Trends so we wait to get bearish until the vix bikes above 20. on bitcoin we're we're currently up about 0.65 percent and Bitcoin is sitting at one of those bouncer die support levels at 27 000 because if we break down below it this is going to look like a confirmed double top and head and shoulders pattern which could take us back down towards 24 000.
again it's a very simple risk level at 27 000 we're either above it or below it so let the price action guide you from here and as you can tell we are in a bear Trend now that the 20 simple moving average is crossing below the 50 EMA on Tesla stock we were up 4.85 today and Tesla has hit all of my upside targets which was the Gap fills at 177 and 183 and as you can tell we are way outside the upper Boulder band so even though we are getting a bull breakout above 183 we are getting a little too far overextended which means we are going to be due for a pullback the pullback would be a retest of this breakout at 183 and then above that we're still looking for Price targets at 197 and right around 200.
if you look at all of the big tech stocks Tesla is one of the few that are still trading below the 200 daily moving average so there's a very a good chance Tesla still can break out and go to much higher prices again I'm not calling for that right now because we are a little too far overextended so if you're bullish manage your risk at the breakout at 183 and the 50 EMA at 176 and then you're looking for those upside targets at 197 200 and 208.
on Apple stock we were down 0.55 today and apple is still in a bull Trend as long as it's trading above about 171. if we break down below 171 we will be looking for downside targets at 167 and 163 and we do now have a gap to fill just below 175 because we did gap down this morning so we now have gaps to the upside and the downside so even if we do start to bounce to the upside look for the possibility of a lower high before the next lower low because it does look like apple could be peaking and getting ready to go through a correction if you zoom out and look at this apple bull run it has been very impulsive and very strong but we know nothing can go up forever so yes there is the possibility apple is about to roll over and 're up 0.18 and the financials are finding resistance right where we were looking for resistance at 33 so we can't get bullish until we get the confirmed bull breakout and start to make a higher high if we do get rejected we're looking for the lower low down at the gap for that 31.
to clear this resistance above 101.5 on the healthcare sector we were up 0.1 percent today and the healthcare sector is trying to find support at 130 to 131 a bullish Bounce from here could take us to the Gap to that 137 but we're instantly risk off if we break below support the energy sector was down 0.41 today still looking bearish while it's trading below 80 and we still have that Gap filled Target below at 73 so we are still bearish until we can break above some of this resistance and start to show a bull Trend so jumping back over to the S P 500 there is no doubt the debt ceiling is significant but we trade the price action in the chart and we can't make any assumptions until the chart confirms what we're thinking with price action so even if you have a bearish bias because of the debt ceiling you need to let the price action prove we're going lower by breaking down through some critical support you get in the habit of letting price action confirm everything you're going to become a much better disciplined and profitable Trader eacher book you and S triple Q you can find out how to join Bank trade alerts or
Comments 0