저자: Kevin · 외국인
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테슬라는 AI/로보택시 기대(희망 요인)에 기대 밸류에이션이 지탱되고 있으나 실제 이익 기반이 약하다. 저가형 모델(2.5) 출시와 대량생산으로 판매 성장과 FSD 데이터 확보를 해자로 지켜야 한다. 로보택시·옵티머스는 2030년대 이후에야 실질 매출이 기대되며, 정치 이슈 분리를 위해 임시 CEO가 필요하다. 경기침체 시 테슬라의 방어력은 과거보다 약하다는 주장이다.
다듬은 글
me Kevin here it's time to have a realistic conversation about a Tesla stock let's make it clear we've all seen headlines about price Target revisions that big companies like JP Morgan or delivery estimates this none of that I think is really core to the long-term vision of Tesla mostly because I I think we've all come to realize at this point when a stock goes up the price targets magically follow the stock up and when a stock goes down the inverse happens so usually I think price targets aren't worth paying attention to I think what's more worth paying attention to is sort of uh longer term outlooks uh from analysts uh and right now longer term outlooks at least on an average from Wall Street uh are that Tesla's going to grow earnings per share somewhere around 30% per year uh on an EPS growth basis which is great uh this is fantastic growth it's not that 50% from years back but the 30% is still pretty good going forward it actually puts Tesla at around $225 per share it puts them at right around a 2.6 peg in case you're ever looking at those price to earnings growth measures I usually like 2.6 as a software Peg where a more manufacturing Peg I like to go with around a six which unfortunately puts Tesla a little bit closer to that 135 to 140 range now that doesn't mean Tesla stock needs to go down to this range but what it does mean is if analysts look at Tesla as a Manufacturing Company one way we can actually increase this here is by increasing the earnings per share of Tesla in the near term and if Wall Street wants to Value Tesla as a software company which obviously we know it's a fantastic artificial intelligence play then we'd have even more earnings to base a higher multiple off of which would be great for Tesla's valuation so both of these numbers could be substantially higher with more earnings and that's actually what I'd like to focus on in this video if somebody asked me Kevin what would you do and I'm not applying for the job I got plenty going on with house hack in fact I think having less on my plate is very important as a CEO I've personally found that if you have too many irons in the fire you might not be paying as much attention as you should to your core business which isn't great and some of that could be happening with Elon so that's why I wanted to put this video together of what would I do if I were solely the CEO of t and the first thing that I would do is I would think of what are we really good at and where are we making a lot of money and the first answer to that is mass production and I would love to mass produce more Vehicles now obviously we're somewhat demand limited right now we've got plenty of capacity and plenty of expansion capability at our existing gigafactories to produce many more Vehicles unfortunately I don't think mass production is really being highlighted right now mostly because Elon believes why manufacture a model 2 or a $25,000 vehicle why bother the future is autonomous well I don't disagree that the future is autonomous I Just Disagree in the timing and I think you actually arm yourself to be more prepared for an autonomous future by on behalf of Tesla making as much money as Tesla can right now to make the necessary Investments to get all the way to autonomy now how do you do that well my opion you should launch what I call the Tesla Model 2.5 and the model 2.5 is really a paired down model 3 and that way you don't have to rebuild sort of a design of a vehicle but instead what you're doing is you're going with a smaller battery pack you still have a four-door vehicle and you're trying to get that price point to $25,000 and you're going to include FSD is standard now that sounds wild well there are incredible margins on FSD and there are incredible margins on selling larger battery packs and we know that with tariff Warfare and input costs some things are more expensive today though fortunately lithium prices have fallen off of a cliff but what happens here is you create finally the growth story for that manufacturing Peg again at Tesla it creates a strong fundamental foundation for not only the stock but also the brand as a brand that's growing and not stagnating a grand a brand brand that has sales growth people are nervous about newish car companies Tesla's still newer I mean it's been a while around for a while but certainly not the Legacy age of like you know Ford or GM but one of the benefits of growth is people don't have this fear over oh my goodness you know what if what if the company goes bankrupt quite literally somebody asked me the other day hey I I own a rivian if if they go bankrupt who's going to take care of the service for my car and I'm like okay hold on we're a few steps ahead here we're we're not close to that yet uh obviously rivi and we could talk about their fundamental analysis and their balance sheet issues separately uh but the point of that is this is in folks Minds so when you grow the company you apply the brand has pricing power even if the margins may only be let's say the margins are 10% at this level we'll put them in at 10% margin yes the margins are lower but what we'd be able to do is actually pick up more of the remaining EV tax credit that are available yeah we expect a lot of those might go away but they haven't gone away yet Trump's tax plan isn't here yet so milk as many of those EV tax credits as you can you don't have to retool the entire factory set instead strip down the battery and maybe some other more unnecessary features you know strip out some of the the I don't know seed heaters or or something right there are plenty of things that you could do to strip this down get to a 10% margin and sell an affordable four-door vehicle for mass production now the reason you include FSD in my opinion is because you want all of the data you can get your hands on that is Tesla's moat right now Tesla is hands down the best Adas that exists that is the uh driver assistance software it's the best that exists there's hands down no question Mercedes BMW any of these companies don't hold the candle Tesla now the benefit of maximizing your user base now even and expanding it even more than you've ever done before is you keep your moat see a concern that I have for Tesla is that Tesla used to probably have something like a 5-year moat and I think that Moe is starting to shrink if we look at Chinese manufacturers like a byd with their 5minute quick charge or their ad ass technology they're actually already getting pretty dang close to what Tesla's doing but in terms of American manufacturers a lot of them are probably going to have to rely on an Nvidia Drive platform and I think that's still going to take a few years of real neural network development uh to get them close to Tesla so Tesla still has a lead but unfortunately that lead is narrowing I would argue that Tesla used to have a 5-year lead and we're probably down to about a 2-year lead right now and one of the reasons I think that lead is shrinking is because we're focusing Less on getting FSD in the hands of more people we're FOC focusing less on getting more Tesla vehicles and the Tesla brand into the hands of more people and instead I'm not entirely sure what the focus is now I know that might sound wild because obviously Elon Musk told us oh well you know cyber cabin Optimus great but we can do both see that's what blows my mind the R&D side of Tesla just like any company the R&D side of the company can continue Full Speed Ahead or full steam ahead if you will we could still manufacture or begin manufacturing cyber caps and perfecting our full self-driving technology for cyber cabs while at the same time expanding the brand in a positive and affordable way getting FSD into the hands of more people and promoting the mission that Tesla stands for which is a cleaner energy future with higher MPG on you know if you adjust towards gasoline the the miles per gallon you're getting on a Tesla is substantially better at an affordable price with the safety so saving human lives this is the core of Tesla if Tesla leaned into the core Mission here and we actually got to growth again where we were now showing hey look yes we're maybe selling the vehicles at a lower margin but look we're growing 1.8 million Vehicles easy we're now at 24 we're now at 28 we're now at 34 oh by the way R&D is almost done with the Cyber cab by the way we're now cranking on the semitruck how long is the semi-truck been delayed you know we finally started to build the shell of the Cyber uh sorry not the Cyber truck the Cyber semi- we finally started to build the shell of the semi facility but as far as we can tell that's just the shell we still don't actually know if the semi is going to be capable of real load hauling especially in colder climates we don't know that yet we have hope but we don't know that yet what we do know is that Tesla can Mass manufacture cheaper cars and save lives and support a sustainable future and this is what Tesla should Double Down on while expanding their FSD Moe for at least their Hardware that's currently in vehicles we know that Hardware 3 is likely going to have to get upgraded to Hardware 4 at a cost for Tesla uh now Elon actually suggests it's a good thing that so many people didn't upgrade to full self-driving under Hardware 3 because he acknowledges Tesla's going to have to foit the bill for those computer upgrades but when is that going to happen right we've seen the Roadster that was promised what s years ago and we still haven't seen those deliveries but okay let's not our Mass Market vehicle focus on what Tesla's good at inexpensive manufacturing now what about the other benefits or the upshots of Optimus and Robo taxis and the relationship with Trump well unfortunately each of these three items is what I call a hope Factor that's not to say that I'm bearish on any of these three factors it's just not core to what matters for Tesla's actual valuation right now which which is a multiple of earnings per share it's very difficult right now to factor in how much money is Robo taxi going to make not only because we have the competitive elements of you know Amazon zuk's getting closer uh in fact they're doing Robo taxi rides right now in um in San Francisco mind you that probably has zero hope built into the Amazon valuation it's actually a a brilliant Trojan Horse if you need exposure to Robo taxis without it being Tesla Amazon uh this I don't think there's a single analyst pricing in a dime of Robo taxi revenue for Amazon and they're actually doing self-driving rides right now in San Francisco now that's that's not to say that they'll be as scalable as Tesla I think Tesla has a lot of advantages my simple argument is while we are focusing on the R&D future right you've got the r uh well I should do like that there you go R&D future while you focus on this future which is built on Optimus potential uh lower taxation or Le you know more conducive business regulation for for Tesla which I don't really know that Tesla needs a lot more regulatory support I actually think Nitsa has been uh in many examples actually relatively reasonable to Tesla my favorite was when uh they were investigating Elon mode where they took away the nag and rather than getting Elon in trouble they sent him a letter and said hey what did you learn from not having the nag where you have to touch the steering wheel I've always maintained that I thought it was unsafe that you have to Wobble the steering wheel or put pressure in One Direction on the steering wheel while you're driving on the highway just to tell it you're there just because of the risk of accidental disengagements whereas uh the the non nag feature and now the pay attention feature I think is is much safer uh and I think that was done in Partnership basically with Regulators so I don't think Regulators are all bad I don't know how much regulation you really need to open up for Tesla the optim future uh and then of course the robo taxi future you know folks say hey well you know Robo taxis that's where you need the regulatory support but do you the the robotaxi support uh is already in existence in places like Texas or California where self-driving is a potential already so I don't know that you need that much more regulatory support while while you prove a concept the states are already providing that support so on one hand you have this and then on the other hand uh what you really should do is prop up as much as possible your manufacturing unfortunately I think that Elon is distracted with his vision of the future which I agree is a great vision but it is not one that is near term useful to the Tesla Mission because you could do both of these and and that's what confuses me with $20 billion of free cash why are we not tripling down on manufacturing the cheaper model that was promised rather than just cheaper variants they heavily implied that there would be a new model now we have cheaper variants and I understand my argument is here fine if we're going to go with the cheaper variant model then let's do it let's get a smaller battery pack let's strip what we can let's get to the $25,000 car and why don't we deliver what we promised especially in the face of plummeting lithium uh battery pack prices anyway so one argument uh that you do you go all in on manufacturing while at the same time you don't take away from the robo taxi de uh and the Optimus development but the other thing that we have to consider in the valuation over the last uh four three three to four months uh is we've had a lot of Hope the Trump trade the robot taxi trade the Optimus trade we actually need to start showcasing and delivering the product so let's deliver more earnings here but let's now showcase what Optimus is actually functionally doing within Tesla now we see Snippets and videos like the Optimus catching a ball or sort of moving you know items in and out of a box but we want to see some real use cases I want to start seeing some Optimus robots unloading a truck walking from the truck and bringing uh you know boxes with actual product in it uh and and this I think creates a uh reasonable way for analysts to go okay now we could start valuing this see it's cool when you see Optimus catch a ball but catching a ball doesn't make money what makes money is Freight unloading doing something uh and now analysts especially with the help of Tesla you know Tesla could say look we're saving X many man hours or whatever that could be calculated into an an earnings per share projection which is hard to do today but then it actually supports the stock supports the brand a little cut off that just says EPS here uh the same thing with Robo taxis where do we sit right now on Ro oh there's Lauren on the other hand something that you could be doing with the robo taxi is showing Robo taxis potentially sh you know bringing people from parking lots to the front of the facility start showing some more use cases of how we're actually using the robo taxis now Tesla did do this in one aspect where we saw Tesla sort of self-driving themselves from the factory to uh to the port if you will um it'd be nice to see more of this of people getting in and engaging with the vehicle and I think that's all going to come we know this is part of the R&D future uh so I think from a marketing point of view those things would help but by and large one of the largest or most important things that Tesla could do right now uh is uh get politics out of its life that's going to be very difficult uh see Tesla has such a wonderful team of of designers and engineers and researchers and workers uh Tesla did a smart thing a few years ago where they showcased the entire team the panel of workers at Tesla uh that uh that were leading the company unfortunately many of whom aren't at Tesla anymore or many of whom who have also sold quite a bit of the stock I think it would be wise to Showcase that team again and potentially for Elon at least temporarily uh assign sort of an interim CEO to the company and let somebody else run Tesla and actually focus on Tesla fulltime so I would argue that an interim CEO would help distance some of this political hate that Tesla gets from Tesla uh and and separate Elon for a moment while actually having somebody who can then fully focus on you know what we do need to focus on uh a model to in some more scale we do need to at the same time focus on scaling up our manufacturing focus on showing what we're doing in the research and development side and actually utilizing the cash we have available if we have all of this cash to expand production in America what are the plans to start doing that let's do it are we going to double the size of Giga Texas or do we have too many Foundation issues at the factory over there literally because of where they built it topic probably for a different video uh then do we you know start an Ohio or Detroit facility where uh you now all of a sudden we could compete with in the location uh and take advantage of some of the supply chains that exist in those regions for manufacturing Teslas Manufacturing buildout in conjunct function with a lower cost model while showcasing some of the advances that we're not seeing right now on a regular basis for the future along with an interim CEO I think are the most critical next steps for Tesla in the meantime Tesla is probably going to face hardship mostly because Tesla in a portfolio today is a defined support of Elon Musk this means unfortunately some fund managers have to remove Tesla from people's portfolios because of the relationship to Elon Musk I think an interim CEO could at least help with some of this uh and really I don't think anybody questions or or like people are trying to vandalize starlinks I we do see starlink contracts getting canceled but it's not like they're looking to vandalize starlinks or vandalize rocket ships mostly because I think that with space X Elon has enough distanced himself where where the company almost looks and feels like it's running itself you know it's not like we're getting these public earnings calls on a regular basis uh to where I think that same at least separate feeling you know obviously he hold starlink and SpaceX events or he'll go to the launches uh but there's enough of a distance between SpaceX and the starlink product in Elon uh that you have less hate towards what they're doing especially now this you know picking up our astronauts at the space station which is incredible incredible Technologies uh you know catching catching the the sort of Mars Rock I mean these things are amazing right but there's enough of a distance between Elon and SpaceX SpaceX doesn't seem to be as much of a victim as Tesla's and I think that's mostly because Elon is living mostly at Doge in the white house uh and then when it comes to caring about Tesla all we really get focus on uh is the future of Robo taxi and how close the Cyber cap is but if this is what we're hinging the future of the company on which is what Elon tells us right don't invest in Tesla stock until unless you think you know full self-driving is going to be a 100% success well then there shouldn't be a surprise that as we get less of our CEO and less or or fewer Robo tax C updates that all of a sudden all we have left to look at are deliveries and we didn't get a promised lower cost car we're barely getting some refreshes to variant and we're not really getting what was promised and so it's no surprise the stock is selling down now in a recessionary environment all stocks are going to go down almost certainly so we don't really need to consider that aspect right now uh although I do think if we had a recession now Tesla would be less recession resilient than ever before mostly because if if we did have a recession in 2022 your white collar workers had plenty of cash and jobs available to keep buying Teslas and affording Teslas rates were also still lower for the first half of 2022 today the opposite is true there there's a lack of available white call or work and uh people are who are switching jobs are starting to take significant pay cuts versus what they were making before just to have work uh and so this this could make Tesla a little bit more sensitive again because still catering to that higher income audience where I do think there are opportunities to cater to a lower income audience one thing that Tesla is doing obviously is they subsidizing lease rates and interest rates now with the 0% APR and all this but ultimately people are still smart they look at that sticker price and they realize hey you know why am I going to pay $35,000 or $33,000 or whatever it is for a car when I can get a you know $25,000 car or even a $22,000 car like a you know a camera I think they're somewhere around 24K now and not have the potential brand issues or the vandalism issues that you get with the Tesla at the moment while at the same time you actively have a CEO who's saying hey the future is Robo taxi we're basically going to focus Less on our manufacturing side that that make seems to make me a little less interested in wanting to buy a TLA and I think that could affect other folks as well because ah you may as well wait wait for the robo taxi cyber cab my take there now uh as far as uh the potential of us being able to loop our vehicles into sort of the robo taxi Fleet unfortunately I think that's a very long time away in fact I would argue that Robo taxis are a very long time away as well and that's why I think it's so important to Triple down on manufacturing with the excess cash you have subsidize those margins a little bit and take market share mostly because my belief is we probably won't actually see uh like Tesla Robo taxes where we're able to sort of invest in vehicles and throw them into the fleet until at least the 2030s I hate to say it because it just it sounds bearish but I have this mindset that whether we do or don't there's a chance of going through a recession between the next four to five years uh that will slow investment and capital expenditures we also still haven't gotten to the phase yet where which is still a very painful phase that you have to go through where the robot taxes are good but they're not perfect and then they accidentally cause an accident or they kill someone you're just going to get set back years in a regulatory environment uh Trump's only going to be here for until 2028 and if people are dying then even even Trump can't save the day with regulation uh and you know come January 2029 somebody could crimp down those regulations again so I still think there's quite a bit of a way to go to get to a robo taxi future and and I just don't see it until the 2030s and that's where I look and say do we really want to be stagnant on the manufacturing side at 0% growth or potentially negative growth for the next 5 years when we could be taking market share we have the margin we have the best 8s technology in the world why not make Tesla great again
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