저자: JamieDimon · 외국인
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제이미 다이먼은 경기 침체는 언젠가 올 것이지만 시점은 모른다며, 현재 경제는 둔화일 뿐 침체 신호로 보지 않는다고 말함. 핵심 주장: 시장이 단기 우려에 과잉 반응하고 있다고 봄. 주가 PER이 18배에서 16배로 낮아진 것은 성장 둔화·무역전쟁 우려에 따른 합리적 조정이라고 설명. 경제 전망: 2019년 미국 경제는 양호한 성장이 예상되며, 최근 발표된 고용지표(31.2만 개 신규 고용)가 강했다고 언급. 연준이 금리를 정상화하는 과정 자체는 성장이 좋다면 바람직하다고 봄. 금리 및 연준: 연준이 데이터 의존적으로 움직이며 파월 의장을 신뢰한다고 밝힘. 정상 상태로는 단기금리 3%, 10년물 4% 수준이 바람직하다고 언급. 대차대조표 축소(QE 되돌리기)는 금리 상승 효과를 낼 수 있으나 정확한 영향은 불확실하다고 봄. 금융 환경 및 경쟁: 핀테크·빅테크(아마존 등)·해외기업·중소형 은행과의 경쟁이 심화되고 있으나, 이를 두려워하지 않고 노력으로 극복하겠다는 입장. 중소은행 규제 완화는 지지. 리스크: 무역전쟁, 지정학적 이슈, 중국 등이 주요 불확실성으로 제시. 다만 침체 시점은 예측 불가. 과거 사례 언급: 1974·1982 침체, 1987 주식시장 붕괴, 인터넷 버블 등은 미국 경제를 근본적으로 훼손하지 못했다고 평가.
다듬은 글
we're kicking off this hour with part 2 of my exclusive interview with JP Morgan chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon he weighed in on rising competition and the threat of Amazon especially after the recent Wall Street Journal article calling him an Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos frenemies when a friend of meze were friends well I have enormous respect and Trust and Jeff yeah they're gonna do what they want to do alright so this is I always tell people well there's Jeff competing and obviously you've got a great competitive all time but it could be anyone out there FinTech companies tech companies foreign companies when you're in my shoes you have to assume they're coming you have to assume they're good you've got to give you people to work inside so we can win in the marketplace and I'm not gonna win by being scared I'm gonna win by working hard and and doing this thing that we need to do so they're already you know some of these people already in you know they have Amazon pay and people already have a lot of different things they're working on our job is to the best we can and we'll remember what when to collaborate or compete with anybody out there that has the competitive landscape gotten tougher you've got China here you've got technology here trying to get market share you've got the smaller banks trying to get some market share and they've got a much better regulatory environment that they face then the larger bank which we support by the way where were the biggest banks - the smaller banks community banks we thought they should have record - a relief we were a hundred percent support of that I hope you know that it works I hope that they do good thing they do things that we can't and so the competitive environment has gone tougher but I think it's good so this isn't remember you want competition you want innovation you want growth and it's kind of it's almost like I say is it normalized everyone's competing again that's good you know for a while some people wouldn't touch financial services you know people had had to make up for mistakes in the past some competitors were taking off the playing field know that you shouldn't give too much comfort from that the normal state of affairs you have tough competition speaking of normalised the Federal Reserve is trying to normalize interest rates now raising rates from these rock-bottom levels that we were at is the Fed doing the right thing in your view how many Fed hikes do you think we should see in the year ahead and how many might we say yeah I remind people years ago you know the Fed didn't forecast and all that type of thing Paul Volcker raised rates effectively 200 basis points in this Sunday night no one complete knows the future so the Fed obviously has to be data dependent and I think that Dad dependencies both interest rates and maybe how they even managed to balance you a little bit they are very bright people I have enormous respect for chairman Powell and they'll look at the situation and adjusted accordingly but my own view is if we had good growth raising rates normalizing some normalize would be the kind of 3% of short end and maybe 4% of tenure is a good thing now obviously if we're not growing rapidly and the raising rates that's not as bad or it's because of inflation so that's what the judgement calls they have to make when should they do it but the American public is far better off with having good growth and rates going up a little bit then not good growth and rates not going up yeah but the problem is is the feds doing it two pronged right there are raising rates on the one hand but then they're unwinding this enormous balance sheet and remember when the balance sheet was 750 billion dollars they took it all the way up to four and a half trillion dollars it was good for banks and the economy when they were adding all of this stimulus it's got to be bad that they're taking it away now I think the better way to look is we don't know exactly what it did so we know you know you can hypothesize that it raised prices and financial prices and it probably did and our best economists think it maybe raised a ten year rate by one percent you know stock price a little bit but you're absolutely correct we don't know exactly what it did so it's hard to know exactly with the reverses but remember the Fed doesn't have to do everything they can stop they could change their mind they have a lot of tools that are supposed so so I'm not worried about their kind of navigating this change they're you know going to what I call a more normal environment that normal environment by in my view will one day mean they're not gonna be forecasting rates they will simply be telling the world that will always be dad dependent looking a lot of different things that react to that so what does this environment feel like then to you because you've seen so many cycles and I remember back in the 90s when the Fed raised rates twice by 50 basis points and then 75 basis points in one shot and then that year I believe it was 94 95 the markets soared so what how would you compare this period that we're in right now yeah you know you people they sometimes they just worry too much you know like all these years we've had enormous growth the American economy and you know we've lived through very tough times I can go back to 74 recession the 82 recession and then things that that looked dramatic but we're new is bad like the 87 market crash or even the internet bubble where it didn't destroy the American cop it kind of caused a huge pause or something like that and I look at this a little bit more like we're just slowing down a little bit a lot of concerns out there a lot of geopolitical issues you know sentiment went from kind of global synchronised growth to maybe you'll be bad maybe go into recession so you know it doesn't look to me like that's taking place I think it is just a slowdown and that you know you had good jobs data recently yeah so as data comes out around the world in January in February and it's not so bad people may take a breath take a deep breath and you know Marx will open up and you know there does that you know there will be a recession one day so people saying oh it's gonna be recession yeah I don't know when it's gonna be but there will there will be one if something will trigger and it'll be a little bit different than last one so you don't think markets though are indicating a recession is on the horizon over the near term then no I think markets are overreacting to short term send them in around a whole bunch of complex issues what about the shrinkage in money supply but I actually I said some of it is a rational response so when you know stock prices are eighteen to PE and now they're it's sixteen because you think there could be a slower growth higher chance recession high chance or trade war that is a rational adjustment you shouldn't say that that's irrational yeah you know I would say that's probably pretty rational you pay less under that environment because you think the future is gonna be very difficult it was before actually you know better than I do but when I think about things the Federal Reserve makes a pivot they say there are no rush earnings have been pretty strong we just had great jobs numbers on Friday 312 thousand jobs created valuations are better after the last three months seems like me we could be poised for a ripple on rally yeah that's why I think people reacted I don't know what ripple in rally but I think you're gonna have decent growth in 2019 in America and therefore Senate may reverse course a little bit down the road I hate guessing about the future I run my business like serving you as a client right and then we'd navigate the ups and downs of markets but just to be clear when you look at what happened in the inversion or when you look at the no high-yield debt issuance that's real-time and that's telling us something right now it's not speculating yeah III think that's true but again I look at the inversion a little bit because of QE I wouldn't give it as quite high importance as I would before we don't know the exact effect of QE and I still suspect that somehow that tenure bond today should be a 4% and I've been wrong about that but you know you've had 2% inflation a normal 10-year bond rate is 4% and we don't have that and that may be because if not just us QE by the way so if you're the Federal Reserve you've had QE around the world there for a long time the ECB was buying a hundred percent of sovereign debt issuance and in Europe and for a couple years that was true here that's we've never seen something like that before maybe during World War two we had some of that but you know so we don't know exactly what the reversal be but I you have a little faith and that our folks will navigate it which is my point and the money supply it has is a very different situation than it was in the good ol days so just that worry you you sell money so yes again I've written about this concern regulatory policy and monetary policy are interlinked in a completely different way they were before and I don't fully understand the full effect of that so I do think reversing QE in a different regulatory environment may have a different effect when we think but on the other hand the feds not going to sit there and ignore it they know that too and they'll respond accordingly
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