저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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결론: 캐시 우드는 테슬라 목표주가 2000달러(약 5조 달러 시총, 5년 기준)를 제시했지만, 진행자들은 이를 비현실적이라고 비판하며 테슬라 하락을 예상한다. 캐시 우드 주장: 테슬라는 로보택시 플리트로 막대한 가치를 창출하며, 로보택시 시장 전체는 8~10조 달러 규모로 본다. 2027년 기준 목표 기대가치는 약 2000달러이며, 베어 케이스 1400달러, 불 케이스 2510달러 범위를 제시했다. 5년 투자 기간을 전제한다. 진행자 비판: 5조 달러 시총을 달성하려면 연 5000억 달러 매출이 필요하고, 차량 가격 5만 달러 기준 약 1억 대 판매가 필요하다고 계산한다. 이는 2022년 전 세계 신차 판매(약 6700만 대)를 초과하는 수치다. 수익성 문제: 테슬라의 2023년 1분기 영업이익률은 11.4%로 하락했고, 매출총이익률은 약 23%다. 진행자는 순이익률 10~20%를 가정해도 연간 5000만 대 이상 판매가 필요하다고 본다. 인프라·기술 리스크: 많은 지역에서 신차 판매가 적고, 충전 네트워크가 부족하며, 로보택시는 규제와 기술 장벽이 크다고 지적한다. 진행자는 4년 내 현실화를 회의적으로 본다. 자율주행 데이터: 캐시 우드는 테슬라 FSD 사고율(320만 마일당 1건)이 평균 차량(50만 마일당 1건)보다 낮다고 주장했으나, 진행자는 이를 근거로 보기 어렵다고 반박한다. 진행자 전망: 진행자들은 5년 내 테슬라 주가가 100달러 아래로 떨어질 것이라 예측하며, 캐시 우드를 역사상 최악의 투자자 중 하나로 평가한다. 출연자 전망: 캐시 우드는 테슬라 장기 상승(2000달러)을 전망한다. 진행자는 하락을 전망한다.
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backed by popular demand more reaction videos we pull our subscribers subscribe to the channel if you don't right now I'm sure at the end of the video you'll either love me or hate me that's usually the way it is in my real life and I have the people around me right now who actually do love me um so we do these reaction videos and I'm told this is going to be a doozy we'll see so I'm gonna expose this thing right now Mo said cheese I'm assuming it's Kathy Wood I didn't why do we do this Tim is top holding in her Arc Innovation fund her Flagship fund and Kathy Wood joins us now exclusively Kathy it's so great to have you on the show thanks for being with us clown thank you Morgan happy to be here clowns to discuss with you but I do want to know Tesla uh she's a clown yesterday and specifically the fact that the operating margin dropped pretty dramatically to 11.4 percent certainly in focus for trading today does this change your outlook or your thesis around town oh she's very pretty I've never seen her before really yeah curiously um we want Tesla to scale its units shut up Kathy because each one of them clown presents the potential clown taxi and a robo taxi Fleet Robo Taxi five trillion dollar evaluation because of robo tech I didn't think that we were going in that direction five trillion dollar you know we've done a lot of videos on this and um it's no secret that I think she and Jim Cramer are the dumbest people in the media when it comes to investing Kathy Wood does not understand investing at all she doesn't understand valuations she doesn't understand cautiousness she is really really really really really stupid that's me being very nice about it what do you think Mo I agree um this video is four minutes and 11 seconds we're 48 seconds through um this is when Tesla went down 10 that one day right so guys let's just start from the basics for those of you who love Tesla so much when it was a 4 15 a share and you told me the fundamentals didn't matter and of course you said that you didn't say it by your words you said it by your actions because if you care about fundamentals there's no way you could have Justified 415 dollars a share zero chance so now it's at 160 a share and I'm still saying it's overpriced I've been saying it for a while suddenly Kathy Wood the one from 160 a share on Arc down to 32 and now it's at 38 or so talks about Hurst she says that value investors originally she said they don't they don't understand disruption but then she uses the word value to talk about how deep value her companies are oh my god do I hate this person I literally generally hate this bride I shouldn't hate this person that's more reflection on me than on her right I should not care but I I care in the sense that there are people that go back look at the comments from February 2021 and videos we made when we criticized her when her art investment was at 160.
there were idiots out there saying shoes are hedge fund and you don't one she didn't have a hedge fund and two how do you feel at 32 80 lower 80 percent lower according to you guys who believe in her methodology and if you don't believe in her methodology because 65 of our viewers are subscribers of our Channel which means you're probably smart just to let you know if you understand valuation you realize that every investment the present value of all future cash flow for Tesla to have a five trillion dollar valuation in 2027 four years from now what has to happen to the company how many cars do they need to sell in order to have a five trillion dollar valuation at what margin if their bottom line margin is 10 they have to make 500 billion dollars a year in profit after taxes and if their margin overall that means that five trillion dollars in sales 5 trillion in sales with an average carb price of fifty thousand how many is that 100 million cars do me a favor I write on that one is that 100 million cars 13.75 million cars sold in 2022 in the United States last year okay new cars new cars well I don't think that includes trucks and SUVs um light Vehicles so let me do this it's a light vehicle either way I mean so let's do 5 trillion that's billion divided by 50 000.
average car price 100 million cars yeah how many cars how many new cars were sold worldwide this year how many new cars sold worldwide in 2022 last year 67 million cars last year so Tesla has to have fifty thousand dollar cars and be larger than the entire world market was last year four years from now and I will appoint this I was thinking over the weekend about Tesla because somebody in a group chat was talking about and I'm like they have four products in a pretty Niche area uh-huh how are you supposed to do that keep worldwide yeah well let's get it let's get even crazier let's say their bottom line profit margin of 10 that I was assuming let's say their Geniuses and get 20 meanwhile their gross margin in the best of months is 20 23 to 25.
let's say they make 20 bottom line margin that's still 50 million cars a year worldwide last year 67 million cars were sold in the entire world if you don't understand this concept I'm sorry to say this you're stupid if you just don't see how ridiculous this is you are stupid I don't feel bad for you I hope that you lose a lot of money I really really prayed the Jesus that I love so much dear Jesus please have stupid people like Kathy would lose all their money thank you did you heard me I mean we have a ceiling above us I don't know son of a I gotta go outside so in most areas of the world they do not sell a lot of brand new cars right yeah so not only are they going to be selling brand new cars but they're going to be selling brand new electric cars and brand new electric cars that have no way of charging because there's no network so how are you going to get to this number in the next four years like at least if it was 10 years 12 15 years from now I'd be like well we really know what's going to happen China's job it's four years for you guys yeah four years they had to sell 50 million cars at 20 bottom line margin here's the example I'll bet against that oh wait a second let me tell you how stupid that is Ferrari Ferrari has a gross margin of 50 that means every car they sell 50 48 of it is gross it goes to pay overhead and income taxes their bottom line margin isn't even 20 what's the gross margin on Tesla currently the gross margin in the last year was 23 and they need to make an average bottom line profit of 20 itself to sell 50 million cars at fifty thousand dollars each I have one thing to say to you if you believe this there you go can we watch more there you go you really want to watch more of this yeah I want to see what she has to say I might end up killing somebody we think it's it's more like last year uh but the robo taxi Fleet is really going to be or the robo taxi service is going to be um uh from a margin point of view more like a SAS business oh my God a SAS business from a margin perspective let me show you guys what she means by that that's awesome what's a SAS business let's pull up Oracle Oracle is a SAS business look at their bottom line Oracle gross margin right here of 77 percent well taxis are back baby she said that and I will say if she's right on that then okay sounds good we need to keep going oh my God Mo are we even a minute and a half in per minute six in I can't do this oh my God to maximize units uh because they have so much option value now yeah I mean I thought she was gonna challenge a little taxi Fleet for some time there's a lot of regulatory barriers it's very pretty technological uh involved too so soon can we actually see that realized and given the fact that you tweeted earlier today that you've got a a new valuation assessment of Tesla coming out how does that how does that fit into your price target for the stock going forward uh well uh price target for our stock and I think it's just hitting now uh for 2027 because we do have a five-year investment time Horizon is uh our expected value is roughly uh two thousand dollars and that's within a range of 1400 to 25 100 our bear and uh do you understand what this means a bare case of 1400 a share a bear case that's fantastic I'll go on here I'll go on I'll go I'll go I'll go say something and I want everybody to mark this down it is currently what's the date today May 1st it is currently 2 10 p.m on May 1st eastern time I want somebody to pull up this to this um this video in the next five years I think within the next five years Tesla will hit below 100 a share and stay there I think five years from now it'll be below a hundred dollars a share now I make a prediction based on emotions and based on all that stuff and if I'm wrong I'm wrong I'm fine with that but it's got to be over her bare case is triple when it hit in its peak triple it's bear case yeah it's bear case keep going put in the phone keep going and bull case now just Morgan on the regulatory side I actually think regulations are working in Tesla's favor oh uh for I think roughly three decades the number of Auto fatalities in the United States fell fell to the low 30 000 uh range it's been steady there for a while they've turned around in the last five years and moved up to 45.
oh has it really jumped that much uh and I think the pressure is on the national highway and Transportation safety Association to change something so it is looking carefully at Tesla's data and in and during investor day Tesla released some data that we don't think many people paid enough attention to uh the most important one is that wolf with full self-driving a Tesla vehicle gets into an accident every uh 3.2 million miles and that compares to one every 500 000 miles for the average car on the road okay so Kathy good afternoon it's John Ford I just want to clarify did you say a two thousand dollar right now is under 200 a share so even if you were to 10x that that would be an over five trillion dollar market cap is that what you're saying that is what we're saying uh we think that the robo taxi opportunity globally uh will um deliver eight to ten trillion yeah this is more like a 600 6 trillion dollar market cap for two thousand and uh is one of the most important investment opportunities of our lifetimes oh our lifetimes Kathy Wood will go down as one of the worst investors of our lifetime this is epic I'm just telling you that right now she has no understanding of reality and valuation she will go down as one of the worst investors of all time I can and she will eventually quit and make some Claim about I did everything I wanted to do I've said this many times she's going to say this she's going to say I'm gonna spend time with family Etc but it's all going to be because her the reason I know we're not close to Bear market yet to be done with this bear Market is she still has inflows this clown right here still has people giving her money she's into crypto and again if you believe in Bitcoin Bitcoin and Tesla are the I think the poster child bull market if you believe in crypto and you believe in Tesla you are double whammy stupid as an investment I mean Mo's got a Tesla I had a Tesla for two days I actually didn't like it very much but I still love I love Elon Musk I love what he's done with Twitter I think he's a Visionary and a brilliant man and people are just Lemmings and dumb so I'm done watching this video because 20 seconds left and I just don't want to hear yeah any more of this clown how many clowns can you fit into a Tesla that's the question thank you very much if you hate me comment below tell me you hate me if you like me subscribe I appreciate it um thanks very much guys take care
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