저자: JamieDimon · 외국인
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결론: 디몬은 미중 무역갈등이 금융 전반을 흔들고 있지만 JP모건 직접 영향은 제한적이라 보며, 종목·가격 방향에 대한 구체적 예측은 하지 않았다. 무역갈등: 미국의 중국 무역 불만에는 정당한 측면이 있고 고칠 필요가 있다고 봤다. 일본·유럽의 지지도 있다고 언급. 간접 영향: 고객사 100곳 중 일부는 크게, 일부는 전혀 영향이 없다. 공급망과 신뢰를 흔들어 시장 변동성을 키우고, 일부 투자 결정을 늦추게 한다. 중국 은행 경쟁: 중국계 은행 5대 글로벌 은행 중 다수, 상위 50곳 중 13곳이 중국계. 자산 규모는 JP모건의 약 2배이며 본토 기반이 커 해외 확장 경쟁이 실질적 위협이라고 봤다. 규제 문제: 미국 규제가 미국 은행의 중국 경쟁력을 약화시키는 부분이 있다고 지적. 중국 진출: 현재 중국 내 사업은 49% 지분 합작 형태로 제약이 많다. 단독 100% 투자은행 라이선스를 신청했고 획득을 희망. 일부 비은행 기업은 라이선스를 받는 등 개방이 시작됐다고 언급. 유럽·신흥국: 유럽 은행 인수 계획은 없으며 유기적 성장을 선호. 국가별 인구·교육·부 기준으로 확장. 리스크: 신흥시장 약세, 유럽 둔화 언급. 인수합병은 시스템·문화 통합 등 복잡성이 크다. 성장 전략: 미국 리테일에서 400개 지점 개설 계획. 무료 주식 거래 제공. Zelle 대응으로 Chase QuickPay 등 실시간 송금 시스템을 구축했고, 약 70개 은행이 연결됐으나 100%를 목표로 한다.
다듬은 글
yeah let me ask you about China because this is the trade fight that is really the the subject of the day certainly for this Administration has it impacted your business the trade fight with China yeah not directly so first of all the trade fight there are legitimate complaints about trade with China which have been laid out in excruciating detail by the administration I think the Chinese understand that by the way I think it's important we fix that all the business people I know say it's got to be fixed I think we have generally the support of Japan and Europe in fixing it so we need to do this you can how it gets done but it does so it doesn't directly affect us but affects our clients so if you look at 100 companies you know some are highly affected some aren't affected at all that's why you see all this different news you know people some people saying it's changing everything it does change Supply chains confidence I think it's causing some of the volatility you see in the marketplace and C certain people have to hold back decisions because if you're going to build something and you don't know what the trade deal is going to be with Mexico China Vietnam Etc you may wait so I do think it kind of slows down some types of C investment over time we do we do need to face the issue you've had an incredible 10 years 20 years at at JPM in terms of market share the leader in the industry and yet the competitive landscape is changing as a result of the rising of China what's your take on that I mean I don't think people are worried about Chinese Banks coming in and stealing your companies your your customers in America but what about the global Marketplace the Chinese Banks want that market share and we have a new report out that says the top five Global banks are Chinese 13 of the top 50 are Chinese so years ago I wrote about the Chinese competition in my Chairman's letter about they're coming and Dick Cheney actually called me and said what are you complaining about that for you really mean I said yeah I mean it so those Banks you're talking about now earn some almost twice as much money as us in terms of assets not better than we are but in terms of assets they're twice the size they have a huge Home Market they have a strategic reason to go overseas I to serve Chinese companies overseas they will be huge competition for us and so I do think that's legitimate but again you know me I always we're going to have competition from everywhere whether it's big Chinese Banks or successful Banks here recovery Banks there or or or fintech companies there's going to be competition so my job is to do the best I can from my company knowing it's coming whether it's from the Chinese or not but what's very important when it comes to Chinese competition is that we not be hamstrung in competing with the Chinese so certain American regulations I'm not complaining about it make it harder for us to comp with the Chinese and I do think at one point The Regulators to say that we don't want to put a JP Morgan or any other American Bank in the position where it's disadvantaged well you can't go to China and open up a bank and own it out and out right no we've applied for a license and I still hope when all this stuff gets settled that we actually get a license and can build you know a 100% owned uh major Investment Bank they do everything we can do in Hong Kong London Singapore New York that we could do in Shanghai effectively but right now you're going to have to go in as a joint venture 49% owned right yeah we are we have limited ability in what we can do there but the Chinese have told us that they they going to open up this is one of the things that people complain about they have all these industries they have not opened up they've said publicly and I'm so I'm not making this up they've said it to individuals companies that they're going to start opening up those companies soon so in fact I know a compan companies that got their license so they are actually doing some of that today okay not Banks non Banks but but other companies yeah there are certain industries that are deemed off limits what about the rest of the world I mean I think Apple had an issue recently because of weakness in the Emerging Markets um you also have obviously slowing in Europe would you consider buying a lender in Europe no why not there's no reason for us to buy a lender in Europe I mean you know if you said to me I want to serve my European clients remember there we do in corporate Investment Banking Asset Management I would add salespeople systems Ops capability I do not need to buy another lender you know merges are very difficult you know they're difficult on people you have to consolidate systems and cultures and you have to drisk it uh it's it's complicated I'd rather just grow organically so how do you grow organically you've had an incredible run in terms of being the leader in the industry market share gains even this last year incredible market share gains when others were falling short how do you keep that growth going so internationally we look at country by country we look at the growth in the population the education the wealth the markets McKenzie did a great report a couple years ago that how many billion dollar Revenue companies there are it's going to go from like 8,000 to 15,000 you can almost do it country by country so you can kind of say which our our set who we want to cover and then we cover bankers and all all the support that means credit legal risk compliance HR Real Estate to support that business in a country so we do that literally country by country the United States in retail you know we announced we're opening 400 branches so we've already opened our first in in Boston DC soon in Philadelphia uh and we go in we do small business Landing stuff so 400 branches and then maybe have to add another 400 so we're we'll have organic growth and then I didn't bring my phone but no we now you can buy and sell stock for free on you invest so if you are a sapphire banking account you can buy and sell stock for free and we it may not be the best product out there but we're going to make it better every day so that we're giving our clients more things to increase their satisfaction while they should bank with us I'm really glad you brought that up because zel has been on the market for a long time where you could transfer money from person to person right yeah that's JP morget product yeah so as a management you we always look at things we did wrong I mean the banking industry should have done something like zel years ago so we had something called Chase quick pay and the banks we're able to move money within in the bank so I can move money to you if you were Chase account but obviously if you're going to move money like you're going to compete with venmo or other folks out there you have moved to everybody so the banks built a system which is open to all banks now that you basically build a little software to be part of so you can move money real time using your your phone number or your email and automatically link it to your account so I can move money real time safely uh securely uh and it's great it's big it's growing rapidly and and I think I got the exact number maybe 70 Banks hooked up you know which is maybe 60 or 70% of American uh consumers but we want to be 100% and the more you have hooked up the more valuable is to everybody else so we should have done it sooner I'm I'm mad we didn't but we did you know we punished ourselves we moved on and all the banks collaborated to get that done
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