저자: Paul—소속:EverythingMoneyInvesting · 외국인
요약 보기
엔비디아는 5년 PER 155배, 시총 6730억 달러로 8단계 분석 기준 고평가. 2012년 주가 3달러→270달러 급등, 작년 실적은 칩 부족 특수로 이상치. 할인현금흐름 모형 상 적정가는 36~90달러 수준으로 제시, 현재 가격이 크게 과도함. 기술적으로는 머리어깨형 패턴과 하락 추세, 200일선(218달러) 이탈 우려 제기. 영상 후반은 유료 구독 홍보 위주.
다듬은 글
Please, check. Welcome back. We'll talk about Nvidia, the chip manufacturer. Today we will look at financial indicators. We will use our software. We'll use a stock analysis tool to show you how much you could pay for it. We'll walk you through our eight-step process, the initial screening. Forget about all the noise and all the nonsense.
What does this company produce and what is its true value? We'll show you all of this in the video as we move forward. Trust Paul and Mo. I assure you, these guys own and manage over a hundred million dollars worth of assets worldwide. We just got home from Mexico and I still have a sunburn on the back of my head.
We'll talk about Nvidia and all the numbers right now . Paul, let me know. Good. Thank you, Seth. Guys, follow us on Everything Money Investing, our also follow us personally and Seth Moe, because we post interesting things. I post a lot about my dog and my girlfriend, all that stuff. Okay, so Nvidia, Nvidia has skyrocketed.
Let's check. This is our Everything Money software. We will move on to the eight pillars tool. Enter Nvidia. Look at this graph over the last 10 years. In 2012, the company's shares were worth $3. They are currently worth $270 with a peak of $345. The price of this company has skyrocketed . So let's see if it's worth it.
Do the financial indicators justify the almost 100- fold growth? So, the market capitalization is $673 billion . Our analysis of the eight pillars begins right now. So, pillar number one, five-year P/E. We want less than 22.5. That's 155. That's a huge X. Pillar number two, we want a 5-year return on invested capital of more than 9%.
This is 13.7. This is a check mark. This shows me that they are doing a good job of generating good cash flow returns from the money . Good. They currently pay a very small dividend, $400 million a year. Guys, remember that dividends are not always safe. You need to compare dividends to free cash flow.
So, just a few lines above in our software. The average free cash flow over 5 years is 4.2 billion. Their free cash flow last year is 7.2. They can easily afford a dividend of $400 million. I'm not worried about them going away, but if you buy them for 0.1% dividends, then I think that's great. move on to the income statement .
Five years ago, revenue was $9 billion. It is now 24.2. Mark. Look at last year's jump, Timo and Seth. From 14.8 to 24 billion in revenue . This is incredible. Pillar number four, we want net income growth over the last five years. So, the mark from 2.58 to 8.21. But then again, look at last year's jump from 3.83 to 8.2.
There was a shortage of chips. A lot of this happened. There was a lot of demand for them, for home use, for web meetings, for all that. A company like Nvidia will have a very good result. I wouldn't bet the future on last year's results. It's probably not very likely that the situation will end very well.
Focus. And that's what P and PE are now...Yes, it's even more expensive. It's actually even more expensive than 155 times because last year was an outlier. Pillar number five: we want the number of shares outstanding to remain the same or decrease. If a company has 10 shares, you own one. You own 10% of the business.
If they buy back two shares, you now own one of eight shares, which is 12.5%. So, you did nothing but own one share, but your ownership stake increased from 10% to 12.5%. This is what we want. We don't want to be washed away. We want a bigger share of the company. So, 5 years ago they had 2.41 billion.
Last year, it was 2.5. This is X. The growth is not much, but it has grown nonetheless. So I'm not that concerned about it, but it's still something to consider. Hmm, actually, by the way, guys, sorry. I always do it wrong. We need to move to the sixth year, which is the end or beginning of the five-year mark, from 2.15 to 2.5.
Okay, so it's actually even more than expected. Okay, pillar number six, we want to look at the company's debt. So, we go back to the main page and look at the 5-year average free cash flow of 4.2 billion. I made my determination that I wanted to multiply this by five. This equals $21 billion. I want their total long-term liabilities to be less than $21 billion .
Good. So, we move on to the balance of our software. We scroll down to the very bottom, and there's 13.2 billion. So, check the box. They have less than the 21 billion we want them to have, which means they have a reasonable level of debt. Based on I, I identified five, based on many indicators that many people remember.
I like to look at things over a long period of time, not just a short one-year period, because one year can have randomness, as we see here with Nvidia. They have 8.3 billion in profit compared to 3.8 a year earlier. This is a coincidence. Okay, our last two metrics are based on free cash flow. So, we move on to the cash flow statement of our software.
Now guys, remember that free cash flow is cash from operating activities minu. You can pay dividend, and reinvest back into yourself. Okay, so we've simplified the math for you. Money for operating activities, leave capital expenditures. We added this free cash flow line to our cash flow statement to simplify the calculations .
5 years ago it was 2.6. Last year, the mark was 7.1. And again , look at the big jump. From 4.2*2 to 7.1. So, the mark. And our last metric, our eighth pillar, we take the 5- year average free cash flow, multiply it by 20 to get the market cap, the starting point for consideration. Is it within normal limits?
So, 4.2*20 is 84 billion dollars. The actual market capitalization is $630 billion. So, according to this, this is a significantly overpriced price. Good. Now, if the company grew 100% per year for the next five years , would I care? I would buy this like crazy. I would say, “I’m fine with that. 100% per year for the next five years, I'll make a lot of money." If it doesn't grow at all , will I like it?
I would hate that. So we created a stock analysis tool, because remember, s. We don't know the future. We have to make assumptions. So we built a stock analysis tool to make these assumptions, input these assumptions, and it comes up with how much we should pay for the company today. So, years of analysis, I'm going to do a 10- year analysis.
As you can see, it gives our figures for 1, 5, and 10 years. We can compare. So, assumptions, I want to make conservative assumptions. Let's say revenue growth of 8, 12, and 16%. Profit margin, I'm going to pick 20, 3, 25, and 27. Free cash flow margin, I'm going to do the same thing. RE, I'm going to choose 13, 15, 17.
The same goes for the price of free cash flow. And finally guys, the desired annual return is 12.5%, because if you can invest in ETFs and get 9 or 10% for investing in stocks, make sure you buy them for less than they are worth, with a free margin of safety and a good margin of safety. Now, for those of you who are going to criticize my assumptions about the impressive free cash flow from the P/E, don't look to history to determine whether or not that's the right number .
Over time, as the company grows bigger and bigger, you should be willing to pay less and less as a P/E and free cash flow. Why? Because the growth potential is lower. If a company is valued at five trillion and a company is valued at 100 million, which one has a better chance of growth? Apparently, a company worth $100 million.
They haven't delved into it yet. So, you should pay less for larger companies. So , we click the analyze button. Boom. Here are the prices. The minimum is 36, the maximum is 90, and somewhere in the middle is about 60. And now it's 269. Paul, this will never happen. You are an idiot. Anyone who believes this should go back and look at all the stocks in 2000.
See how far they fell before they recovered, or if they recovered at all. How long was Amazon the biggest success story of the 2000s. Its price fell from $113 to $6 per share, then rose all the way to $3,500. It still fell 95 % on its way down. So, if you think I'm wrong on this point, I apologize. But I look at this statement as just math, guys.
In the end, it's just math. If I gave you a dollar a year for the rest of your life, you would calculate for me how much it would be worth to you . That's all I do here, except we run the company . You should start looking at every investment as buying a share of a business, not just as a stock price fluctuation .
Because, as Charlie Munger says, if you're not buying a share of the business when you buy stock, what are you buying? Right? That's all. So guys, that's my take on the fundamental analysis of Nvidia's value. If you are attracted to this boring approach to looking at numbers, you can now install software on your phone, our “All About Money” app.
Register. You will understand. Field, show them how. And the reason we built all this software is because when we were making videos about a company, people would come to us and say, "Hey, how can I analyze my own companies so I can do the analysis instead of waiting for you to make a video?" So, here.
You get everything on the main page, which will also be coming soon right here on the righ me and Seth Moe, as well as our exclusive chat room up here. EM Community Chat. You get a stock analysis tool. You get a real estate calculator, a retirement calculator . You get eight-pillar portfolios that allow you to put up to 50 stocks in a portfolio to tell you how all 50 companies are doing at once or 20 companies, it doesn't matter.
But exclusive daily content. We publish one to three videos per day. They are called "A Few Good Minutes." They are wonderful. We create them together with Seth Moe. But the most important thing, guys, is the EM community. We have over 6,000 people who constantly discuss their investment ideas in the community.
Because the great thing about the internet is that it allows all of us who have a certain mindset to come together and discuss our investment ideas. We have people who say, “Hey, I’m looking at blah blah. I'm looking at Fordstock. What do you guys think? And people are having a nice, exciting conversation about it.
All this is available in our tool. All this for less than $1 per day. Register now . $1 a day gives you all of this for the price of a cup of coffee. You get all this for $1 a day. Register. And the best part is that the price you sign up for today is your fixed price because the price increases every month.
But you are locked into the price you sign up for today. So a dollar a day gives you all of this , which is easy to understand, guys. Nvidia is another one of these tech companies that is currently on a downward trend. And this may be an exaggeration that I'm drawing, but let's look at this pattern that we see here.
So, we have here your two eyes and something like your ugly face diagram. So these are, in my opinion, ugly face patterns after you go up, they fall, and they fall aggressively. Also, we have a gap that needs to be filled, at about $250 per share, $240 per share. So, there's a lot of negativity surrounding the guys from Nvidia .
You had a crazy takeoff. Everything has come to the surface of the metaverse, and this verse and that verse are about what goes up must come down. Especially when you get this technology madness , and we're definitely seeing that right now. The trend is downward. She's not even halfway there yet. It does n't seem like it's going to stop anytime soon .
I can definitely see this thing going back to the $200 level, which may sound aggressive, but you can definitely do it. Let's open the daily chart and just see what levels we need to break. Uh , perfect. So if we break through this 100 -day moving average , where we are right now, if we can break it down like this, and then you make a push to the 200-day moving average.
There's little that can stop it until you hit 218. And if it breaks 218, watch out. Now everything about this stock is negative. And this has been going on for several months, starting at the end of last year. Additionally, there is very little trading volume every day. So Nvidia is one of those stocks that is seeing a really big uptick.
And if you noticed it, good. Now notice the decline. Come and learn how to sell short positions with me. This is another great stock due to the volatility it has for day trading. Excellent volume, stochastic below 20%, candles are being absorbed downwards. And this is a great stock, perfect for entry from a day trading perspective.
Good volume over 80 %, candles are being absorbed upwards. Guys, Nvidia is a stock you should add to your watchlist. Add it to your watchlist from a day trading, long term and intraday perspective and try to sell short positions and make money on it while it is falling. If you want to learn these rules, join me.
You will gain access to the Trading 101 series , which contains all the rules you need to succeed. A series about hired traders, consisting of six stocks that I update daily. Exclusive Saturday Seminars: One Saturday a month I host an open Q& A session for anyone who values stock prices, as well as a chat community of over a thousand people who come and join me, and surprisingly, Nvidia prices are a bit inflated.
Stay with us. We will update the information when this company reaches our best results. Your task is to be patient and wait patiently for this moment to buy. We'll tell you when. This is our version of the video. Final like. See you in the next video.
Comments 0