저자: 미상 · 외국인
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마크 로버의 테슬라 자율주행 테스트 논란을 다룸. 로버가 FSD 대신 오토파일럿으로 테스트했고 충돌 직전 오토파일럿이 해제된 정황을 분석. NHTSA 사례상 오토파일럿 해제 후 1초 내 충돌이 많다는 점을 근거로 로버의 혼란이 신빙성 있다고 봄. 루미나(LIDR)는 실적 발표(3/20) 직전 18% 급등했으나 연간 적자 구조, 고객 집중도(한 고객 48%), 재무 취약성이 지적됨. 테슬라 시총은 약 500억 달러 하락.
다듬은 글
the mark roer versus Tesla drama is intensifying Tesla stocked down about $50 billion at the time of this recording down 6.41% at the moment of this recording while at the same time the company that was promoting lar products in Mark roer's video is up 177% now mind you much smaller company but still worth around $30 million of market share increase we have a lot to talk about in this video a response from Mark robber a response from luminar and what do we think about the financials of luminar is it is it a stock to pay attention to or what are the risk factors on that one well let's get into all of it but first we have to start with why why did they edit an iPhone out to show a Google phone this is a little odd but this was part of the mark Rober video yesterday as well and it wasn't mentioned by me yesterday I didn't think of it as as majorly significant but it is worth mentioning this is the image we see as a still frame in the actual video where you could see a Google pixel phone center here with the Google logo upright and two lens camera but for some reason this is actually just an edited in representation of the phone that was actually used given that the reflection that you get in not only the lar Imaging but also the glass reflection of the Tesla center console is a thre lensed iPhone with the Apple logo leading a lot of people to raise questions around where has Integrity gone in editing or journalism if you will mostly because there is this understanding that team mobile and pixel partnered with Mark Robert so a lot of folks are wondering hey like does the world really just only revolve around money and sponsorships and Partnerships well good news no sponsorships or Partnerships or pitches in this video just facts and detail like how interesting yesterday I mentioned that luminar brilliantly disappeared in fact I wrote that in my caption here luminar brilliantly disappears I talked about how luminar was really good at washing their hands of being involved in the Tesla test probably because they did didn't want to endorse the way markk Robert was doing the tests especially since Mark didn't use full self-driving Tesla's latest and greatest most advanced available self-driving is technology why would you use a lesser technology for your test we still haven't gotten an answer on that but what we do know is the one thing that luminar did to tie themselves to Mark was they put a banner across their website saying luminar liar tested by former NASA Apple engineer and current YouTuber Mark ruber and they linked the YouTube video which I spoke with an attorney about this and they argued that because luminar links to Mark's video they're basically endorsing Mark's video and that clever handwashing they were doing they may have just gotten a little bit more dirt mixed in which isn't good but luminar may have realized the liability that they may have even slightly gotten themselves exposed to because that message is now gone no more reference to Mark's video it could be because of social media backlash or it could be because of liability concerns it's also a lot of talk around what kind of legal liabilities Mark Rober could be exposed to and we talk about the lam act in this video which is very different than people just sharing an opinion online because you or I as individual people can share an opinion all we want but when a business is cooperating with another business to defame another business that's where the Lama act and fraud or false advertising comes in this is a tort claim this is very very different than sort of a oh you know that person called me a liar or whatever people do that all the time everybody has their own personal opinions businesses are held to a higher standard hence why that law exists and why Mark actually has serious legal liability I spoke with my son about this and now I'm going to get into the financials and some other details as well but I spoke with my 9-year-old who's a fan of Mark and his opinion was Mark should do another test like Mark is known for testing why doesn't he do a fair test of the Tesla full self-driving against this you know Wy coyote wall that would potentially be a way of redeeming himself especially since it also appears that now there's this dug up post from 2020 showing Mark roer suggesting hey thanks to the 600,000 individual donors from 191 countries that helped with their uh you know nonprofit here and some help from my buddy Austin Russell Russell for the final push how interesting Austin Russell for the final push also known as the CEO of luminar the company whose valuation just increased by a good old $34 million now it's a far cry from the $50 billion apple or apple it's a far cry from the $50 billion that Tesla lost in Market valuation today but In fairness there could be other aspects or reasons as to why Tesla's valuation is falling today for example here's a uh poster on X who says they they go by markets for Mayhem markets and Mayhem I guess JP Morgan expects Tesla to reports its worst quarterly deliveries in three years we struggle to think of anything anagist an similar in history of the automotive industry in which a brand has lost so much value so quickly now this is JP Morgan's argument and you know some people anti- Tesla are like that's right screw you Tesla and people on the other side are like n man you know now now they're opening their base to more right inclined voters and right leaning voters and uh they they might pick up the slack and buy those tests whatever this video isn't about that it's actually about some more facts and numbers such as Mark roer's response which we see right here mark on his X says here's the raw footage of my Tesla going through the wall not sure why it disengages 17 frames before hitting the wall but my feet weren't touching the brakes or the gas and if we look closely we can see the full acceleration here and you'll be able to see that there isn't any indication of braking or brake lights that occur on the vehicle I'll go ahead and play it in full here but what I want you to pay attention to as we Freeze from froze this yesterday and went through it frame by frame is that autopilot for some reason does disengage right before hitting the wall and Mark seems equally confused by this again of course people question mark why weren't you using FSD but you know okay whatever because In fairness it it like there are arguments on both sides here one a you didn't use FSD two or B why did you turn on autopilot so late it's like you barely gave it a chance to actually like take in its surroundings so to speak and then of course on the other hand people say maybe Tesla's at fault here maybe there's a bug in Tesla's autopilot software and we're going to dive into that in just a moment but pay close attention here all right autopilot gets enabled here was that about four or 5 Seconds go H that's less see he actually fails to enable it there holy shoot so you can actually see autopilot disappeared well first of all Mark struggles to turn it on look at the struggle to get it on here so for some reason he struggles to actually turn it on I wonder if autopilot like I I really wish I could read what the warning was as to why autopilot was struggling to turn on who knows maybe it was recognizing there was some form of issue but you'll notice here we're 8 seconds into this clip and the impact occurs at right about here 13 seconds so within 5 Seconds of engaging autopilot is is when the impact occurs and usually if autopilot is on within 5 Seconds of an impact it's considered an autopilot related accident this was right on the line like the last second it could have possibly been turn on to start functioning not sure how much that matters because technically the camera should be running in the background anyway prepared to turn on it's not like the camera should need 5 Seconds to boot up to start functioning but what's more important here is that take a look closely here as we get and approach the wall we saw this in the freeze frames yesterday we see that Rainbow Road disappear now why is that rainbow road disappearing we have the same message up from before so it's not like there's a new message there's also no emergency breaking there's no please hurry and stop warning there's nothing all we get is and it doesn't look like Mark is doing anything we don't see brake lights popping onto the Tesla here right if he tapped the brakes it would take over maybe if he turned the wheel too rapidly it would turn like it would turn off autopilot but we don't see that we don't see a brake tap here all we see is autopilot just disappear into the background and this leaves a lot of people wondering wait a second is this actually more of a potential Tesla flaw than a mark robber flaw well this is where we can actually look to some precedent on this has actually occurred in a way that the nhtsa has discovered oopsy dupsies around this take a look at this so uh this is the national highway Transportation uh safety administration argues in a report that as they investigated 16 crashes on average in these crashes where Tesla's autopilot features were on and the car ended up hitting a stationary vehicle of those 16 crashes on average autopilot was running but quote AB boarded vehicle control less than 1 second prior to its first impact wow well that somewhat shifts the scales here for a moment because remember Mark Robert promised that he would use autopilot for the remaining tests and then there was a large concern over wait minut like why was it off before the test did you do multiple takes like you know was this disingenuous or is it a test the problem see now of a sudden The Story Goes a lot deeper especially since the nhtsa has some form of precedent of noticing the similar issue now this doesn't absolve why there was a child standing behind the wall for added Dr a drama effect which felt like a Tesla smear it doesn't solve why you didn't spend the $99 for a one-month subscription to have access to full self-driving technology it doesn't resolve some of those Unearthed issues but it does potentially explain why Mark seems just as confused oh sorry that's the we did it post uh let's go find the last post of marks there we go we'll live refresh that there we go here's the raw footage of my Tesla going through the wall not sure why it disengages 17 seconds uh frames rather before hitting the wall but my feet weren't touching the brakes for the gas now I talked to my son about this and I agree with him we find that Mark's confusion is potentially credible here looking at the video and aligning us with the nhtsa it seems likely that there is true confusion here again it doesn't solve other issues of the test but there does seem to be some real confusion here this is going to be something that Tesla probably needs to address again doesn't solve the problem in terms of why we didn't use FSD but let's talk about luminar as a company for a moment because was there potentially this upcoming knowledge that they wanted to pump their stock right before their earnings note that the company reports earnings on March 20th today's the 17th so in just a few days luminar is going to report earnings and if you look at this chart which is the 1 hour chart you know this this jump of 18% looks really successful but that success really Fades away quite literally when you go out to the day chart or Worse the week chart you could see this had a lot of covid 2020 enthusiasm you'll see that the stock went up to $717 per share which is misleading because they did a reverse split I think it it was either 10 for one or 12 for one so it never actually got high they did a reverse split because they received a delisting notice from NASDAQ NASDAQ basically said hey you're all stuck is sucking so freaking badly you all need to fix it so they conducted a reverse split and now you know their stock is trading for $56 uh and and they're up 18% just before earnings here now something to know beyond this has to do with the financials of luminar and remember my goal isn't to try to take sides here I I I want to provide you as much unbiased information as possible so ultimately you can make your own decision you could make your decisions about Mark about uh Tesla you know demands for follow-up videos or test or how Tesla should respond you I I personally think it'd be kind of cool if they did some kind of FSD partnership and came up with some sort of positive solution you know they did a mark and luminar test do a Tesla and and Mark Tess though you know I I don't know maybe the relationship would be too bitter as a result of uh of of this test for that to happen so when we actually look at the financials of this company it's worth remembering they report earnings in 3 days so a lot of these numbers are going to change rapidly but there are definitely some weird things in here such as uh the company in a 9-month period uh is losing less money than they used to lose which is good uh they used to lose uh $422 million in a 9month period now they're losing about $228 million in a 9month period which works out to about 71 m milon of loss per quarter that's going to become really important when we look at their balance sheet so just remember they lose about $71 million per quarter so every 3 months $71 million are going out the door to put that a little bit more clearly every single day they lose about $788,000 so if you've ever wanted you know a home that was like a nice four bedom 2 and a half bath with a pool and it cost $780,000 they burn one of those up and the land somehow every single day anyway uh in addition to their actual net losses from operations they're writing down inventory they've been writing down inventory in 23 they've done it in 24 usually this occurs as a product becomes obsolete because they came out with a new and better product or it's just aging because they failed to sell it not entirely clear what the case is here but it is interesting they've spent money about in 23 they spent about2 billion to acquire Seagate you know the hard drive company their liar business which to me is just a sign that Seagate bailed and the way this company finances a lot of their work is through selling stock so basically diluting shareholders for a money losing business or issuing debt now I'm generally okay with businesses that are making money issuing stock because usually when they issue $100 worth the stock they can make money with it right like let's say you I don't know are a real estate company you're going to ISS $100 worth of stock but you turn that into $120 or $130 worth of real estate everybody wins in that case but in this case it's quite the opposite every $100 of stock you issue you're losing all of it and more so and that's because you don't have a profitable business now this is skewy but in their last quarterly report they say they had a positive net income but the only reason they had a positive net income is because they took a 140 $7 million quote gain on extinguishment of debt if you actually look at their business this is a business that has $15 million of money coming into it okay so so imagine this imagine that you had a lemonade stand and you sold $15 worth of lemonades how much did it cost you to sell that or run that Lemonade Stand well to sell the lemons it cost you $29 see right here $29 billion so you got $15 but it cost you $29 to buy the lemons and then to run the business from your home office or whatever it cost you another $100 to run the lemonade business so while it you felt good about selling $15 worth of lemonade you actually ended up with losses from operations of about $115 in this case $15 million in just three months not a very sustainable business model especially since you're propping it up with uh funny Arcane accounting to make it seem like you're profitable in the quarter right as you do this partnership with Mark Robert interesting math but it's not just that it's worth noting that they have massive customer concentration which creates some real risks as well if you go to page 34 and to 36 in their last Financial filings you'll find a few things first you'll see that one customer accounted for 48% of the company's Revenue in the 9 months ending September 30th 2024 and then three other customers accounted for 32 14 and 14% that's for the 3 months ending in September 30th so you can look at this the point is they have customer concentration if one customer bails they make a whole lot less money but it's not just that one of the big Partnerships that they have with Volvo which is an upside to the company and a lot of people are excited about this partnership in Volvo just started facing a whole new set of uncertainties now you should be able to figure this one out yourself I'll give you the answer but I'm going to read this one to you and I want you to like the first thing that pops into your mind here is probably going to be right you ready for this we announced our start of production for Volvo cars at the manufacturing facility in Mexico in April of 20124 and began shipping production lar sensors for the Volvo ex90 with yields continuously improving throughout 2024 hm okay so we're going to sell cars with our product made in Mexico what could a potential problem be with that thesis oh I don't know Trump tariffs anyway so look this is a this is a very interesting what all is going on here you have a company that is losing money hand over fist they don't know how to run a lemonade stand but they have this thesis that lidar is the future and a lot of people argue that maybe liar is the future now is it luminar as a company Maybe not maybe they haven't figured it out uh other people argue hey look if you can't see through the fog as a person why should the car be expected to see through the fog a full self-driving car that can't see should just pull over just like a human do you really need lar to be able to drive through fog that you couldn't see through otherwise and then of course there are arguments that the type of fog that luminar used is favorable to uh liar technology whereas real fog is it favorable to lar technology and lar technology wouldn't work anyway it's worth noting that that Volvo they're installing this technology onto is an $80,000 vehicle it's a premium SUV or luxury luxury SUV and so you really have to scratch your head there and say okay you know what's better full self-driving that's 99% perfect but accessible to everyone or full self-driving that's only accessible to 5% of people or 10% of people and it is more perfect like 99.5% perfect I I don't know makes that's going to be something that Society will have to sort of evaluate as as we go towards a future of self-driving cars but I have to say you've got some very interesting data sets that have come out just in the last 24 hours here some real like still no answers as to why they didn't test full self-driving in the mark Roper video no answers as to why all of a sudden they had to edit what appears to be an iPhone that they used to video into a Google and then did a bad job editing it which kind of is like a stealth and free advert M for Apple which is kind of cool people are also wondering if Disney is going to do anything I would argue no because too many children like Mark and you know children are going to see past this and I don't blame that at all uh but luminar is an interesting one because it's running today on enthusiasm on sort of this media attention and earnings coming up but are its earnings actually going to be any different from what we've previously seen worth paying attention to the trend of the stock isn't exactly the best and clearly there's some friendship between the CEO of this company and Demar but in addition to that we've got to find out hey what's Tesla's stance on this because they just evaporated $50 billion of market value maybe we should ask the CEO whenever he's done with his work in the White House
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