저자: 미상 · 외국인
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S&P500이 신고점 돌파 후 숏커버링(쇼트스퀴즈) 구간에 진입, 단기 상승 지속 가능성을 주장. 숏 포지션 누적이 매수 압력으로 전환될 것으로 보며, 417 지지 및 420 저항 재테스트 후 상승을 예상. 조정 시 지지선 매수 전략을 제시하고 나스닥100(QQQ)·애플의 추세 강세와 강세장 지속을 근거로 제시. 채널 유료 서비스 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
this week the S P 500 is breaking out to new daily higher highs and we are now in short squeeze territory is it going to be a bull trap or is this the real deal breakout we're going to higher prices irst things first I want to throw up a chart that I showed you in the past of how many short sellers that we were starting to accumulate this year and we were hitting record numbers of short sellers which told us the market was likely going to go higher if you're in the stock Channel Discord this is the type of extra information that I'm supplying you and you're also getting the members only videos that have been reminding you to stay bullish this year because of all of the reasons we were likely going higher and not lower remember trading is about stacking the odds in your favor with proper risk management and it has nothing to do with having to guess the exact direction of the market that allows us to stay profitable even when we're losing trades but more often than not with proper risk management and being on the right side of the trade more often than not we are remaining very profitable in this market because we're constantly stacking the odds in our favor with proper risk management so now that spy is breaking out and we're looking at all of these short sellers that have accumulated into this Market we know those short sellers have to become net buyers to cover their short position and now that we're breaking out they're taking on way too much risk if they do not cover so for that reason while this may be a bull chat breakout more than likely due to what's going on underneath the surface of the market we are now going to see some type of short squeeze to higher prices until these short sellers cover and then because the market loves to cause maximum pain once all of these short sellers cover and everybody is starting to think the market is bullish then and only then will we see that full-blown correction that everybody is bracing for remember the theme of 2023 has been the markets going to crash in the bear Market of last year is not yet over and there's just so many people that are still extremely bearish or neutral sitting in cash that cannot objectively follow the chart because they are just too fundamentally bearish and they will not allow themselves to be objective and follow the fact that the chart is going higher to each their own and you can trade however you see fit but here on the stocks Channel we trade price action and Trend and right now looking at this chart of spy we still have bullish price action and a bull Trend even though I have to acknowledge we are coming into some very critical resistance areas that we need to be careful of all right so now that you understand what's going on underneath the surface with all of the short Sellers and this bullish breakout this is going to be a very simple chart to trade because we have very well defined risk and we have a very strong bull Trend just very quickly looking at the moving averages we can see that we have all of the moving averages positively sloping and stacked to the bullish Direction with price above all of the moving averages and we now have the bull breakout from the February highs above spy 417.
now in the short term we were getting outside the upper bowl underband on the daily chart as we hit that price Target and resistance at spy 420 so fore going any higher and so far it does look like we are starting to get that retest which means we're going to need to see spy bouncing off of 417 or down here between 4 12 and 4 14 before we go any higher to hit those price targets Above So for that reason because we have the bull Trend you can still buy the dip at the support levels once we go down to those levels to test them as long as we're getting a positive reaction and a bounce from these levels and continuing the bull Trend remember I just talked about how you want to Stack the odds in your favor and when you have a bull Trend the odds are in your favor if you're buying at support and going in the direction of the trend so that means you would be buying at support levels as we get the opportunity and pull back into that support and not freaking out screaming the sky is falling and we're going to crash just because we're getting some red candlesticks once you learn to follow price action and you block out all of that noise which there has been plenty of noise this year especially from you Bears constantly been saying the Market's going to sell off next week and you have been saying that for over five months now and we just continue to go higher So eventually you're going to wake up and realize you guessing the market is going to crash is not how you properly trade you need to eventually take on risk and to do that you're going to feel uncomfortable at times if you're buying the dip while everybody is bearish and screaming the market is going to crash that's why I say block out all of the noise and follow the price action because if you let that noise get too loud there is no way you are going to have the confidence to buy the dip near support when everybody is screaming the market is going to crash and telling you there's no way you should be buying the dip we don't need to argue that anymore because facts are facts and we now know the market has continued to go higher so there is no reason to sit here and debate on whether or not this is a bull Trend because objectively we know that it is so for that reason I am staying bullish until spy breaks down breaks below a lower low and confirms a downtrend I have been saying how important it is to get price action confirmation all year long and nothing is going to change that we need to see lower highs and lower lows before we get bearish and right now as we're getting this pulled back into support with the current bull Trend that is going to be a buying opportunity it doesn't guarantee we're going to win every single trade but that guarantees we're staying objective so now in order to get bearish we're going to need to break down below spy 410 or we're going to need to see some type of confirmation of lower highs and lower lows from these higher prices that can happen many different ways but a simple way to do that would be that we start to reject from this resistance make another lower high and continue lower and see some type of downtrend starting to form which is going to require a break of critical support in the support trend line so just remember to stay objective and have a very clear trade plan that is ready for any scenario because yes there's always going to be the scenario that this was a bull trap and we're know the Bears like to take the elevator down so yes that could happen very quickly what could happen now that we are starting to get the short squeeze is we could short squeeze to our Targets in the 420s get all of those short sellers to start to cover and then come down here and fill these gaps at a later date because a lot of those people that just got burned shorting would likely sit on the sidelines during the next drawdown because they just got so heavily burned trying to short they may not bother trying to short the next down leg lower now again there is a scenario where we just continue to go higher all the way back to the August highs and hit that level at spy 4 30 before we see any pullback or correction so you need to know all of these scenarios and as I always tell you the trend is your friend and right now the trend is still telling us we're going higher so there's no need for us to be overly worried about going down to the 200 daily moving average until we start losing in critical support again we're letting the chart do all of the talking that is not our opinion that is simply reading that the chart isn't a bull Trend with bullish price action and breaking out to a higher high in the short squeeze territory there's nothing subjective about that it is 100 exactly what the chart is telling us so there's none of our bias or opinion saying the Market's going higher we are simply looking at what is happening and the odds tell us it's likely going to continue to happen until price action tells us otherwise so stack the odds in your favor and know all of these critical support levels below at 417 414 and 412 and as long as we're above those support levels the odds favor higher prices to take us to the Gap fills at 421 425 and then a retest of the August size at 4 30.
if you don't think it's possible to get to the August highs simply go look at the triple cues and see that they've already broken above it if the big Tech sector is leading the way higher we could see spy just lagging behind and then next let's jump over to a weekly chart of spy and we can see on the weekly chart of spy we also hav all of these moving averages are positively sloping and stacked to the bullish Direction which means the fastest moving averages are on the top and the slowest moving averages are on the bottom that is 100 a weekly bull Trend which is now breaking out to a higher high which is the break back over that February High which was right around spy 412.
on this weekly chart we have higher lows and higher highs and it even looks like we have a double bottom breakout from the 380s as long as we're trading above spy 412. so there's just really no way you can look at this chart and say that we're about to crash because we have bullish price action and a bull Trend and we're still above all of the critical support that defines our risk jumping over to a daily chart of the NASDAQ 100 triple cues we can see that we were down point two three percent on Friday and again I told you to expect a cooldown because we we breaking the August size that we need to back test that level as support before we can go any higher that means coming back down to at least 333 because if I zoom out that is the exact point we broke out above which was the August 2022 highs that is a very significant breakout because that was a very significant bull rally last year and then we had an epic failure of that bull rally after a double bottom and we're breaking out and now we're clearing back above that level yet again which could be a complete technical pattern that we've double bottomed and we're getting the breakout and we're resuming back into a strong bull Trend obviously that means we're going to need to hold this successful retest of the breakout which is going to require a bounce from 333 or this breakout down here right around 327.
you could see all of these moving averages are positively sloping and prices above all the moving averages so we're also going to have support from rise into that zone now on the triple cues we have a very powerful bull Trend since the double bottom and the big tech companies have absolutely been leading the way higher because they don't have exposure to those financial stocks so with big Tech leading the way higher eventually we are going to see that relative out performance cool down and we could see more relative strength in the small caps and the stocks in the S P 500 like the other sectors with financials Industrials and health care so just keep all of this in mind while you're building your trade plan that big Tech has been the strongest but we could be seeing an end of that cycle and we could see relative strength in some of the other sectors as we move into the summer so while the triple cues are looking very bullish we have to acknowledge we're at very critical resistance between 337 and 339 I don't expect to see some crazy parabolic move higher from here so there's really no reason to be overly bullish in the big tech stocks until we can see some type of consolidation and retest of that breakout so manager risk right there at 333 and 327 and that Rising 20 daily moving average and don't let anybody scare you out of your positions make sure your exit strategy is part of your trade plan whether it's for loss or for-profit you need to know exactly when you're exiting your trades and you need to X execute to your plan if your plan is not working at least you can go back and figure out why and you can continue to refine it and become a better Trader and then very quickly I want to show you a weekly chart of Apple stock because if you go back and you look at the bear Market of last year we had a double correction in Apple stock where we finished out two legs to the downside and it does look like we have now double bottomed off of Apple 130 broken back above the August size which was right around 172 and we are now four weeks back above the downtrending channel on the biggest stock in the stock market so when you look at how close apple is to all-time highs or at least retesting all-time highs you can tell that this is not a raging bear Market that everybody wants you to believe in if this was a raging bear Market there is no way Apple stock would be approaching all-time highs and flirting with the fact of breaking out and continuing to going to a brand new all-time high you can see by the moving averages and the price action on this weekly chart of Apple that were in a very strong uptrend and while that doesn't guarantee we have to keep going higher we know the odds are in the favor of continuing to climb higher while wearing these strong bull Trends and we simply need to manage our risk on Apple stock down here between 168 and 170.
so as long as you have stocks like apple that are moving the market higher and strong bull Trends and pushing the indices to higher prices which is likely going to lead to short squeezes you have to understand that the market is a technical thing and right now technically speaking it's in a bull Trend and it's going higher does that guarantee the bear Market won't return or that we won't hit a recession and eventually see the market go to much lower prices of course we know that is a possibility but we need to see it in the chart and we need confirmation through price action and Trend so just to quickly summarize we'll move back over to the S P 500 and yes we acknowledge we are at critical resistance and we're getting a little overextended in the short term which means we're likely due for a two to three day cool down back to the retest of the breakout and if that retest is successful we are looking for a continuation of the bull trend again as Traders we have no care in the world whether we go higher or lower from here we simply want the odds in our favor and with the bull Trend in the bullish price action the odds are still in our favor to buy the dip at support and expect a continuation higher if we break down through critical support and get back into a confirmed downtrend we can instantly adapt by managing our risk and continuing to go with our trade plan with the bear scenario now if you are having any issues with this Market keep in mind that I have two services with the stocks Channel training Discord and I also have Bank trade alerts in both of these Services have kept you on the right side of the trade all year long Bank trade alerts will send you all of your buy and sell alerts for teachable q and s triple Q so you never have to guess what to buy and when to buy and sell it and the stock show and Discord will give you all of your intraday updates and Analysis to help you make those decisions on your own so if you still need help in this market you can check out those links in the description below and just keep remembering there is going to be a lot of noise in the market especially this week with the debt ceiling so it's very important you have a trade plan that is built around objectively following the price action and the trend and with proper risk management don't let people scare you out of your positions if you are exiting a position it should be part of your plan and if you are entering a position it should be part of your plan as well so let the price action in the trend do all of the talking and you're going to do very well in this market if you're using proper risk management
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