Nvidia Stock (NVDA) Shareholders MUST DO THIS BEFORE EARNINGS

요약 보기

엔비디아 실적 발표(수요일 장후)를 앞두고 데이터센터 매출이 핵심 변수라고 주장. 시장 기대치는 매출 약 433억 달러, 주당순이익 0.88달러, 데이터센터 매출 392억 달러(전년 225억 달러 대비 약 74% 증가). 실적이 기대에 못 미치면 주가가 120달러까지 조정, 기대 이상이면 140~150달러까지 상승 가능성을 제시. 연초 대비 주가는 약 -3.55%. 실제 발언 중 방향 예측은 상승 쪽 기대(LEAP 콜옵션 매수 전략 언급)이나 단기 확신은 약하게 표현됨. 지금은 뚜렷한 방향 베팅보다는 변동성 확대 경계 톤.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Be careful. This week, Nvidia is reporting earnings and it's going to be absolutely massive for investors. And if you do the right thing, you're going to make a lot of money. If you do the wrong thing, you potentially can lose a lot of the gains that you have on Nvidia or even go lower if you recently bought it at these levels.

02. So, I need you to take the beer goggles off. I need you to turn on your thinking cap on and let's talk about Nvidia, the earnings that are coming out and what to watch out for to take advantage of the earnings and actually understand what is happening with the stock. So, first of all, Nvidia, they are going to be reporting fiscal first quarter results after the bell on Wednesday and this is going to be the most anticipated event of the entire season or this year.

03. This may be the biggest earnings quarter because we have just come back from a Wshaped recovery. And this W-shaped recovery is actually very fragile right now. I've been making a couple videos here on YouTube saying be careful with the entire market right now because it's very fragile and we just came from a very choppy place and going forward you can't just expect the market is going to go up.

04. You actually need to be careful in this choppy market. So, Nvidia, it has fluctuated wildly since the start of this year. And as the company has dealt with many setbacks, ranging from Trump's administration ban on shipments of its H20 chips bound for China to concerns related to expected semiconductor tariffs, Nvidia has been in a hard place.

05. You can see right now year to date, the stock is essentially down 3.55%. That means that this year the returns are near zero. But with earnings, because earnings really change the minds of Wall Street, give a new picture of the stock's future. If earnings come in very good, and some key numbers, which I'm going to talk about very soon, come in above expectations, this stock can rise to 140, 145, $150 per share.

06. However, if investors are disappointed, if investors even feel a little bit disappointed, even if numbers come in good, but the expectations are off from what investors want to see, then the stock can pull back to 120. So, I expect either a swing of $10 to $15 in either direction. And I'm going to tell you what to look out for.

07. For the quarter, Nvidia is expected to report adjusted earnings per share of 88 cents on revenue of $43.3 billion. According to Bloomberg analyst consensus data, the company report adjusted EPS of 61 cents on revenue of 26 billion in the same period last year. Guys, do you know how insane that is? It is absolutely wild to see a company go from 26 billion to 43 billion.

08. This is exactly why the stock has been going up. That's why I've been trading options on Nvidia because it's one of the most lucrative opportunities because of AI. AI is the way to get rich right now. AI is taking over jobs. AI is increasing productivity. And this is an opportunity. That's why I'm making a very important video right now.

09. So, Wall Street anticipates Nvidia data center revenue to top out at $39.2 2 billion, up from $22.5 billion, which works out to about 74% year-over-year increase. The data center business is the most important business for Nvidia, hands down. Gaming revenue, the company's second largest segment, is set to hit $2.8 billion, up from 2.6.

10. So, not a whole lot of massive gains, but hey, as the second largest sector or the piece of their business, it's good to see some growth coming in. Now, I need you to understand investor psychology, guys, because you're not really playing the numbers game. I told you the numbers, but what's really important is what are other people doing?

11. What are they thinking? Because the entire market is just a psychology game. That's why in my Discord community, I'm always focused on support, resistance, technical analysis. And that's as important as is fundamental analysis because this is a game right here. You have to be emotionally strong and you also have to psychologically understand why the stock is at this level right now.

12. Because I'll tell you this, the market is manipulated in many different ways. If you see, it's pretty much designed to take the money from you. But if you know what you're doing and you're using simple strategies and options or you're just a stock investor and you understand when to buy the stock, how long to hold the stock for, you're fine.

13. It's really those short-term traders, the day traders, the people that are looking for an easy solution, the people that want to get rich overnight, those are the people that are unlikely to get results. If you're in my community and you have a long-term mindset, you almost have no chance not to win in the long term.

14. It's hard to lose. And I'll show you some option strategies in a little bit, but I want to talk about the most important number for investors to watch out for with Nvidia right now. And that is going to be the data center revenue. And here's why. Okay, here's what to look out for. Here's why. And here's how to spot the opportunity.

15. And if it comes in below, you know, you know to sell. Okay? I'm not married to the stock. I'm not married to any of the stocks I cover. I'm only married to driving results for my community. So if you appreciate my mindset, please make sure to subscribe to the YouTube channel here and I'm going to keep making money for us.

16. Okay. So number one, it's the AI growth barometer. Nvidia's data center segment is almost entirely driven by AI infrastructure. Okay. Primarily sales of GPUs to power large language models or LLMs and AI training workloads. So this is going to be very important and the AI barometer is why people are invested in Nvidia to begin with.

17. So, if the AI barometer is off, it's all messed up. All right, but I expect it to be really good numbers. I'm buying it bicep over tricep, guys, because I think that Nvidia is going to report pretty good numbers. I think they're going to report good numbers. My only concern is how will investors react?

18. And that's going to be something that I'm going to be looking out for Wednesday after close. So a huge beat or miss here on the AI space or the AI infrastructure play or the data center business is what I'm trying to get at is going to be the biggest determining factor of the stock's move. Now also it does drive the entire valuation narrative because of course it's the biggest part of Nvidia.

19. So Wall Street is pricing Nvidia not like a semiconductor company but like a once in a generation growth engine. So the stock is not cheap but it's also not expensive. The PE ratio is actually very good. So if we actually scroll down here, the PE ratio is 44, but given the growth, the PE ratio will rapidly decline given future projections.

20. Okay, I talked about this in a recent video of mine that I said Dollar General versus Costco, right? It's very important for you to understand that a company that is losing revenue may look cheap on a PE ratio but actually be a bad stock. Whereas a stock that has a high PE ratio may actually be a great stock and it may actually be a cheap valuation given the future growth.

21. Okay, that's another thing that I talk about with Palunteer is that Palanteer has a very high PE ratio, but that can be very misleading if you don't understand how to actually digest the number. Now, for Nvidia, it's not incredibly high. 44 is just a little bit higher than the S&P 500. And I would say that this is a perfectly okay number.

22. And given that earnings are growing, I'm actually looking at the valuation as pretty cheap to be honest with you. So if data center revenue comes in below expectations which are, you know, currently 39.2 billion, the AI bubble narrative will be more clear in the market and we're going to see the market spooked.

23. We're going to see investors be a bit, you know, more cautious because investors aren't stupid, okay? They're very smart. Investors are some of the smartest people in the world. And if Nvidia comes in a little bit under the narrative, then you can expect the stock to kind of pop and the AI bubble may look a little bit more apparent.

24. Okay, by the way, just because we're in a bubble doesn't mean that it's going to crash anytime soon. We may actually go from the bubble valuations which are fairly high, talent specifically, but this can all grow into the valuation if everything goes according to plan. So also EPS and total revenue, they're now lagging indicators.

25. So EPS and topline revenue are still important, but they're the result of strong performance in data center. And if that number one data center revenue is hot, then the rest really really just follows. So we only really need one data point. Okay? Because you can tell the whole entire health of the business by just looking at one data point.

26. It's kind of like if you were to look at a human, a man, and his testosterone is high, well, it's a good factor that the rest of his body is going well, right? He's getting the vitamin D, he's getting good sleep, he's going to the gym, etc. Right? So when you look at one important metric, it can tell you a really good story even without understanding the full entire story of you know for example the lipid panel of of people and stuff.

27. But here with with the stock knowing just data center revenue will tell you the full story. Basically even if they spend a little bit more money on stockbased compensation even if they have other components of their business that isn't really as aligned I'm telling you data center revenue is going to drive the entire story of the earnings call and the stock.

28. So watch out for that. And it also tells a global story. So because of export restrictions, right? So Biden's diffusion rule limiting sales to China. A strong data center number implies resilient demand across the US Middle East and non-restricted companies. And this also means that it's also going to show whether Nvidia has effectively pivoted from China dependence.

29. Now obviously they can sell some stuff just not not the top stuff, right? Because we want to be competitive with China. And I personally don't have anything against China. I think it's it's good to see economies evolve and grow which China is doing but of course US wants to be competitive and there's a lot of stuff on the politics side which I'm going to stay out of because my job is only to make you money.

30. So I want to talk a little bit and and two two two quick things I want to talk about is I want to talk about the investor psychology angle. Okay. And then we'll wrap it up with some option positions and I'll show you actually some leap options. So if you made it this far in the video, I'm going to reward you guys with some good option trading knowledge.

31. All right, let's talk about the investor psychology angle real fast. So most investors, they don't really read earnings reports. A lot of you guys are new, which is fine. I work with a lot of folks who are new to trading and new to options who want to create a retirement income stream and use their assets and the capital that they have to retire and generate income on a consistent basis.

32. That's completely okay. It's also okay not to have to read earnings reports because many of you guys are doctors, lawyers, engineers, and dentists. So, I work with a lot of you guys and I think it's okay not to read earnings reports because it is a lot of time and not everyone has time nor do you really need a lot of time to be a good investor.

33. So, looking at the investor angle, a lot of people are looking at earnings reports, but many are not and they're just going to be latching on to a few key features. So, I just saved you a whole lot of time. You don't have to read no annual reports. Just look at data center revenue and end the story.

34. Now, let's talk about the options that I'm going to be looking at. So, right now I have Nvidia through a couple of ETFs that I've been trading in my community. I've been a lot more of a fan of ETF trading. It's a lot safer and for generating passive and consistent income, I have actually been relying a lot on ETFs.

35. So, I don't currently have a direct position in this public portfolio on Nvidia, but I am going to be looking at using some of my capital because I do have some more capital to outlay and dish out. So one thing that I'd be looking at is looking at a LEAP option. Okay, so with the LEAP option, you can use small amount of capital to really generate a big return.

36. Now there are ways to also generate income on LEAP options, but I first of all want to just start off with buying a regular LEAP option. So buying a regular LEAP option, you want to do so in the money. So let's buy an in the money leap here at 115. I'm going to show you. And that's because my intuition told me that it's around a 70 delta.

37. So a 70 delta is pretty good because 70 delta is really the sweet spot. If you look for outofthe-oney options, they have low probability of success with buying. And if you look at very high delta options, then they're going to be very expensive. So you're not really getting the most bang for your buck because you're going to be paying a very high price.

38. Like you can see here, I'm going to just open up the 115 because that's the sweet spot. But if I go down here and I go for an option that's like 93, the premium becomes very high. versus if I go out very far out of the money. Let's say I'm going to bet on a 148 or like let's say 150. Well, the premium is lower, but the chances of this happening are also under 50%.

39. So, the chances are not as high of it being in the money. So, it's not going to be as beneficial. It's not the sweet spot for me for the best ideal return. Even though I'll be honest with you, there is no ideal return. There's only trade-offs in option trading. So, you can also buy an out- of-the- money option.

40. Just know that this option has a less chance of expiring in the money, but it'll still do the job in terms of going up in value. In fact, if I open up a second LEAP option here, you can actually open up multiple LEAP options. So, you can buy one contract for 115, you can buy another contract for 120, another contract for 125 to make a bullish long-term bet on Nvidia stock going up without having to put up, you know, a 100 shares worth of capital.

41. So, not everyone wants to buy a 100 shares, which is like $13,000, when for $3,000, they can basically get the same right to buying a 100 shares. And this is where you can turn a couple thousand, say $3,000, let me go over this example right now. This 115 call option, right? If Nvidia were to go to 150, this call option would basically be worth 35.

42. Okay? So, at expiration, you would actually not make that much money because Nvidia already has fairly expensive options. So, if it only went up to 150, then essentially here you would have $35 in the money, right? You would have $35 in the money. 150 minus15 is $35, but the premium is 30. So, you're only going to make $5 on 30, which is an 18% return.

43. Not too bad, but as you can tell, the better strategy here would be to close this position earlier. So, you don't want to wait till expiration. What you want to do is you want to make a bullish bet with the LEAP option. And as Nvidia goes up and increases in value, then you basically close this for a profit.

44. And what you can see here is in the short term, this is at expiration right here. So this is not going to accurately show you what happens in between. But what would happen if Nvidia were to simply go up, I'll show you an example using delta. Okay? So if it were to go up by $10, this option would increase by $7.

45. Okay? So, even a short-term move of $10 here, you would get $7, which would give you a 20% return, which can absolutely happen at earnings. Okay? So, by buying this LEAP option, you can actually benefit 20% in the in a very short amount of time. Just take your profit and go. Now, if Nvidia does not perform super well, then it's still leap option.

46. So, you still can hold it longer and wait for Nvidia to recover as it likely is to do so. So, in the short term, I think it'll go up. I'm not a genie. I don't know. So, if it goes down, you can still hold this LEAP option. And that's why a leap option is one of the most beneficial strategies on Nvidia right now because you can put up less capital, get that upside, make a bullish bet, and yeah, really profit from what I think will be a strong earnings quarter where Nvidia will report good numbers and more investors will get excited about Nvidia and realize that the valuation is pretty fair right now.

47. So, my plan this week when the market opens up on Tuesday is I will be buying likely some LEAP options in small quantities, but actually my favorite strategy is going to be running the wheel strategy and selling put options and covered calls. So, I don't have enough time in this video, but if you'd like to see my plays live, it is in the Discord community is going to be the first link in the description.

48. It's a free consultation. You can book a call and learn more about the Discord community. We have some discounts going on right now and you can book a free call and learn more about it by scheduling demo consultations. So, thanks so much and I will catch you in the next